RADIO
Week 4 is over, and the DVR is (mostly) cleared off. It's time to tally up the week 4 betting scores and see what we came away with. We'll get to that. First, we have four college football games before Saturday for a nice little pregame. All of those are FBS vs. FBS schools, so I need to pick those. We can make money before Saturday. It is possible! Let's see what we're dealing with in the Thursday and Friday pregame before another monster Saturday.
CFB Betting Picks 9/30 and 10/1:
Virginia at Miami(FL)(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is slowly creeping upward, and I get it. Virginia drops 20-point losses like Drake name drops NBA players. I'm far more comfortable betting the over at 62.5 considering the issues for both defenses, but that's not what I'm here for. I'm here to lose money on Virginia. Give me the Hoos, dammit!
Houston at Tulsa(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
You can't get anything past Vegas, can you? Houston is easily the bigger name, but the spread is widening for Tulsa. I guess a lot of people watched the Ohio State game. I do like Tulsa considering Houston's issues all over the field, but I'm not all that gung-ho about it. Houston has the talent to win this outright. That has me lowering the bet.
(5)Iowa(-3.5) at Maryland
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is the first time Iowa has left the state for a game in nearly 10 months. However, if you're the number 5 team, it shouldn't matter. Maryland is the kind of team that can be a problem for Iowa. Apparently Vegas feels the same because this spread is pretty low and you can get it at -3 almost across the board without a teaser. Iowa's offense doesn't impress me in the slightest, but that defense does. Maryland's is an adventure. I'll take Iowa for a touchdown, even in Terpland.
(13)BYU(-8.5) at Utah State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low, especially with a well-rested (and allegedly healthy) Jaren Hall. The Aggies looked bad, especially in the red zone, against Boise last week. Were they looking ahead? Maybe, but the two-quarterback system is undermining just how good those receivers can be. Give me BYU.
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CFB Betting Picks Week 3 Results:
I promised transparency this year, and you will get it, warts and all. There were a lot of warts last week, and Missouri almost busted me this week. Almost. Thank you NC State and UTSA for bailing me out! I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Here are the results from week 4. I picked 58 games and all 58 played. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Marshall at Appalachian State(-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Marshall managed to hang around despite Appalachian State neutralizing Corey Gammage. This was partially a sloppy game by App State, but I think we saw a ceiling game from Marshall here. Not saying that more of those aren't possible, but the Herd haven't come near a performance like this since 2019. App State taking a dive instead of scoring and giving Marshall the ball back was the right play, but it cost me the bet. I have to applaud and be upset at the same time. It's a strange feeling....
Middle Tennessee State at Charlotte(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a fun game, particularly the performance by Chase Cunningham in his first career start. If you like offense, this was for you. Both offenses looked good in this one. What wasn't fun is losing the bet.
Wake Forest at Virginia(-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was the best performance I've seen from the Wake defense in a while. Brennan Armstrong was running for his life for much of the game. Armstrong had another huge game. Virginia loses by 20. Like clockwork. I missed the over too, so that didn't help. There's a reason I usually avoid over/under bets.
Liberty(-6.5) at Syracuse: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
At least I didn't have to wait until around 3pm Saturday to get my first win of the week. The Carrier Dome crowd and Sean Tucker won this for the Orange.
UNLV at (22)Fresno State(-30.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew better. Fresno had a major letdown and nearly lost. The silver lining for UNLV is that the QB carousel may finally be done for a while. Cameron Friel played well even if he didn't throw a touchdown. This job is probably still Doug Brumfield's when he is healthy enough to take it again though.
(2)Georgia(-35.5) at Vanderbilt: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Nope, no boredom here. I think Georgia just scored another touchdown. They scored eight in the game. To put that in perspective, Vanderbilt only had four first downs for the entire game!
(12)Notre Dame vs. (18)Wisconsin(-6.5) at Chicago: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Chicago is an Irish town. This game was a slugfest like I expected until the Irish defense outscored both offenses in the fourth quarter alone! Two interceptions were returned for touchdowns by the Notre Dame defense and the special teams added a return touchdown in the fourth quarter. Imagine being Paul Chryst and picking Graham Mertz over Jack Coan......twice. This was vindication for Coan and the Irish. The Wisconsin defense did a good job on Coan, but he didn't make crippling mistakes like Mertz did.
LSU(-2.5) at Mississippi State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It was another nice game for Will Rogers, in another losing effort. You can see the Mike Leach imprint on this team starting to show. Meanwhile, the LSU defense is much improved over last year and the offense isn't making huge mistakes. They just don't have the playmakers that the 2019 version did.
Missouri(-1.5) at Boston College: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Way to go, Missouri. Nice loss for the SEC against a backup quarterback that really hasn't played well at any juncture of his career. This game really shouldn't have gone to overtime. Boston College outplayed the Tigers for the middle 40 minutes of the game. It took a great 56-yard field goal by Missouri to even get it to overtime.
Florida International at Central Michigan(-11.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Yuck again. Ugly game. Maryland transfer Max Bortenschlager did everything he could to win this game for FIU.
Bowling Green at Minnesota(-31.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It was another workmanlike effort for Trey Potts, but he couldn't find the end zone. I never expected an outright loss from Minnesota. The Gophers lost to a non-power five opponent for the first time in a decade (North Dakota State in 2011) and a non-conference opponent for the first time in six years (TCU in 2015). At least those were good teams. I thought Bowling Green's only win of the season was going to be against Akron. The MAC has now collected at least one Big Ten(14) win in every year since 2006 (2020's abbreviated schedule doesn't discontinue that streak). I thought Buffalo was far more likely to be Nebraska than this one. The streak is intact!
Ohio at Northwestern(-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
If I would have known that Northwestern was going to get smart and finally turn the quarterback job over to Washington State and South Carolina transfer Ryan Hilinski, I would have bet the Wildcats too. Hilinski didn't pile up the stats, but he didn't make mistakes and the offense just ran much more smoothly.
SMU at TCU(-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Skillet stays on the Dallas side for the second straight contest thanks to Tanner Mordecai and the high-powered offense. Danny Gray had 130 receiving yards on just four receptions!
Texas Tech at Texas(-8.5):HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
So....uh....what would have happened if Steve Sarkisian had started the season with Casey Thompson as the quarterback instead of Hudson Card? This offense looks elite under Thompson. They may not have beaten Arkansas, but they certainly wouldn't have been embarrassed either.
Miami(OH) at Army(-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Army quarterback Christian Anderson finished with 236 rushing yards on just 15 carries. That was good enough for the best rushing total in FBS this week. Northwestern's Evan Hull was the only other guy to break 200.
Boise State(-9.5) at Utah State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This wasn't as dominating as the score suggests. Utah State moved the ball quite well between the 20's, but couldn't convert anywhere else on the field.
Massachusetts at (17)Coastal Carolina(-36.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Wow, what a beating. Honestly, CCU needed this confidence builder though. The Fun Belt is going to be kind of tough this year.
San Jose State at Western Michigan(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
More drops and more ineffectiveness. The Spartans used three different quarterbacks and the Broncos dominated them all.
Toledo(-4.5) at Ball State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Toledo walks into Muncie and shuts down Ball State after being thumped by Colorado State. The real question now is: just how good is South Dakota State? They might be the best team in the Great Plains north of Oklahoma.....
Texas State at Eastern Michigan(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm more than a little disappointed that I didn't have more faith in the Eagles.
Washington State at Utah(-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
So....no quarterback controversy at Utah. Charlie Brewer made it easy on the team and just left. However, the Cougars had to start Jarrett Guarantano and didn't get blown out. Hooray, progress!
Colorado State at (5)Iowa(-23.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a solid performance by the Rams. I'm having a rough time with the Nebraska and Iowa teams so far this year.
(7)Texas A&M(-4.5) vs. (16)Arkansas at Jerry World: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I hammered this on Saturday morning and didn't come back here to raise the bet. That's on me. The Aggies are lucky KJ Jefferson got hurt because they may have gotten blown off the field. They couldn't even slow him down!
(9)Clemson(-10.5) at North Carolina State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I ended up feeling better than the original wager about this one before kickoff too. This was a nice performance by the North Carolina State defense. I do think that Clemson losing half their linebackers made the difference for NC State. They wouldn't have won outright otherwise.
(14)Iowa State(-7.5) at Baylor: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Where is the Iowa State defense? Props to the wackos in Waco that chanted "OVER-RATED" for the better part of three hours straight. You know that had to get inside the head of Brock Purdy at the very least. The fans that the mics were picking up on the sidelines in this one were almost as entertaining as the game itself.
Rutgers at(19)Michigan(-20.5):MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Rutgers defense put on another good show, shutting out Michigan in the second half. The inability of Cade McNamara to win a game with his arm is going to be the undoing of Michigan this year. However, Michigan hasn't even trailed at any point this season. They don't have a turnover either. That's huge for a ball-control offense.
UTSA at Memphis(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Are we having fun yet? The Roadrunners sure are! So are my bets on these guys. UTSA is a lot of what's right with college football. I love watching this team.
Louisville(-1.5) at Florida State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Why in the world did Florida State not run Jashaun Corbin more? He's the best player on that offense right now and it really isn't close. Corbin averaged 14 yards per carry in his 11 carries! You have to hand it to the Florida State defense. They held the Cardinals scoreless in the second half to make this respectable.
Illinois at Purdue(-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a tough one to watch, especially considering I watched it right after the Missouri-Boston College game. The Illinois defense continues to do a very nice job. Will the offense ever catch up?
Kent State at Maryland(-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'll admit that the Illinois game last Friday really made me nervous.
Wyoming(-30.5) at Connecticut: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The UConn defense holds up quite well when the offense can move the ball a little bit. They held Xazavian Valladay to 101 rushing yards and came really close to pulling the upset. Tyler Phommachanh is still inefficient with some of his passes, but he doesn't make mistakes and the offense has responded to him. UConn is no longer cover bait.
Georgia State at (23)Auburn(-27.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I knew better. Auburn was down 12 at halftime and needed the defense to pitch a shutout in the second half to win this. They also needed the officials to gift them a reception to keep the game-winning drive alive. That sure as hell didn't look like a catch. Auburn should have lost outright.
Kansas at Duke(-15.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This had about as many points as a basketball game.....
Arkansas State at Tulsa(-14.5):MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was an overcorrection. I should listen to myself more often....
(24)UCLA(-4.5) at Stanford: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a spirited performance by Stanford, but the talent gap is pretty large right now. Zach Charbonnet was the missing link for UCLA. Tanner McKee might be for Stanford. Can he play defense too?
Buffalo(-13.5) at Old Dominion: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Ugh.....screw you (again) Buffalo! How in the hell do you blow a 35-7 lead and luck out to get the win because the Monarchs missed the extra point? I'd rather they just lost outright. They certainly deserved it with that poor defensive showing in the second half.
Louisiana(-13.5) at Georgia Southern: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Levi Lewis is good. The Louisiana run defense? Not so much....
Tennessee at (11)Florida(-18.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Gators made me sweat this a little. This was the kind of performance that Florida fans were waiting on from Emory Jones. He had the best passing game (looks-wise....not just by the numbers) of his career and his running game is still elite. The Florida coaching staff kept saying a game like this was coming. Sometimes you just have to trust that the coaches know what they are talking about.
Nebraska at (20)Michigan State(-4.5):MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was total domination for the Nebraska defense. Michigan State's offense had five total yards in the second half. FIVE! That kind of domination didn't carry over into overtime and a typical and predictable Adrian Martinez turnover cost Nebraska the game. Michigan State making the right decision and sitting on the ball cost me the bet. That was twice this week that the correct play happened, but cost me the bet.
(25)Kansas State at Oklahoma State(-5.5):HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
No, I don't think Kansas State was looking ahead. This offense truly is a mess without Skylar Thompson. As for Oklahoma State, you guys are the boneheads that didn't run Jaylen Warren to begin the season. I told you to, but did you listen? Better late than never, I guess. At least it didn't cost them a game. The Big 12(10) looks wide open right now.
Kentucky(-4.5) at South Carolina: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
South Carolina had a lot of chances to steal this one. Ball security continues to be a major issue for the Kentucky offense. And no, it's not Nebraska transfer Wan'Dale Robinson either. Those issues are limiting the Kentucky offense and will lose them a few games if they can't correct it.
North Texas at Louisiana Tech(-11.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Yep...the assholes lure me in......then they blow a 24-7 lead. I'm done with you, vile Bulldogs!
Navy at Houston(-18.5):MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Navy didn't even play that great of a game and they still almost won. For those of you that don't want to stay up late to watch Arizona State, watch Houston. They are less talented than the Sun Devils, but just as sloppy.
Southern Mississippi at (1)Alabama(-45.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
There's a reason I don't bet these. The game was over by the end of the first quarter and Southern Miss couldn't steal enough garbage touchdowns.
West Virginia at (4)Oklahoma(-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm going to be disappointed when Oklahoma does finally lose, but these last couple of weeks are helping me prepare for it. The defense is better than it has been in a decade, but the offense didn't work any kinks out and we have kryptonite in Manhattan this week. Oh, and you fans that were there? Be better! We don't know a lot about Caleb Williams, but Spencer Rattler has done a lot for the program in his year and a a half there. Show some respect. I'm upset about some of the mistakes he makes too, but he's only 20 years old. He's not going to be perfect.
Akron at (10)Ohio State(-48.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Kyle McCord became the first true freshman to ever throw for 300 yards for the Buckeyes. What can Akron do for you?
(21)North Carolina(-12.5) at Georgia Tech: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Jeff Sims is fun, the Georgia Tech defense is very good, and Sam Howell is one of the most overrated quarterbacks of the 21st century. Okay, maybe that's a bit of an overstatement. Trace McSorley and Christian Hackenberg were more unjustly hyped. They never went down to Atlanta and got smoked by the Wreck though.
Florida Atlantic at Air Force(-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Sometimes I amaze myself at just which teams I'm willing to bet on. This should have been easy money, but I chickened out. FAU quarterback and Miami transfer N'Kosi Perry completed just 11 of his 33 pass attempts. Ouch! It wasn't all his fault, but we continue to see why he lost his job in South Beach and likely would have even if D'Eriq King hadn't shown up.
UAB at Tulane(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This isn't a knock on Tulane. UAB is a very good team. Michael Pratt is one of the more underappreciated quarterbacks in college right now. The Tulane defense had just enough lapses to lose this one.
Indiana(-9.5) at Western Kentucky: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I see you, Bailey Zappe. I saw you the last couple of years at Houston Baptist too. He's the perfect fit for this offense. It was all Indiana could do to pull this one out. What a fun game this was! In one of the more bizarre stat lines of the year, Michael Penix threw for 373 yards in the air, but didn't record a passing touchdown.
Troy(-23.5) at Louisiana-Monroe: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It was a nice game for Taylor Powell, but he doesn't play defense. Rhett Rodriguez is giving Monroe fans something to cheer about. That's good. They have a fun environment there in Monroe.
Hawaii(-17.5) at New Mexico State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Hawaii defense should be a little embarrassed about giving up 21 points to the Aggies, but that's another story. Calvin Turner is the story here. He channeled his inner Barry Sanders on this one.
UNREAAAL!!
Calvin Turner Jr. rushes for a 14-yd touchdown, @HawaiiFootball leads New Mexico State 31-13.
?: @FloFootball#AtThePeak | #MWFB | #WinEveryDay pic.twitter.com/H5pwb6wMVc
— Mountain West (@MountainWest) September 26, 2021
New Mexico(-1.5) at UTEP: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm not going to pretend to be some genius, but Gavin Hardison and Jacob Cowing are good enough to win games in the Mountain West. UTEP is one of those teams that the bettors rarely respect.
California at Washington(-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It just isn't a betting week if I don't lose at least one bet by the half point. Washington's defense made Chase Garbers look like Aaron Rodgers in this one.....
South Florida at (15)BYU(-23.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Even if I would have known that Jaren Hall wasn't going to play, I still would have let this ride. The BYU defense should have been good enough, but South Florida's running backs gave them hell in the second half.
Arizona at (3)Oregon(-28.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a very nice performance by the Arizona defense. This game was a lot closer than the score indicated. The Ducks were fighting for the game up until the last five minutes. When the dust settled though, it was another loss for Arizona. All 129 FBS teams (yes, even Akron) have won a game since the last time Arizona did on October 5 of 2019. Better luck next week!
Oregon State at USC(-11.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Kedon Slovis and Drake London had huge games, but the USC defense didn't hold up their end of the bargain. At all. I don't think the Trojans will fire an interim coach, but the Trojans defense is going to make life hard on Donte Williams and whatever job he tries to get next. The Beavers won at the Coliseum for the first time in 61 years. Let that sink in....
Colorado at Arizona State(-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It was a workmanlike effort for the Sun Devils. The biggest takeaway here has to be Arizona State taking care of the ball and just how bad Brendon Lewis looks for Colorado. He's clearly overmatched, but the Ralphies must not have anyone else.
College Football Betting Season Results:
I think I had another subpar week, but it wasn't as bad as last week, at least not without the point system. I went 1-5 in my top six bets, so I'm sure I lost points. Overall, I went 27-31 to drop me to 98-107 on the season. That's not an insurmountable deficit, but it certainly is disappointing as most of the non-conference games have been played.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 5-7 (18-19) = -1
2. 10-11 (38-40) = -4
3. 11-8 (32-25) = 21
4. 1-3 (7-16) = -36
5. 0-2 (3-7) = -20
The high pick disasters continue to be an issue. I expect to lose points on the lower bets. The threes are about where I want to be. However, the rough top bets lost me another 13 points this week and have lost me 41 points this season. I'm now 13 points in the red over 4+ seasons, but we have the biggest week of the season coming up. With no FBS vs. FCS games and conference games beginning in earnest, we have some nice games to bet on. Come back tomorrow for the spread picks for this weekend! We've got another big weekend with 61 games. 57 of those are on Friday and they are all FBS vs. FBS games.
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