RADIO
This week is a little smaller than last week. Of course, coming off of a week with 61 games, this will seem a little small. There are still 51 games this weekend and 46 take place on Saturday. There's money to be made. Let's go get it!
Since this piece is new here at RotoBaller, I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year.
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I had a better week last week, but it still wasn't up to par. I need to fix that. We went 2-0 to start the week on Thursday, so let's build on that momentum!
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(6)Oklahoma(-3.5) vs. (21)Texas at Dallas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
TCU gave Oklahoma a road map for how to fluster Casey Thompson. All they have to do is execute. If they can do that and do as well stopping the run as they have for most of the season, they can win this game. Kennedy Brooks needs to run off with the job. He ran for 105 on Texas on just ten carries in 2019. We will need another performance like that from him to win this game. The run is still the place to go after Texas. I like our chances here. BOOMER!
Maryland at (7)Ohio State(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This feels low. Maryland got torn apart by Iowa on both sides of the ball. Are we really supposed to believe that Iowa is that much better than Ohio State? I don't say this often, but wow, Vegas looks off. I see Ohio State by double this.
(11)Michigan State(-5.5) at Rutgers
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Wow, this is low. Michigan State is a lot better on both sides of the ball. Kenneth Walker III is in for a big day here. Give me Sparty by a lot!
(13)Arkansas at (17)Mississippi(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Really? We're just going to give up on Arkansas now since they got ravaged by Georgia? The Bulldogs have only allowed 23 points all season. Georgia exposed the Piggies, but I don't feel like the Ole Miss defense is strong enough to do the same. This is still a good Arkansas defense. I still like Arkansas straight up.
Vanderbilt at (20)Florida(-38.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Good grief! Can we contract Vanderbilt already? No? I'll take the Gators, but there is no way I would put money on this.
South Carolina at Tennessee(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm curious to see how Tennessee looks against a good defense. Hendon Hooker looks like a nice fit for this offense that is finally starting to hit its stride. I do believe in the South Carolina defense, but not the offense. Not even a little bit. Give me the Vols.
West Virginia at Baylor(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Losing to Texas Tech at home is a tough one to swallow for Mountaineers fans that thought they were turning the corner. This is going to be a battle in Waco. I'll give the Bears enough of an edge because of the fans to cover this. Gerry Bohannon had a nice game even in a loss in Stillwater. Nice enough that I see Baylor winning by a touchdown.
Northern Illinois at Toledo(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
All this for beating UMass? Okay then. I feel like this is too high. NIU has a solid defense. I don't think they win outright, but this stays within single digits. I'll take the Huskies.
Akron at Bowling Green(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is up a full touchdown already and it's still too low. Give me the Falcons for anything under 20!
Georgia Tech(-3.5) at Duke
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is our schizophrenic line of the week. It's anywhere from 2.5 to 5 right now depending on where you look. I've seen enough from Georgia Tech to know that betting actual money on them is a fool's errand. Give me Duke outright at home.
Old Dominion at Marshall(-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, that's a lot of points. Marshall isn't really built to cover a line like this, but they are certainly capable if the Monarchs can't even score. Give me Marshall.
Virginia at Louisville(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I was actually expecting the Hoos to be favored, but I understand why they're not. Run defense has been a problem and Malik Cunningham is one of the most lethal dual threats in the college game today. Brennan Armstrong is going to do quite well for himself against Louisville as well, but I don't see Virginia winning this. Give me Louisville.
(2)Georgia(-15.5) at (18)Auburn
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This Georgia defense has been one of the most dominant forces in college football this year. Auburn, in particular Bo Nix, show a lot in that win at LSU last week. Let's hope Georgia doesn't take all of that away from them here. I like the under at 47 more than the spread, but we do spreads here. Give me Georgia.
Boise State at (10)BYU(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This feels low since Boise can't run the ball. Give me BYU by double digits!
(19)Wake Forest(-6.5) at Syracuse
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line was nearly double this when it opened. I like it a lot better here. Garrett Schrader makes Syracuse a much better offensive team which will keep the defense more fresh. However, I don't see two guys on this team that can cover Jaquarii Roberson and A.T. Perry for the entire game. Give me Wake.
(24)SMU(-13.5) at Navy
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Much as I expected, the Middies are getting no love for beating UCF without Dillon Gabriel. Who can blame them? The Middies lost their first two games by a combined 62 points. However, they hung with a solid Houston team that reminds me a lot of this SMU squad. I don't think Navy wins, but I do think they can keep this around ten points. Give me Navy.
Florida Atlantic at UAB(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The bottom fell out of this line and I see why. Miami transfer N'Kosi Perry has been much better over the last couple of games for the Owls. I like the Blazers, but they looked absolutely lost on offense last week. I'll take the Owls outright here.
Middle Tennessee State at Liberty(-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high. I didn't give MTSU enough credit last week. I'll give it to them here. They wont win, but this is too many points.
Florida State at North Carolina(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It looks like the FSU win streak ends at 1. I don't like the half, but I really don't feel like Florida State can hang around if Sam Howell and Ty Chandler play like they are capable of. Give me the Tarheels.
Wisconsin(-10.5) at Illinois
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Too many. This Wisconsin offense has proven time and time again that moving the ball, even against average defenses, is an adventure that you could make a weekly television series out of. In a sense, that's what Badgers games are. Let's see what new and creative ways they can find to make their offense look far less effective than it actually is. I believe in the Illinois defense. I don't think they win outright, but they keep this in single digits at home.
Connecticut(-3.5) at Massachusetts
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
UConn's offense was worse without Tyler Phommachanh, and judging by the injury last week, they should be without him for the forseeable future. However, they still almost beat Vanderbilt in Nashville. A team that, despite their worst efforts, is still a ton better than UMass. I still like UConn by around two touchdowns. This is way too low!
Miami(OH) at Eastern Michigan(EVEN)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Hassan Beydoun. Remember the name as he goes for around 200 receiving yards against the Redhawks on the gun-metal gray field. Give me EMU.
Ball State at Western Michigan(-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This feels kind of high, especially considering Ball State just beat Army by double digits. I don't think the Cardinals win this, but they'll hang around.
Central Michigan(-5.5) at Ohio
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The fun of playing Akron is over. Back to reality for the Bobcats. Give me CMU.
San Jose State at Colorado State(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Really? SJSU almost lost outright to a far below average New Mexico State team. This gets ugly. Give me the Rams by somewhere around 10x this line.
(4)Penn State at (3)Iowa(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I really like the under at 41 and Iowa at home. The under more than the spread if you're only betting one part of this.
North Texas at Missouri(-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Missouri needs this after what Tennessee did to them. Expect a big game out of Tyler Badie and for the Missouri defense to look deceptively effective. I'll take Missouri.
Oregon State(-3.5) at Washington State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The more I look at this the less convinced I am that Oregon State wins this. I know they're the better team and B.J. Baylor is a really good back. I just get the feeling that Jayden de Laura is going to have a huge game sometime soon. This could be it. I'm taking Oregon State, but lowering the bet just in case.
East Carolina at Central Florida(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is high for a team without Dillon Gabriel. I think ECU can take this outright, even in the bounce house. Holton Ahlers is Dillon Gabriel lite. He'll show it here. Give me ECU.
UTEP(-2.5) at Southern Mississippi
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
UTEP won as the favorite last week, but it could be a lot to ask for them to do it on the road. UTEP has looked a lot better than Southern Miss so far, but this one worries me. Give me the Miners, but I wouldn't bet this.
UTSA at Western Kentucky(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is going to be a fun one! They may not be big name schools, but there is going to be some NFL talent on this field. Bailey Zappe is flying up draft charts. Sincere McCormick is a tough runner. Zakhari Franklin is big with soft hands. I don't even want to bet this. I just want to sit back and enjoy! I'm a big UTSA fan, but I have to go with Western Kentucky at home.
TCU(-1.5) at Texas Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Texas thumped Tech but not TCU. The only thing TCU has going for them is a two-point win against a below average Cal team. I'll take Tech at home.
Buffalo at Kent State(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is slowly creeping upward, but I don't know why. Kent got their doors blown off by A&M, Maryland, and Iowa and only beat Bowling Green by a touchdown. Buffalo stayed within three points of Coastal Carolina. I'll take the Bulls.
Georgia Southern at Troy(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Really? Troy lost outright to a Monroe team that is at least as bad as the Arkansas State team that the Eagles beat by 26 last week. GSU straight up!
South Alabama(-3.5) at Texas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I have no faith in a team that lost to Incarnate Word, not even at home where they are usually a pretty good team. Give me the Jaguars.
Wyoming at Air Force(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Wyoming defense is pretty good, but pretty good wont stop Haaziq Daniels. Give me Air Force.
(9)Michigan(-2.5) at Nebraska
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Both teams have good, if not really good, defenses. What oddmakers aren't considering is that Cade McNamara just doesn't make mistakes. Adrian Martinez does. This feels low. Give me Michigan.
(14)Notre Dame(-1.5) at Virginia Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line tells you all you need to know. The Hokies are even favored in some places now. Weird things happen in Blacksburg at night. Notre Dame has a quarterback controversy and neither one wants the job. They really wont want it against this defense. I usually don't flock when the public does, but I don't see the Irish winning this game either. Give me the Hokies.
LSU at Kentucky(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Lexington is seeing some good ones this year! I'm a little worried about Florida hangover, but this Kentucky defense is impressive. If the Wildcats take care of the ball again, they shouldn't have much trouble covering this. That's still an if though. I'm lowering the bet.
(1)Alabama(-17.5) at Texas A&M
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The most exciting thing about this game is that Gary Danielson has to stay up long past his bedtime and you might get to hear him snore on the air. ROLL TIDE!
Georgia State(-15.5) at Louisiana-Monroe
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Wow, that's a lot of points. Give me Georgia State, I guess. There's no way I would touch this one.
Utah at USC(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
USC is the better team, but that doesn't mean much of late. I'll take the Trojans, but I don't really have any confidence left in them.
New Mexico at (25)San Diego State(-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Okay, Aztecs. Since you are new to this ranking thing, I'll let you know how it works. This is a game where you get style points. No one is impressed with you playing New Mexico. You have to make them impressed with a blowout win, capisce? I hope they understand because I'm taking the Aztecs!
Memphis at Tulsa(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I figured Memphis losing to Temple would affect this line. I know Tulsa is capable of winning this, but I'm not gung-ho about them after what Houston did to Tulsa last week. Give me Memphis. They can throw well enough to win this outright.
UCLA(-16.5) at Arizona
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Wildcats have looked a little better. I'll say that maybe, just maybe they can hang around at home. I'm not getting anywhere near this game with a betting slip though.
New Mexico State at Nevada(-30.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Is Colin Kaepernick back at Nevada? No? This is too many. Give me the Aggies.
I went with 11 one-point bets, which is a season high. You can blame that on a lot of big spreads and average teams trying to cover them. I also have a season-high 15 three-point bets. I'm scared of fours since I only have three. 18 two-point bets is a weekly high, but percentage wise is one of my lowest twos of the year. I wound up with four five-point bets to try and win some points back this week. Let's get it!
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