RADIO
Saturday presents a strong seven-game slate for the NBA on DraftKings, and we have more than enough positive game environments and defenseless teams to take advantage of tonight. There are two games with egregious implied totals in MIN/WAS (236 points) and DAL/BKN (238.5 points) while NO/SAS and the 76ers are also in great spots, which is also reflected in the K-Rate model below. It should be noted that the CLE/PHI and UTA/ORL games both have spreads over 10 points, so weigh that blowout risk as you normally would. I'm feeling very stars-and-scrubsy today.
*4 PM CT update
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DraftKings DFS Guards
James Harden - PG, BKN vs. DAL ($11,000)
Harden has been on an absolute tear with KD out and really ever since coming over in the trade to the Nets. He's averaging 59.32 DK points in his last 10 games, and that's with "floor" games of 39.75 and 43.25 thrown in the mix. He's shooting lights-out from deep and his rebounding, assist, and steal averages have seen significant jumps over his recent hot stretch. Kyrie actually holds a 3% usage rate advantage with KD out, but Harden has become the primary point guard and his 1.50 DK points per minute rate crushes Kyrie's 1.38 rate. Dallas ranks middle-of-the-pack against opposing guards, but they've been a bottom-five defense overall and in the last 10 games, and this game projects to be high-paced and high-scoring. We want James Harden in those scenarios - even at the highest salary on the slate.
Bradley Beal - SG, WAS vs. MIN ($9,200)
You'll want to get bits of pieces of this game, and both Beal and KAT should be your focus amongst the studs. Westy looks fine, too, but I love the consistency that the league's leading scorer brings at his agreeable DK price tag. He needs 46 DK points to reach 5x value and is averaging 49.8 DK points on the year. He's been over 45 DK points in eight of his last 10 games and has shown 55-60+ DK point potential in flashes this season. The Wolves allow the seventh-most DK points per game to opposing SG's and allow the third-most DK points per game overall. This will be certain to feature extra possessions as the Wizards lead the league in pace and the Wolves rank eighth. The Wolves missing Malik Beasley is sure to have a negative effect on their defense, too, as they just simply don't have the kind of depth to run quality defenders at Beal all game long.
Lonnie Walker IV - SG/SF, SAS vs. NOP ($4,300)
Update: DDR will play, but Walker still looks like a great value filler with a bunch of Spurs already ruled out tonight.
This pick is contingent on the status of DeMar DeRozan - if he's playing, scale back your Walker shares. However, if he's out, Walker is likely to get another start and at least 30 minutes, which will absolutely play at his dirt-cheap price tag. He got a start last game with the Spurs very short-handed and while he shot poorly and didn't do a whole lot, he played 33 minutes and wound up with 22 DK points (5.95x value). He was the third-best SG play on the DraftKings slate in terms of value. This game is looking like the third-best environment to get DFS pieces from and the Pelicans allow the third-most DK points per game to opposing SG's.
Bonus G: Dejounte Murray ($7,900), Jaylen Nowell ($3,200), Jordan McLaughlin ($3,900), Russell Westbrook ($9,900), Shake Milton ($4,200), Luka Doncic ($10,800), Mike Conley ($6,300), Derrick Rose ($5,300)
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DraftKings DFS Forwards
Anthony Edwards - SG/SF, MIN vs. WAS ($6,300)
This is still a fair price for a player who will see a significant usage and DK points per minute bump in the absence of Malik Beasley (and still missing D Lo). While KAT has only been on the floor for 66.2 of Edwards' 216.3 minutes sans D Lo and Beasley, Ant-Man's usage rate spikes to 33.4% and his DK point per minute rate jumps to 1.05 in the scenario we'll see tonight. That is a very significant number. Though Ant has been inconsistent this year, he has exceeded 5x value on his current price tag in half of his last 10 games and has outputs of 51.25 and 45.25 (last game) in that stretch. He took 20 shots last game and there's no reason to expect he won't continue to be aggressive with Beasley now out for a while. The matchup advantage puts it over the top for me. The Wizards have the 10th-best defensive rating over their last 10 games but the third-worst defensive rating overall. They allow the fourth-most DK points per game overall, allow the fifth-most DK points per game to SG's, and this game has the fastest projected pace and second-highest implied total. Getcha some Ant-Man in GPP's tonight.
Jarred Vanderbilt - PF/C, MIN vs. WAS ($4,100)
While it's still far too early to say we know how newly-minted head coach Chris Finch is going to distribute his minutes, we do know that Vanderbilt saw 34 minutes and put up 32.5 DK points in his first game on the Wolves' sideline. It was an overtime game and it was against the Bulls, but it feels safe to project him for minutes in the mid-to-upper 20's as the starter and tonight's matchup is just as juicy. The Wizards rank 24th in DvP and this game has the highest projected pace and second-highest implied total, and the absence of both Beasley and Russell means Vando should see a few extra opportunities. He's averaging an even 1.00 DK points per minute with them both off the floor, so he'd really only need about 20 minutes to reach 5x value tonight. He will definitely get over 20 minutes and the matchup-boost could propel him to 6x-7x+ value.
Michael Porter Jr. - SF/PF, DEN vs. OKC ($6,500)
MPJ has been an enigma this year, to say the least, but I'm willing to go back to him as he's finally showing some form and the Nuggets continue to be shorthanded in the frontcourt. He played at least 40 minutes in his last two games and had usable outputs of 30.5 and 37.5 DK points as his shooting and rebounding totals are starting to come around. The Thunder are actually really solid against opposing forwards and this isn't the sexiest game environment on the slate, but the opportunity will continue to be there for Porter to contribute in the starting lineup of a potent offense with an MVP candidate at the helm. The 225.5 point implied total is higher than expected and we should be able to snag some non-Jokic and non-SGA shares in this game.
Bonus F: Ben Simmons ($8,700), Furkan Korkmaz ($3,200), Rui Hachimura ($5,800), Trey Lyles ($3,800) boost if DeRozan or L.A is out
DraftKings DFS Centers
Karl-Anthony Towns - C, MIN vs. WAS ($10,100)
It might be wise to include a few lineups featuring two stud centers with how the pricing and matchups set up tonight. KAT profiles as the best play of a loaded bunch that includes Embiid (vs. CLE), Jokic (@ OKC), and Vucevic (vs. UTA). He's in the best spot of the four stud centers with the slate's fastest projected pace, second-highest total, and the Wizards utter ineptitude against opposing centers (third-most DK point per game against C's, 27th in DvP). He will be an even clearer focal point of the offense now that Beasley is serving a suspension and Russell remains out - he holds a team-leading 34.6% usage rate and 1.53 DK points per minute rate in such situations. He's averaging 52.2 DK points per game over his last five and has 60-70+ DK point potential in this spot.
Bonus C (in order): Joel Embiid ($10,300), Nikola Jokic ($10,900), Robin Lopez ($3,700)
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