RADIO
Week 5 is over, and the DVR is (mostly) cleared off. It's time to tally up the week 5 betting scores and see what we came away with. We'll get to that. First, we have five college football games before Saturday for a nice little pregame. All of those are FBS vs. FBS schools, so I need to pick those. We can make money before Saturday. It is possible! Let's see what we're dealing with in the Thursday and Friday pregame before another monster Saturday.
CFB Betting Picks 10/7 and 10/8:
(15)Coastal Carolina(-19.5) at Arkansas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
At this point, I'm not even sure it matters if Grayson McCall plays or not. The Red Wolves got spanked by Georgia Southern last week by more points than this. The Chanticleers are better than Georgia State at every position. Give me the Mullets!
Houston(-6.5) at Tulane
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This has the feelings of a trap for Houston, but I tend to think that Tulsa is better than Tulane and the Cougars defense locked them down. I'll take Houston for under a touchdown.
Temple at (5)Cincinnati(-29.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This feels high. I know that Cincinnati can cover this. I don't really think they will. They're going to be more concerned with staying healthy and winning the games in front of them since the tough games are all over. Style points will count, but for the Bearcats, getting everyone back on track after a tough, physical game in South Bend will be more important. Give me Temple.
Charlotte(-3.5) at Florida International
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I have questions about the Charlotte defense, but I promise you, FIU has been even worse on that side of the ball. Chris Reynolds is going to have a big game here. Give me Charlotte.
Stanford at (22)Arizona State(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high. I know that Arizona State beat UCLA by more than this in L.A., but I'm more impressed with Stanford's defense than UCLA's. I'm probably not betting this, but I still feel like this could be a letdown for Arizona State and that Stanford is good enough to hang around. The Cardinal wont win, but I don't feel like they get covered either.
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CFB Betting Picks Week 5 Results:
I promised transparency this year, and you will get it, warts and all. There were a lot of warts last week, and I'm glad I hammered the Texas line at -4.5 on Saturday morning. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Here are the results from week 5. I picked 61 games and all 61 played. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Virginia at Miami(FL)(-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm glad I skipped the over/under and glad I didn't flip when I learned D'Eriq King was sitting. That said, Virginia really had no business winning this game.
Houston at Tulsa(-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There's nothing quite like a road dog winning by 30. Alton McCaskill had a coming out party. Davis Brin threw four interceptions. This was tough for Tulsa fans. Houston finally lived up to some of their potential here.
(5)Iowa(-3.5) at Maryland: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should have raised the number here since I hit the Iowa line hard on Friday afternoon. The Iowa defense was once again the story of this game. Not only did Maryland lose, but they lost star receiver Dontay Demus for at least a few games. That injury didn't look good.
(13)BYU(-8.5) at Utah State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Cougars gave no indication that Jaren Hall would be out, but Tyler Allgeier chewed up the Aggies just fine.
(8)Arkansas at (2)Georgia(-18.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Forget being the best defense of this year. Georgia is one of the best defenses of this millennium. They held Arkansas to 162 yards of total offense! Georgia scored 37 points despite throwing for just 72 yards.
(14)Michigan at Wisconsin(-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Well, if there's one good thing for Wisconsin fans, they now know why the coaching staff didn't bench Graham Mertz. Mertz was solid before leaving with an injury. Chase Wolf provided very little relief as the backup. Would you believe that this was Jim Harbaugh's first win as a dog at Michigan in 12 tries? Things feel different this year in Ann Arbor.
Tennessee at Missouri(-2.5):MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a good old-fashioned beatdown. Tennessee scored 28 first quarter points and never looked back.
Charlotte at Illinois(-10.5):MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I had a feeling I was going to lose by that half. Good thing I bet the under as well to break even.
Pittsburgh(-3.5) at Georgia Tech: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Who needs to run when Kenny Pickett throws for nearly four Benjamins and four touchdowns? Israel Abanikanda may have taken the starting RB job for Pitt here. No one else has stepped up. Who cares if it was garbage time? He at least deserves more looks after his performance here.
Duke at North Carolina(-19.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
So much for hanging around. Duke didn't even score until the third quarter and that was their only one.
Minnesota at Purdue(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Minnesota loses to Bowling Green at home, then beats Purdue in West Lafayette in a deluge. It didn't ground Purdue's passing attack. Aidan O'Connell threw for 371 yards here. This is a game that Purdue had several chances to win, and if you were only looking at stats, you'd swear they won by two touchdowns. It was just one of those games....
Toledo(-26.5) at Massachusetts: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UMass is not going to get covered one of these times. It will likely be when I get brave and raise my bets against them. The Minutemen weren't close here. They didn't score until this game was way out of hand.
Texas(-5.5) at TCU: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This counts as a loss here since I picked it at 5.5. I got all of my bets at 4.5, at least. Still, there is no way it should have been this close. TCU couldn't stop Bijan Robinson and they still had a chance to win this game. They finally showed what can happen when a team pressures Casey Thompson. He still had an overall good game, but they rattled him a bit.
Memphis(-11.5) at Temple: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
UTSA may be good, but this Memphis defense has some serious issues. D'Wan Mathis threw for 322 yards and three touchdowns on them.
Western Michigan(-6.5) at Buffalo: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It took a monster fourth quarter by Skyy Moore to win this for the Broncos (and us).
Louisville at (24)Wake Forest(-6.5):MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was right about it being close and about Wake winning. It was just closer than I expected. Malik Cunningham is capable of carrying this team.
Appalachian State(-9.5) at Georgia State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was close for about a half. Then the rout was on.
USC(-7.5) at Colorado: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I am convinced that Drake London can catch anything in the same zip code as him.
Drake London … ??? pic.twitter.com/qgXZ15w0Lg
— Geoff Schwartz (@geoffschwartz) October 2, 2021
(7)Cincinnati(-1.5) at (9)Notre Dame: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Jack Coan was replaced at the half, but Drew Pyne wasn't any better than Coan. Yeah, he threw a touchdown, but he only completed nine of 22 pass attempts. That's a lot of stalled out drives.
Louisiana-Monroe at (16)Coastal Carolina(-34.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Mullets won by 53 with only using Grayson McCall for one half. They may have scored triple digits if McCall had played the whole game....
Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ben Bryant to Hassan Beydoun has things looking up in Ypsilanti. NIU was just a little too solid for the Eagles.
(12)Mississippi at (1)Alabama(-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Alabama pitched a shutout in the first half. You knew they weren't going to let this go down like it did last year in Oxford.
(3)Oregon(-7.5) at Stanford: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was a great performance by Stanford, and they did it without star receiver Brycen Tremaine for the entire second half. I don't fully agree with the holding call on Oregon that extended the game and allowed Stanford to tie, but this was still a win that Stanford earned. This was a tough and gritty performance on both sides of the ball.
(4)Oklahoma(-11.5) at Kansas State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Oklahoma once again blew a sizeable lead late and the opposing team had the ball with a chance to win or tie late in the fourth. The offense looked much better in this game. Another gutty performance by Skylar Thompson almost made it three in a row against the Sooners, but the defense stood up late in the fourth when it really counted.
(11)Ohio State(-14.5) at Rutgers: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ohio State ripped the new-look Rutgers defense a new one, putting up 45 points in the first half. Better luck next year!
Troy at South Carolina(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The South Carolina offense is a perpetual adventure, but at least the defense seems to have things figured out.
Florida International at Florida Atlantic(-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
FAU put up 704 yards of total offense. N'Kosi Perry only had three incompletions. This was domination across the board for the Owls.
Syracuse at Florida State(-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Seminoles got their first win. I still got the loss. Some may say it was destiny....
Texas Tech at West Virginia(-7.5):MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Texas Tech was up 17-0 at the half. This was a strong performance by the Texas Tech defense. They're not just offense anymore.
Central Florida(-16.5) at Navy: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
My gut said it was too high, but I didn't listen. Under no circumstances did I think Navy would win outright. The UCF offense is a shell of itself with Dillon Gabriel out.
Tulane(-3.5) at East Carolina: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was another dominant performance by ECU in Greenville. I need to quit giving teams so much credit for hanging around with Oklahoma this year. It's not as impressive as it originally seemed.
Central Michigan at Miami(OH)(EVEN): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a nice performance by Daniel Richardson, but the Redhawks were able to limit Lew Nichols. That was enough to keep the Chippewas from running out the clock.
Ohio(-9.5) at Akron: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Going against Akron and UMass has been easy money so far.
Bowling Green at Kent State(-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Kent had all they wanted in this one, but the defense tightened in the fourth quarter to come out with a win. Matt McDonald has looked good back under center for the last six quarters or so.
Nevada at Boise State(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I am a little surprised considering how bad Nevada looked in week 3, but Boise's inability to run the ball is the elephant in the middle of the Smurf Turf right now. They can't ignore it forever.
South Florida at SMU(-21.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Mustangs wont be confused with the Pony Express anytime soon, but this is a fun team to watch again. There is a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball for SMU.
Arkansas State at Georgia Southern(-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I thought I knew what to expect from GSU. I did expect a win, but 59 points? That was quite a performance for Logan Wright. He only needed ten carries to rack up 208 rushing yards.
Army(-9.5) at Ball State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Drew Plitt had a huge first quarter and the Cardinals defense held tough. Army scored just two points in the second half!
Washington State at California(-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have had more confidence in this. Cal's offense is a mess, despite what Chase Garbers did to Washington.
(10)Florida(-7.5) at Kentucky: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Good things happen when Kentucky takes care of the ball. You can't say the Wildcats defense didn't earn this. That was a hell of a goal-line stand over the last three minutes of the game.
Louisiana Tech at (23)North Carolina State(-18.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a strong performance by the Bulldogs on both sides of the ball. Ricky Person and Zonovan Knight finally broke down the Bulldogs defense late, but it took them a while.
UNLV at UTSA(-21.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The UNLV defense has looked surprisingly good of late. The offense is still a disaster, but one thing at a time, I guess.
Southern Mississippi at Rice(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Wow, this was an ugly game. Southern Miss dominated in total yards and still lost. That takes.....uh.....talent....
Air Force(-11.5) at New Mexico: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should have had more faith in Air Force. They were up 24-0 at halftime and let off a little in the second half.
Mississippi State at (15)Texas A&M(-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Will Rogers might throw 700 passes by season's end. No, I'm not kidding. He threw another 59 here in an unlikely win.
(21)Baylor at (19)Oklahoma State(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The Cowboys are looking the part with Jaylen Warren and a big play receiver in Tay Martin. The defense looked very good for much of this game. The concern for the Pokes has to be the questionable decision making of Spencer Sanders at times. He has a year and a half of starting experience. He shouldn't be doing that, at least not as much.
Marshall(-10.5) at Middle Tennessee State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm kicking myself for not taking MTSU. They are a different team with Chase Cunningham as the quarterback.
Liberty at UAB(-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It was knotted at 3 at the half. Then the Liberty offense took off in the second half. Malik Willis kept making big plays and the Blazers had no chance to stop him.
Kansas at Iowa State(-34.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It's really hard to find any silver lining in this for Kansas. That's how much of a beating it was.
Indiana at (4)Penn State(-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I give up on Indiana. They aren't even close to last year's team and Stevie Scott isn't walking back in that door.
Western Kentucky at (17)Michigan State(-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I consider it something of a win for the Hilltoppers that they scored 31 points on this defense. Never mind what their own defense gave up. Bailey Zappe threw for 488 yards on this defense. That's a very impressive performance!
Boston College at (25)Clemson(-15.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Clemson's defense is so good that Boston College only lost by six points, but it ever really felt like they were truly in that game. That's what an elite defense can do.
Connecticut at Vanderbilt(-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If Tyler Phommanchanh doesn't go down early in the second drive of the game for the Huskies, I'm certain they would have won this game outright. Can Vanderbilt just play Kansas already? I'm enough of a junkie to watch that game.....
Northwestern at Nebraska(-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Anyone who has watched a down of Northwestern football this season shouldn't be surprised by this result. I thought watching the Fordham game that Jaquez Yant was the best running back on the Nebraska roster. It feels like the coaching staff is finally starting to figure that out as well.
Louisiana(-12.5) at South Alabama: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Jalen Tolbert is good enough to be a NFL receiver. Don't let the fact that he plays for South Alabama fool you.
(22)Auburn at LSU(-2.5):MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Yes, I'm still mad that LSU blew this. That was a bad fourth quarter for the LSU defense.
Old Dominion at UTEP(-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UTEP is 4-1 for the first time since 2010 when Trevor Vittatoe was running the team. The Miners have come a long way, but I have a hard time seeing two more wins in their remaining schedule to vault them into consideration for a bowl game. That may have to wait.
Washington at Oregon State(-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a tough game, but we shouldn't expect anything less. I do like watching Oregon State, and in particular, B.J. Baylor. He's a tough runner.
Arizona State at (20)UCLA(-3.5):MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
We finally saw a pretty efficient game from Jayden Daniels, and the Arizona State backfield is loaded with talent. This was a great performance and it still may not be their ceiling. However, they do need to show some consistency if they want to win the Pac 12.
New Mexico State at San Jose State(-27.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Okay....so I did watch the Vandy-UConn game. I couldn't resist. And as bad as I thought that would be, this game was ten times worse. That SJSU defense, which was a strength last year, is a problem this year.
(18)Fresno State(-10.5) at Hawaii: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Fresno was in control and dominating this game until the Fresno defense let it al go in the fourth quarter. Calvin Turner strikes again!
College Football Betting Season Results:
My four-point picks were a disaster, but I think I gained enough elsewhere to mitigate the damage. I did finish 29-32 on the week to put me at 127-139 on the season. It's not a horrible mark, but it's definitely a disappointment after three or so weeks like this. Conference play didn't help as much as I had hoped.
Now it's time to tally up the points. The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 2-6 (20-25) = -5
2. 15-15 (53-55) = -4
3. 9-4 (41-29) = 36
4. 0-5 (7-21) = -56
5. 3-2 (6-9) = -15
Despite the four pointers, I only lost four points on the week thanks to another strong performance in the 3's and hitting one more five than I missed. I have lost 44 points on the season though and I'm now 16 points in the red over 4+ seasons. This is a smaller week, but there are some huge games. Come back tomorrow for the spread picks for this weekend! We've got another big weekend with 51 games. 46 of those are on Saturday and they are all FBS vs. FBS games.
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