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Fantasy Baseball draft season is in full swing, and that goes for more than just redraft leagues; we are talking best-ball formats. Best-ball leagues have been gaining traction in recent years and for good reason. Drafts start almost immediately after the previous season ends for those looking for an offseason fantasy fix. Best-ball drafts are also a great way to start learning the player pool for the upcoming season, one of the more essential parts of draft prep. Lastly, it allows players to learn the player pool with a little skin in the game that mock drafts do not allow.
With best-ball drafts gaining steam, we are pumping out more best-ball content at RotoBaller. I've already given my Best-Ball Targets and Best-Ball Fades for the premium draft guide and will now produce a three-part series on late-round targets. This first article will focus on late-round best-ball infield targets, followed by late-round outfield and late-round pitching targets.
These targets may vary slightly from standard, 5x5 redraft leagues due to the changes in scoring systems. Most best-ball leagues are points-based systems that benefit innings pitched and OBP more than “normal” formats. There are a few different sites to play best-ball on, but we will focus on Fantrax and NFBC Cutline leagues for these articles. The ADP will be from NFBC Cutline leagues over the last couple of weeks of writing the article. Lastly, these will be targets after ADP 200, and I will try and focus on post 300 ADP where it is applicable. Now, let’s check out some late-round infield best-ball targets for the 2021 draft season.
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Carlos Santana, Kansas City Royals
ADP: 245
Santana is coming off a horrible 2020 season which saw him hit .199 with eight home runs. His numbers were down all over the place, but was he that bad? His wRC+ was 96, which is nearly average. His ISO was .150, and his wOBA was .316, which are not great but are not rock bottom. Santana only struck out 16.9% of the time and had a career-best 18.4% walk rate.
Now let’s look at more of the positive. Besides Santana’s increased walk rate, which led to a solid .349 OBP, he had a career-best 18.9% O-swing%, an 81% contact rate, and a 6.8% SwStr%. His statcast numbers were not too bad either, with a maxEV of 111.5 mph, 6.7% barrel rate (similar to ‘17 and ‘18), and a 36.6% hard-hit rate.
Santana had a lousy season; no hiding that, but all is not lost when looking at the numbers. His overall profile resembles his 2017/18 seasons, leading to low 20’s home runs, 85 R/RBI, and an outstanding OBP. The OBP part is what makes him very valuable in best-ball drafts. He is also on a new team with the Royals, where he is likely to hit fourth or fifth in the order. It may be a hot take, but the Royals surrounding hitters maybe even better for Santana this season. 2020 was the floor, a lousy floor for Santana, so buy back in and get the value for the 2021 season.
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
ADP: 308
On the day of writing, Votto was placed on the Reds IL with COVID, so monitor the situations. Assuming it is not a bad case with COVID and returns in a couple of weeks, he should be ready for or shortly after opening day. For now, I am still drafting Votto until I receive more damaging information.
The disrespect for Votto is quite surprising. Votto is coming off a 2020 season where his average dropped to a career-low of .226, but in return, his power returned in a very nice way for fantasy. He hit 11 home runs in 54 games, with a .220 ISO and .347 wOBA. His maxEV was a career-best 113.2 mph and a 9.1% barrel rate (best since 2015). Votto changed his stance and approach at the plate, and it paid off nicely for fantasy owners.
Sure, the average dropped, but remember, we are more focused on OBP, which did not change for Votto. He has always been an OBP machine, and in 2020 he had a 16.6% walk rate which helped Votto and his .354 OBP. Sure he used to be a .400+ OBP machine, but Votto is not walking through the door anytime soon. At post ADP 300, we do not expect that ADP, though. An OBP above .350 is realistic, and 20+ home runs are in play as well. Votto now has my attention in season-long, but he should be a significant focus of the later rounds as a potential steal in best-ball leagues.
Elvis Andrus, Oakland Athletics
ADP: 329
A few months ago, Andrus was not really on the radar unless a drafter was desperate late in drafts how things have changed. When the Rangers traded Andrus to the A’s, he became a viable fantasy target once again, especially in best-ball leagues. 2020 was an injury-riddled season that I plan on forgetting when it comes to Andrus. His last full season was 2019, where we saw Andrus hit 12 home runs, steal 31 bases, and rack up a .313 OBP. He was an even better OBP machine in previous seasons.
With Andrus moving to the A’s, he went from a Texas situation where he may be in a platoon or even a bench bat to start a starting shortstop for the A’s. He will likely hit near the backend of the batting order, which is less than ideal, but everyday at-bats are better than no at-bats, mostly post ADP 300.
It may appear Andrus is losing power in recent years, but that may not be the case. His maxEV has been 109-110.2 mph over the last three seasons, his barrel rate in 2020 of 5.7% was the highest of his career, and in his previous two seasons, he has had his best hard-hit rate at 35% and 37.5%. The power metrics have looked good while is fly-ball rates have been improving, so double-digit power is still possible for Andrus. More importantly, is the fact he is still running. He has 20+ stolen bases in the ten seasons where he has played at least 145 games, which he should do once again in 2021. Take advantage of Andrus and his great draft price to find a great source of late saves and some power upside in your best-ball drafts.
Brendan Rodgers, Colorado Rockies
ADP: 391
The once highly touted Rockies prospect may finally get his chance to play every day for the Rockies. Besides an injury holding him back, the Rockies love to squash the playing time for their prospects. This spring, the Rockies are playing Rodgers nearly every day at 2B, and his main competition in Garrett Hampson has been relegated to mainly outfield duty. Keep an eye on this with Mike Kurland’s daily lineup takeaways.
Rodgers has showcased 15+ home runs upside as well as double-digit steals upside during his time in the minors. That could play very well when calling Coors Field home. Rodgers also brings a strong hit tool to the bigs with an average of .275 or better in nearly every minor league stop as well as a nice OBP of at least .340+ in all but two stops. There is not much to lose and a whole lot to gain by taking chances on Rodgers late in your best-ball drafts.
Josh Rojas, Arizona Diamondbacks
ADP: 420
Rojas has had trouble getting regular playing time with the DBacks, but that may be changing for 2021. With the injury to Kole Calhoun, that opens up some outfield playing time where Rojas has played from time to time for the DBacks, but there’s a new twist. The DBacks have been gaining a lot of interest this spring by using Rojas at leadoff most games and playing him at SHORTSTOP!!!!!
If Rojas can play nearly every day between SS, OF, or another IF position, he becomes quite viable. Throughout the minors, he has shown double-digit steals upside and a solid batting average. More importantly, he had a .338 OBP or better at every minor league spot from High-A onward. Drafting Rojas now is purely speculation on his value, which is tremendous if he gets everyday playing time. The DBacks could play a game with us, but for now, all things are pointing to a lot of playing time, and if that happens, his draft price with climb rapidly. Grab some Rojas while you can as you will be quite pleased with the results.
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