RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! Patrick Reed tuned out his critics at the WGC Mexico, coming from behind to capture his eighth career PGA Tour title. Reed was one of just three players this week to fire all four rounds in the 60s (Rory McIlroy and Tyrrell Hatton were the other two), and his massive total of 11.824 strokes gained putting helped him to overcome a shaky performance off the tee.
It seems as if most of the popular GPP selections fell flat in Mexico, as only Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm finished the week inside the top-10 from the 10 highest owned golfers on the board. Reed's 12.67% usage rate placed him 20th for the event and helped to provide gamers with an opportunity for a big score.
As far as this article is concerned, we positively highlighted Patrick Reed, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas and Paul Casey but did whiff on our recommendation to fade Tyrrell Hatton. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. If you have any questions before the tournament starts on Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @Teeoffsports. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
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Honda Classic - PGA DFS Overview
PGA National
7,140 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bermuda
The extent of how difficult PGA National will play is going to come down to the wind this weekend. In ideal conditions, it still rates out as one of the most challenging tests on tour, finishing as one of the 10 most demanding tracks in 10 of the past 13 seasons, but extreme weather conditions could turn this into an absolute nightmare for the players. Early forecasts are expecting thunderstorms on Wednesday night and the potential for gusts on Thursday, but it is worth noting that weather can turn on a dime in Florida.
While the 'Bear Trap' holes of 15, 16 and 17 will garner the majority of the headlines for the level of difficulty they present, holes five, six and seven are almost equally as challenging. To make matters worse, 26 water hazards and 107 sand traps are littered throughout the venue, and golfers can begin to feel trapped by the unforgiving landmines that pop up at all turns.
The cut line has been +1 or higher in each of the past seven years, reaching a high of +6 in 2018. Strategy off the tee will come into play, and golfers will need to know the difference of when they can be aggressive and when they need to lay up. Like almost any difficult course nowadays, PGA National is a second-shot venue that rewards long iron play, and it won't hurt players if they can show the ability to ball strike, score on par-fours and avoid bogeys. One bad shot can change the entire complexion of the event, and the course is looking to extract those strokes from you at each turn.
Let's take a look at the stats:
|
Stat |
PGA National |
Tour Average |
|
Driving Distance |
272 |
283 |
|
Driving Accuracy |
61% |
60% |
|
GIR Percentage |
59% |
65% |
|
Scrambling Percentage |
55% |
57% |
|
Average Three-Putts Per Round |
0.44 |
0.54 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Tommy Fleetwood leads the way at 10/1 and is followed closely by Brooks Koepka at 11/1, Rickie Fowler at 12/1, Gary Woodland at 20/1, Justin Rose at 22/1 and Louis Oosthuizen at 25/1. Keith Mitchell is the defending champion of the event and enters the week available at 75/1.
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained Approach 25%
- Ball Striking 20%
- Proximity 150+ Yards 15%
- Bogey Avoidance 15%
- Par-Three Average 12.5%
- Par-Four Average 12.5%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
High-Priced DFS Players
There are four players this week priced above $10,000:
Tommy Fleetwood ($11,600) - We are dealing with a weaker event this weekend in Florida, but it is worth noting that Tommy Fleetwood is more expensive at $11,600 than Rory McIlroy was last weekend at the WGC-Mexico. It goes without saying that Fleetwood's price took me by surprise, but should we be giving him real consideration as the man to beat? To answer that question in a nutshell, yes. The sportsbooks have made the Englishman virtually impossible to bet at his 10/1 outright number, but that doesn't' mean the 29-year-old is off the table for all settings. Fleetwood makes for an attractive GPP option that might go overlooked because of his price tag, and he grades out first for me in my statistical model.
Brooks Koepka ($11,200) - Before we attack bookmakers about the horrible mispricing up top, we should at least analyze Brooks Koepka's comments about his left knee. I always hesitate taking anything the four-time major winner says when it comes to a soundbite, but he has been on record that his left knee is not 100% and likely won't feel like his right one "for a while." That comment isn't concrete enough for me to remove Koepka from consideration this weekend, but it might help to explain the apprehension sportsbooks are expecting gamblers to feel around the West Palm Beach, Florida native. Koepka is probably the most volatile option of anyone priced above $10,000 this week, and it comes down to how much of a risk you are willing to take.
Rickie Fowler ($10,800) - Although Rickie Fowler has never been shy when it comes to making a big number, the American has found more success at PGA National than any player in the field. A lot of it can be chalked up to his superb ball striking and bogey avoidance rate in general, but Fowler doesn't enter the week without some flaws of his own. A swing change may or may not still be affecting his game, but there is at least a plausible chance that the 25th-ranked player in the world has figured out his woes. Without seeing him in action for the past three weeks, it is impossible to tell for sure, but Fowler has as much upside to find success as any player in the field.
Gary Woodland ($10,300) - I'd imagine we see Gary Woodland become the natural cop-out choice for gamers that don't feel comfortable paying up in salary for Tommy Fleetwood, Brooks Koepka or Rickie Fowler. You won't hear any gripes from me for anyone that does decide to go that route, but I do believe Woodland has some flaws of his own that are at least moderately concerning. The 17th-ranked player in the world has never performed exceptionally well during the Florida swing as a whole, but he has discussed his affinity for PGA National in the past, saying that “I love this golf course for me." A second-place showing in 2017 shows that to be true, although it is worth mentioning that he has failed to break the top-35 in his other three attempts here since 2014.
Mid-To-Low-Priced DFS Players
Justin Rose ($9,900) - An argument could be made that Justin Rose is the class of this field and deserves to be priced higher than he is this week, but I am not as bullish on his prospects as some. When you think of what is required to find success at PGA National, total driving, ball striking and long iron play will place Rose at the top of some lists, but I worry about his current form he brings into the event. The Englishman has failed to finish better than 28th in his three main starts on the PGA Tour during his 2020 campaign, and the majority of his issues have stemmed from his paltry 57.22% GIR percentage. Sure, it is possible that Rose turns on the jets and uses his pristine long irons to work his way up the leaderboard, but I wasn't a massive fan of what I saw during his last tournament at the Genesis Invitational.
Louis Oosthuizen ($9,700) - Louis Oosthuizen was terrible last weekend in Mexico, but things could have been much worse if it weren't for his putter. The South African gained 8.9 shots with his flat stick over the four rounds, finishing the week in 51st place after losing 12.9 shots tee to green. I'm willing to give Oosthuizen the benefit of the doubt because of how great he has been throughout his career with his long irons and on par-fours, but I'd be lying if I didn't say I was concerned.
Viktor Hovland ($9,500) - Coming off of his first PGA Tour win at the Puerto Rico Open, there isn't too much to dislike about Viktor Hovland's game. A premier ball striker that can avoid big numbers, Hovland's only kryptonite might be his questionable around the green game at this point in his career. With players featuring six percent fewer greens hit in regulation, that statistic might be more relevant this week than most, but it would be foolish to remove him from your board entirely because of one concern.
Sungjae Im ($9,300) - Sungjae Im's outright price is too shallow for me during the majority of tournaments, but I do find it interesting that we have been given an increase this week, especially when we had been getting shorter prices in better fields not too long ago. I'm not a fan of Im on a Poa putting surface, so I think the switch back to Bermuda should do him well. The South Korean is capable of playing tough courses, and his ability to produce birdies to go along with avoiding bogeys should bode well for him in Florida.
Billy Horschel ($9,200) - Past course history is going to propel Billy Horschel into being perhaps the top selection, but it is essential to realize what you are getting yourself into if you take the former Florida Gator. To me, Horschel is just as likely to provide a top-10 finish as he is to implode and miss the cut. I won't argue against anyone who wants to play him solely for GPP purposes, but his high ownership percentage and combustibility rate has me considering him as a full fade - even if he does grade out decently for me across the board.
Shane Lowry ($9,100) - We have to be careful this week of attaching too much weight to current statistics. Mexico's high elevation has thrown short-term results out the window, and it is pronounced across the board when you take a look at driving distance totals and things of that nature. Lowry's 320.5-yard driving average in 2020 is being propelled by four rounds of grip it and rip it golf from nearly 8,000 feet above sea level, but it doesn't mean Lowry doesn't still have an ideal game to find success at PGA National. This is more of a credit to Lowry than it is a shot at Fleetwood, but there is no reason these two golfers should be separated by $2,500 on DraftKings. You can make a strong argument that Lowry is one of the best players in the field and is underpriced at his $9,100 mark.
Byeong Hun An ($8,800) - If Byeong Hun An could have one of you guys out there reading this article hit his putts for him, he might already be a PGA Tour winner. I'd be an even bigger disappointment with my putting stroke than Hun An, so I didn't include myself into the mix, but it goes to show that the 28-year-old isn't far away from a title if he could ever be neutral on the greens. The South Korean has played this event twice, losing 5.62 shots with his putter in 2019, but he was still able to produce a 36th place result. Look for Hun An to emphasize his ball-striking prowess, and let's hope that he puts together a halfway decent effort on the greens.
Joaquin Niemann ($8,700) - I typically prefer Joaquin Niemann at birdie fests, but a strong case could be made for him because of his sheer brilliance with his irons. Niemann should see a reduction in ownership being priced near Byeong Hun An and Daniel Berger, allowing the Chilean to be deployed as an attractive GPP target.
Corey Conners ($8,200) - Like many players in this field, the ability to get away from Poa Annua greens should be positive news to Corey Conners' ears. Conners is a below-average putter on any surface, but he has shown an ability to succeed on Bermuda in the past, winning the Valero Texas Open on the grass type last season. The Canadian flirted with the top of the leaderboard in Mexico for a few days, and his capacity to gain strokes off the tee and with his irons should come into play this weekend in Florida.
Russell Knox ($7,600) - After back-to-back top-three finishes at PGA National in 2014 and 2015, things have gone in the wrong direction for Russell Knox over his past three attempts. His nearly 13% projected ownership on Monday shows that most gamers have forgiven him for his recent results at this venue, but it is always challenging to eat chalk in GPPs when you don't think the player has winning upside. Knox's $7,600 price tag does make it more realistic to go down that road because you don't need as much boom potential when dealing with golfers in the $7,000 range, but I still prefer him as a cash-game play - even if his past three showings here should indicate otherwise.
Jason Kokrak ($7,500) - On the surface, Jason Kokrak has not been great at PGA National. A ninth-place result last season does highlight his potential, but the American had missed two cuts in a row before his top-10 finish. While I don't believe Kokrak's two consecutive failed attempts should be discounted, it is critical to note that five of his last eight rounds here have resulted in even-par golf or better. His 79 in 2016 and 76 the year prior aren't ideal, but they are two rounds I am willing to consider aberrational outliers.
*** JASON KOKRAK HAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE EVENT
Keegan Bradley ($7,400) - When we look at Keegan Bradley's strengths, strong ball-striking is what comes to mind. I'm not sure that has necessarily helped him at PGA National with his four straight finishes outside the top-48, but Bradley is a golfer that is capable of getting hot if he can avoid his propensity for mistakes. In his previous 24 rounds compared to the field at courses with difficult scoring and moderate to worse wind, Bradley ranks first in strokes gained approach, first in ball striking and second in bogey avoidance.
Russell Henley ($7,400) - Even with five missed cuts over his last six events, Russell Henley's victory here in 2014 will provide a boost in ownership on DFS sites. The Honda Classic is a tournament where you are going to have to feel uncomfortable with your lineup and will likely result in one of the lowest six-of-six percentages of the entire season. For that reason, players like Henley do come back into play as options to consider for their upside, but it is going to feel painful rostering the majority of this range.
Doc Redman ($6,900) - No matter the event, Doc Redman has consistently garnered interest near the bottom of the salary board. This week is no different with his nearly 10 percent projected ownership as of Monday, but it is not difficult to understand why the public is drawn to backing the 160th-ranked player in the world. I never love the idea of taking a chalky sub-$7,000 golfer in GPPs, but I don't mind using him as a salary-saver in cash-game lineups. Redman has made eight of his past 10 cuts and has a style of game that should find success with his plodding nature.
Brian Stuard ($6,700) - Ten out of 12 made cuts in a row does provide optimism for Brian Stuard, who has shown the ability to strategically find his way around PGA National in the past. Stuard's proximity numbers and ability to score on par-threes and four should help him to find success on a tight track.
Tim Wilkinson ($6,600) - When you get this far down the board, the main goal is to find dollar savers that can still sneak in a top-25 result. Tim Wilkinson has been able to generate three of those in his past five tournaments but will go overlooked because of his perceived lack of upside. Wilkinson grades out within the top-25 for me in my model and is someone I will be using when in a pinch.
Mark Anderson ($6,300) - Mark Anderson has gained strokes with his irons in six of his previous eight tournaments and grades out inside the top-15 for me in my model in bogey avoidance, strokes gained approach and par-three average. His three top-40 finishes in his previous four events is encouraging and Anderson is someone that can be had for just about one percent ownership on the week.
