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About Rick Lucks - RotoBaller
Hello fellow Rotoballers!
I'm a guy that was reading fantasy baseball magazines before I was old enough to legally play. Now that I am, lets win some leagues together!
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Rick Lucks - RotoBaller has written 501 articles so far, you can find them below.
Champ or Chump: Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Roughly a week into the season, no fewer than 20 percent of MLB teams are shelved due to coronavirus concerns. In all probability, your roster has a ton of players who are too good to drop yet aren't playing in the immediate future. Most of the affected players haven't been placed on the IL yet... Read More
Champ or Chump: Nate Pearson
The MLB season is finally underway, and a lot of what fantasy owners "knew" before the first pitch has already fallen apart. Juan Soto has tested positive for COVID-19, leaving both the Nationals and a lot of fantasy rosters without a superstar talent for the foreseeable future. Clayton Kershaw was scratched from his Opening Day... Read More
ADP Champ or Chump: Jon Berti
Ever since the shortened season's rules were announced, it seems like fantasy owners obsessed over what it would mean for their pitching staff. Will my pitchers throw enough to get wins? Will teams use openers regularly? These are all valid questions, but owners would be wise to remember that pitching is only one-half of standard... Read More
ADP Champ or Chump: Kenta Maeda
Generally speaking, ADP makes sense even if you don't agree with it. For example, this author believes that Kevin Cron would break out in a Pete Alonso manner if Arizona gave him everyday reps, but his path to playing time is questionable even with the recent announcement that NL clubs will have a DH this... Read More
ADP Champ or Chump: Mike Minor
How will the shortened MLB season impact the fantasy game? This question is foremost on many owners' minds, and one of the most common responses has been to value workhorse pitchers who rack up decisions more highly. Owners are encouraged to draft studs like Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, but realistically you won't be able... Read More
ADP Champ or Chump: Seth Lugo
Using a reliever to improve your fantasy squad's ratios has become a trendy strategy, but this author doesn't really get the hype. Sure, it's great if you correctly identify which middle reliever will suddenly morph into a strikeout stud with a microscopic ERA, but it seems like the kind of strategy that requires hindsight to... Read More
Four Things I Wish I Knew Before My First "Only" Draft
If you're looking to liven up your fantasy experience, trying your hand at an Only league could be a great way to bring a fresh perspective to one of your favorite pastimes. While standard mixed leagues are largely a race to accumulate as many elite performers as possible, Only leagues allow owners to demonstrate their... Read More
Making Sense of ADP
ADP, or Average Draft Position, is one of the most commonly cited statistics in fantasy baseball discourse. It allows owners to look at a single number and quickly determine a player's market value, making it easier to identify potential value picks in a draft. Furthermore, fantasy analysts can use it to determine how a particular... Read More
Kyle Gibson (SP, TEX) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleepers
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~310-325 CURRENT ADP: ~336 overall ANALYSIS: During the 2019 season, Kyle Gibson posted a 13-7 record and 4.84 ERA over 160 innings, but his 3.80 xFIP was right in line with the 3.62 ERA and 3.91 xFIP that he posted in 2018. His 22.7 K% last year was also a career-best, though... Read More
ADP Champ or Chump Spotlight: Bo Bichette
It's easy to joke that the 2020 Toronto Blue Jays will have the last names of a 1990's All-Star team, but the kids have a realistic shot at surpassing their fathers. This author isn't as high on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as most, but Cavan Biggio looks like an advanced hitter with the potential to blend... Read More
Caleb Smith (SP, MIA) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleeper
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~215-225 CURRENT ADP: ~247 overall ANALYSIS: The Marlins aren't anybody's idea of a good team, and Caleb Smith's 4.52 ERA and 5.05 xFIP over 153 1/3 IP in 2019 aren't exciting. However, there is a lot of potential in this package. Smith's fastball combines an above-average spin rate (2,425 RPM) with elite... Read More
ADP Champ or Chump Spotlight: Gleyber Torres
When people think of Gleyber Torres, the first thing that springs to mind is the fact that he completely obliterated the Baltimore Orioles in 2019 to the tune of .394/.467/1.045 with 13 HR. His supporters claim that the Orioles are still terrible, so Torres will be able to fatten up his stat line again. His... Read More
ADP Champ or Chump Spotlight: Pete Alonso
Peter Alonso was a hyped name heading into the 2019 MLB season. FanGraphs was optimistic, giving him a perfect 80 grade on raw power along with a 70 future grade for game power. He was ranked as the top first-base prospect (and 51st overall) by MLB Pipeline, with scouts noting an advanced ability to access his... Read More
ADP Champ or Chump Spotlight: Keston Hiura
With the entire MLB world in a holding pattern due to Coronavirus concerns, now is a great time to delve more deeply into fantasy profiles than you ever have before. One player who warrants a closer look is Keston Hiura, the 23-year-old second baseman for the Milwaukee Brewers. Hiura was a regular on top prospect... Read More
ADP Champ or Chump Spotlight: Eloy Jimenez
Considering that the Coronavirus has delayed the season indefinitely, it's a great opportunity to try changing up the formatting of this column. We're going to take a deep look into one player, spending time on his MiLB numbers in addition to MLB peripheral stats in order to paint a truly complete picture of his prospects... Read More
ADP Champ or Chump: Cavan Biggio and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The Toronto Blue Jays are an intriguing team. Projections don't love them, but their lineup is filled with young guys who have the potential to exceed them. Their rotation also looks solid if healthy, something that may be more likely now that a full workload will be more like 120 IP than 200. Needless to... Read More
ADP Champ or Chump: Kyle Gibson and Michael Brantley
Many fantasy owners fall into the trap of thinking that upside wins leagues -- it doesn't. Profit, or getting more production than you paid for, wins leagues. The upside of a top prospect can be one way of securing profit if they pan out right away, but there are other, more reliable forms of profit... Read More
ADP Champ or Chump: Niko Goodrum and Jose Altuve
Auctions are an unpredictable draft format by nature, and these uncertain times make them all the more so. The present author participated in an auction this past weekend and was able to purchase two noteworthy players at significant discounts. One of those players was a $1 flier on Niko Goodrum, a player who offers an... Read More
ADP Champ or Chump: Freddy Peralta and Ken Giles
The conventional fantasy wisdom this season seems to be that you need to devote a lot of draft resources to pitching. The logic goes that ace starters are so much better than other arms that you need to have at least one before the end of the third round in standard 12-team leagues. Furthermore, experts... Read More
Rick Lucks's Bold Predictions for 2020
While the coronavirus has delayed the start of the MLB season, Bold Prediction season is in full-swing here at Rotoballer. Not knowing how many games will actually be played makes numerical positions difficult, as 30 HR are a lot more impressive over 100 games than 162. That said, I've tried to base the predictions below... Read More
ADP Champ or Chump: Michael Conforto and Mike Clevinger
In the wake of the coronavirus, Major League Baseball games won't be starting on schedule. While there are obviously more important things going on right now than fantasy baseball, we baseball junkies have to do something to distract ourselves from losing one of our favorite hobbies. One way to do this is to try and... Read More
ADP Champ or Chump: Christian Walker and Luis Robert
Fantasy owners love prospects, especially shiny new toys that they've never had an opportunity to play with before. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was drafted very highly last season, but his fantasy production didn't really live up to his draft-day cost even after Toronto finished playing service time games with him. This year, Luis Robert is poised... Read More
Kole Calhoun (OF, ARI) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleeper
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~280 CURRENT ADP: ~298 overall ANALYSIS: Kole Calhoun hit .232/.325/.467 with 33 HR over 632 PAs for the Angels in 2019 before signing with Arizona as a free agent. Thirty-three bombs are nothing to sneeze at, and his peripherals suggest that his power uptick was real. Calhoun's 22.9% HR/FB last season was... Read More
ADP Champ or Chump: Kole Calhoun and Rafael Devers
Welcome! This column takes a deep dive into two player profiles to determine if they represent value at their current draft day cost or if you would be better off looking at similarly-priced options. We incorporate every grain of relevant data we can, including info from Baseball Savant, Roster Resource, FanGraphs, FantasyPros, and Baseball Prospectus.... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: MiLB Stats
Once you've grown accustomed to having advanced tools to help make fantasy decisions, it can feel disorientating to be without them. Prospects are increasingly becoming a focal point in both real and fantasy baseball, but the minors simply do not have all of the data publically available for MLB players. For example, advanced plate discipline... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Ballpark Factors
If you have ever selected a streamable pitcher based on home park or benched an otherwise must-start arm at Coors Field, you already know how much a stadium can impact a player's bottom line. Ballpark Factors quantify the influence each stadium has, allowing you to make the most of your fantasy team's real-life schedule. Today,... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Expected Stats
Statcast is a valuable tool for fantasy analysis, and it can be easy to look at a stat called "Expected Batting Average" and blindly use it as your projection moving forward. Of course, proper use of these metrics is a little bit more nuanced than that. First, a disclaimer: This article is about the "Expected... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitcher Statcast
Statcast metrics such as Barrels and Brls/BBE are great ways to evaluate a batter's performance, so it is only natural to assume that the metrics would be predictive for pitchers as well. As much as batters want to hit a Barrel every time, pitchers want to avoid them at all costs. Yet there is evidence... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Spin Rate
Spin rate has become one of the most recognizable Statcast metrics, with supporters of a given pitcher highlighting his spin rates to make their case. Unfortunately, the baseball world has done a lousy job conveying what spin rate really means. The result has been a ton of owners who know that spin rate exists, but... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitch Info
One of the most fundamental questions in fantasy sports is if a player's current performance is sustainable. More than any other sport, baseball has a slew of statistical measures that can be dissected in numerous ways to analyze player performance. Pitch Info is a publicly-available pitch tracking system that provides a lot of different data to... Read More
