RADIO
DraftKings and FanDuel are giving us two short slates on the weekend as there are just five games on Sunday's main slate after a six-gamer on Saturday. I guess they like to save the 13-game slates for random Tuesdays for some reason. I shouldn't be complaining because sorting through those mega-slates is a gigantic headache, and it's a lot easier to work through injury news and last-second COVID scratches when we're only dealing with a handful of contests.
There are three games that look especially appealing tonight for DFS purposes. They are, in order: Magic-Lakers, Wolves-Blazers, and Pelicans-Spurs. These games all rate out high in my K-Rate model since they're all at least six points clear of the Nets-Pistons game in terms of implied total, and they should all have a fast pace to them. Both teams in the Lakers-Magic duel give up a ton of fantasy points and that game is projected to be the fastest-paced, but there's also a big 11-point spread in favor of the Lakers. Blowout concerns are certainly in play at the Staples Center, so prioritizing Wolves-Blazers and Pelicans-Spurs could be a crucial move if the Lakers' studs aren't going to get their full run. Let's get to it.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 12/12/21. Remember to monitor injury news as the slate can completely change before lineups lock.
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DraftKings and FanDuel Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Jalen Brunson - PG, DAL vs. OKC ($5,300 DK; $5,800 FD)
Doncic has already been ruled out, so we can look to Brunson as a plug-in-play as he's underpriced for what his role grows to without the superstar on the floor. He jumps to a 25.8% usage rate with a 1.06 FPTS/min rate without Doncic and while his production hasn't been eye-popping this season, he does average a solid 28.1 DK PPG and he has a 40+ FPTS ceiling here tonight. The Thunder are surprisingly good against PG's, but they give up the fourth-most FPPG overall and Brunson shouldn't have any trouble reaching and exceeding value tonight.
Cole Anthony - PG, ORL vs. LAL ($8,200 DK; $8,400 FD)
Anthony has been the de-facto leader of this Magic club this season, leading the team by a country mile in both usage rate (28.9%) and FPTS/min (1.18) with Jalen Suggs off the floor. He's averaging 39 DK PPG this year and has spiked for over 53 DK points in two of his last eight contests. He's taking a ton of shots and contributing 6.1 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game, so his DFS production isn't completely shot-dependent. That'll play against a Lakers squad that ranks 30th in DvP and is allowing the second-most FPPG to PG's this season. I'd much rather target the Lakers side of the ball in this one, but Anthony is a sneaky way to run it back with a mini-game stack with LeBron/AD tonight.
Cam Thomas - PG/SG, BKN vs. DET ($3,500 DK, $3,900 FD)
James Harden has already been announced out for this contest, and he'll join Paul Millsap and Joe Harris on the sidelines against the Pistons. Enter Cam Thomas, a rookie who has ramped up his playing time recently and has popped at least 20 DK points in three of his last four games. With those three players off the floor, Thomas is second on the team in usage rate (25.2%) behind Kevin Durant, and he's averaging a health 0.97 FPTS/min in that split. The Pistons can't guard PG's as they're allowing the sixth-most FPPG to the position this season. If you're viewing Thomas as more of a SG, the Pistons are allowing the fifth-most FPPG to SG's over their last seven games. Durant is certainly going to get his, but there will be value plays to pluck at from the Nets with Harden's usage and fantasy points needing to come from somewhere.
GPP PG:
Dennis Smith Jr. - PG, POR vs. MIN ($6,300 DK, $5,500 FD)
This play is going to look a whole lot better if Damian Lillard (questionable) doesn't make his return tonight, but DSJ would still be in play as a tournament piece if Dame is in. He's playing an ungodly amount of minutes recently, playing between 37 and 42 minutes in each of his last three games. He scored between 31 and 41.5 DK points in each game during that stretch as he's taking a lot of shots and contributing nicely across the board. The Wolves do a decent job statistically against PG's, but DSJ plays a bit of both and could be shifted more to the SG side with McCollum now out and Lillard potentially playing. The Wolves are allowing the fifth-most FPPG to the SG position.
Others to consider: Hamidou Diallo ($3,600 DK), Patty Mills ($4,900 DK, $4,900 FD), Cade Cunningham ($7,500 DK, $7,400 FD), Josh Jackson ($3,200 DK, $3,700 FD)
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DraftKings and FanDuel Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Kevin Durant - SF/PF, BKN vs. DET ($11,000 DK, $10,800 FD)
Durant is a very clear pay-up option tonight with Harden, Millsap, and Harris already ruled. KD's averaging an astronomical 34.4% usage rate and 1.69 FPTS/min with those three off the floor this season - he basically does everything for the team in this split. Vegas is projecting an 8.5-point spread tonight, so while a blowout could still be in the cards against the lowly Pistons, it's a lot less likely to occur now that Harden won't be participating. We'll definitely want Durant out there for his full workload tonight as the matchup is very appealing. The Pistons allow the seventh-most FPPG to opposing teams overall and they're also allowing the seventh-most FPPG to opposing SF's this season. Durant has also killed the Pistons historically, averaging 27.4/7.4/4.4/0.9/1 over 23 games in his career.
Saddiq Bey - SF, DET vs. BKN ($4,800 DK, $4,800 FD)
There are a few pieces on Detroit that you can look to as runback options in that game, but Bey is my favorite of them all at his cheap price tag. Jerami Grant and Kelly Olynyk will be out, and while Bey's usage rate doesn't jump up much (20.2% to 21.5%), his FPTS/min rate sees a massive increase (0.81 to 1.04) with them off the floor this season. In that split, he's tied with Cade Cunningham for the team lead in FPTS/min...and he's about $3,000 cheaper. There's not much we can look at from a matchup advantage standpoint as the Nets do a great job at limiting fantasy production, but the fantasy points have to come from someone outside of Cunningham now that Grant will be out, and I believe Bey will have a significant role in this game.
Kristaps Porzingis - PF, DAL vs. OKC ($8,000 DK, $8,500 FD)
It's everyone's favorite player to select in DFS lineups - the Unicorn. With Doncic off the floor, Porzingis holds a 28.9% usage rate and 1.35 FPTS/min - that per minute fantasy production leads the Mavericks squad by a long shot and it's something we can confidently point to as an indicator of his expectations in this matchup. The Thunder allow the fourth-most FPPG to opponents overall, and they're allowing the most FPPG to the PF position this season. They specifically struggle with bleeding points and rebounds to the position, and those are the two things Porzingis does best. He hasn't been in the best form lately, but he has a nice floor and a 50+ point ceiling in this matchup.
Others to consider: Josh Giddey ($5,500 FD), Trey Lyles ($3,500 DK, $3,700 FD), Anthony Davis ($10,400 DK, $10,000 FD), Nassir Little ($3,900 DK, $4,200 FD), Robert Covington ($3,500 DK)
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Jonas Valanciunas - C, NOP vs. SAS ($8,400 DK, $7,700 FD)
If you can swing the salary, JVal is my favorite center play on the slate tonight. The Spurs are coming off a back-to-back where they got smoked by the Nuggets, and Jokic went for 35/17/8/1/2 against them. Valanciunas is certainly not Jokic, but the Spurs didn't overhaul their frontcourt since last night and remain extremely vulnerable to opposing bigs. They're allowing the seventh-most FPPG to the position and the third-most 3PTM to centers, which is an area that the veteran can take advantage of. He's taking 2.4 3PT's per game and making them at an impressive 46.3% clip. He could definitely spike for 50+ FPTS in this matchup, and if his 3PT shot is falling, there's upside for 60-70+ FPTS game here.
Jusuf Nurkic - C, POR vs. MIN ($7,100 DK; $6,100 FD)
Nurk is more appealing on FanDuel where he's $1,000 cheaper, but you can feel free to get to him over on DraftKings as well. His minutes are always a point of concern as he tends to be valuable when he's getting close to 30 minutes, but he has a hard time reaching value when he's getting around 20 minutes. He has seen 28 minutes in each of his last two games and we can assume he'll get his full allotment of minutes since they'll need him out there to guard Karl-Anthony Towns for most of the night. This matchup can't get a whole lot better as the Wolves are allowing the fifth-most FPTS per game to the position, with most of the production they're allowing coming from the points and rebounds categories. Nurkic is averaging 13.3 points and 10.2 rebounds per game this season, and his ceiling games come when he can put up 20+ points. I like his chances to do so here tonight.
Others to consider: LaMarcus Aldridge ($5,900 DK, $6,000 FD), Dwight Powell ($3,300 DK), Jakob Poeltl ($6,700 FD)
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