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We have a 5-game main slate on tap tonight. Scratch that, now a 4-game main slate with the CWS/DET game getting scratched as it is now a part of a doubleheader. It is an ugly 4-game slate and one that will be pretty chalky at the pitching position but does have a few ways to get different with the bats. Playing the ownership game outside of the chalk SP Trevor Bauer will be a major point of lineup building on Thursday.
The slate starts up top at pitching with Trevor Bauer as he is far and away the elite pitching option tonight. He brings a 20+ maybe even 25+ floor into action. Finding the SP2 will be much more difficult, likely just playing ownership at that point. The Dodgers will be very popular bats tonight and for a good reason, as they take on Lauer. After the Dodgers, there are a few popular places, but overall it will be rather easy to be different once a few pieces of value are found. Listen in to MLB DFS Quick Hits to get all the ways to attack the day's action.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 4/29/2021. The lineup will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also check out today's FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks and read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports too. It’s also important to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. If you have any questions or comments, contact me on Twitter @bdentrek.
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DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Trevor Bauer - P, LAD at MIL ($11,300)
As mentioned above, Bauer is the elite tonight, and it isn't really close. Bauer has thrown at least six innings in each of his first five starts this season and has racked up a 2.53 ERA and 2.81 xFIP. Bauer is striking out an insane 37.8% of the batters he has faced this season while walking only 8%. He has had some trouble with the long ball this season, allowing six through five games, but three have gone to the Padres (two to Fernando Tatis Jr.), and two were in Coors Field. He faces a Brewers team tonight that has been a very popular target for attacking with SP. On the season, the Brewers are striking out around 28% of the time versus RHP with a .209 average and an 81 wRC+. Bauer brings an amazing floor into tonight's action, averaging over 28 DK points per start, scoring over 27 DK points in four of five starts, and nothing lower than 23 DK points. On a slate with such horrible pitching, it is great to lock in 20+ points. Eat the Bauer chalk and differentiate your lineups elsewhere.
Kyle Gibson - P, TEX vs. BOS ($7,000)
When it comes to SP2 on tonight's slate, it is not pretty. It comes down to Gibson and Alzolay currently, and if Gibson is chalky, then the decision to play Alzolay becomes very easy. For now, we discuss Gibson. Gibson comes into tonight's action on an absolute roll after getting destroyed in the season opener. In his last four starts, Gibson has thrown at least six innings in each start. Gibson has allowed only two runs over those four games while striking out at least five in three of four starts. He is also keeping the ball on the ground with a near 54% ground ball rate. Gibson is still a heavy sinker/slider pitcher but has introduced a cutter into the mix, and that has been the difference so far. He has a tough matchup versus the Red Sox, but the price tag on a really bad slate works out for Gibson's decent play. Reminder- if he is chalk, then we fade and stack the daylights out of the Red Sox.
Other Options: Adbert Alzolay (CHC at ATL) $7,200
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DraftKings DFS Infielders
Will Smith - C, LAD at Eric Lauer ($4,300)
It has been a slow start to the 2021 season for Smith, who has been sharing playing time with Austin Barnes (nice value if he starts over Smith). It does seem Smith may be warming up a bit as he has hit safely in three of his last four starts. He even has an extra-base hit in each of those games, including a home run on Tuesday. Smith has scored seven or more DK points in those three starts, and a solid floor is going to be very important on this four-game slate. Last year Smith loved facing LHP, hitting .294 with a 136 wRC+. If you want to save money at the position, then target Jose Trevino, Jonah Heim, or Daulton Varsho.
Bobby Dalbec - 1B, BOS at Kyle Gibson ($3,400)
We are back on Bobby D today as a nice, low-priced tournament play. Dalbec is hitting .300 over his last 10 games and, most importantly, found the cheap seats on Tuesday. We have been waiting for that first home run for way too long. We know the power is coming, even with only one home run in the last 10 games; Dalbec has a .200 ISO, is barreling the ball 15.8% of the time, and has a hard-hit rate 52.6%. There will be more home runs to come, and it could start tonight versus Gibson, who has some nice reverse splits. Last year RHH hit .283 with a .434 SLG, over one HR/9, and lastly, a near 25% HR/FB. Gibson has looked good, but the Gibson we saw on Opening Day is always waiting around the corner, making Dalbec and the Red Sox a nice tournament play tonight.
Garrett Hampson - 2B/OF, COL at Luke Weaver ($4,200)
The Rockies/DBacks game has the highest total on the slate, and I will definitely be looking at stacking it up a bit. Most of my stack will come from the Road Rockies' side of things. Hampson checks the box as a nice play tonight, especially on the chance, he hits towards the top of the order. His spot in the order keeps going back and forth from 2nd or 7th, so we will have to wait for lineups to know for sure. One thing we do know, Hampson has been hitting. Hampson is hitting .292 over the last two weeks (12 games) with a .292 ISO and a 125 wRC+. He even has three home runs and a stolen base over the stretch. Over the last 10 games, he's averaging close to 10 DK points per game. In recent years LHH and RHH have hit Weaver, but RHH has had the upper hand. RHH is hitting around .260 with an SLG over .400, striking out less than 20% of the time and hitting over one HR/9. A lot initially will look at the LHH Rockies, and some, like Ryan McMahon, are just fine but do not sleep on Hampson, especially if hitting near the top of the order.
Corey Seager - SS, LAD at Eric Lauer ($4,800)
After an amazing 2020 season, the encore would be very tough for Seager, but so far, so good. He had slowed down a bit over the last weekend, but the weekend series with the Padres and then some friendly Reds bullpen has woken the 2020 MVP's bat back up. He has multi-hit games in three of the last four games. Overall on the season, he is still hitting .263 with a .211 ISO and four home runs. The quality of contact is still outstanding, too, as he barrels the ball 11.7% of the time with a hard-hit rate of 51.9%. Tonight he faces the lefty Lauer, but do not worry as Seager is just fine versus LHP. Last season, his MVP season, Seager, hit .275 with a .232 ISO. So far, in 2021, he has a .270 average and .232 ISO. Seager is a little cheaper than the top SS options tonight and makes an outstanding play versus Lauer's hopefully lower ownership.
Austin Riley - 3B, ATL vs. Adbert Alzolay ($3,200)
We have been talking Riley up on QH in recent weeks as he has been too cheap and just raking. Well, he has been paying off. Over the last nine games, Riley is hitting .462 with a .423 ISO, three home runs, and a crazy 282 wRC+. Riley is crushing baseballs, and it shows with a 10% barrel rate and 50% hard-hit rate. Riley has been hitting 7th most games but snuck into the 6th spot on Wednesday, making this price tag even sweeter. Alzolay has been nasty on the mound but has also allowed two to four runs in each of his three starts this season, with two home runs and a 42.9% hard-hit rate. He does not go long in the game, meaning more Cubs bullpen as well. Riley is a great value yet again and could be a lower owned piece in a likely popular Braves stack.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Pavin Smith - 1B/OF, AZ vs. Antonio Senzatela ($3,900)
Smith has gone hitless in his last two games, but he safely hit seven of eight games before that. Even with the two O'fers, Smith is hitting .267 over his last 10 games with five XBH while striking out less than 20% of the time. The extra-base hits have been coming in bunches thanks to a 13.9% barrel rate and 55.6% hard-hit rate over these 10 games. Smith has been hitting at the top of the order and has a nice matchup versus Senzatela tonight, which you can target with LHH. Last year LHH hit .247 with a .400 SLG, one HR/9, and most importantly, many balls in play as Senzatela only struck out 11.3% of LHH he has faced. That has continued this season, only striking out 10.3% of LHH. Smith is a solid cash game play with tournament upside in the highest total game of the day.
AJ Pollock - OF, LAD at Eric Lauer ($3,100)
You know it's either a small slate or frisky, heck, maybe both if I am talking about Pollock. The crazy thing is, Pollock deserves to be discussed as he has been hitting well over his last six games. When healthy, Pollock always hits. Over his last six games, Pollock has safely hit five of six games for a .389 average with a .222 ISO, a 185 wRC+, and a 61.5% hard-hit rate. He has two XBH (one HR) and has even stolen two bases. Pollock has scored seven or more DK points in four of six games and has double-digit DK games in three of six games. He gets to face the LHP Lauer tonight, and that is music to Pollock's ears. He rakes versus LHP. In Pollock's career, he is hitting .284 with a .232 ISO. On a slate where value will need to be found, and some can be quite wishy-washy, Pollock is far and away the best value we have before lineups are released. He is a cash game and tournament play everywhere tonight.
J.D. Martinez - OF, BOS at Kyle Gibson ($5,700)
Martinez is back in a big way in 2021 and will look to keep crushing tonight. On the season, JDM is hitting .337 with seven home runs and a .348 ISO. His quality of contact is not too shabby either, with a 13.4% barrel rate and 49.3% hard-hit rate. We already mentioned the reverse splits Gibson offers up, but let's talk about some BVP, something I do not often do, but we have a decent sample size in this situation. JDM is hitting .303 (10-33) versus Gibson with two home runs and a .212 ISO. JDM has seen and hit Gibson often and makes for one of the better pay-up options tonight as the Red Sox may be a little contrarian with potential Gibson chalk coming up tonight.
DraftKings DFS Stacks
- Boston Red Sox (Kyle Gibson, RHP)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (Eric Lauer, LHP)
- Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks Game Stack (Antonio Senzatela, RHP at Luke Weaver, RHP)
- Sneaky Stack- Atlanta Braves (Adbert Alzolay, RHP)
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