RADIO
Five of the seven games on the Saturday slate have implied totals over 228 points, so we will have plenty of options to choose from for DFS studs and value. The SAC/ATL game profiles as the top game to target, though POR/MIN and MIL/WAS are very intriguing with their high totals, high pace, and limited defense. The Bucks rate out as the top team to target (via K-Rate) for DFS production as the Wizards play zero defense and hold the fastest pace in the league. The Kings, Hawks, Wolves, Blazers, and Raptors are all in great spots overall as well.
*1:30 PM CT update
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DraftKings DFS Guards
Damian Lillard - PG, POR vs. MIN ($10,700)
It's Dame against the Wolves; do I really need to elaborate further? He's still regularly hitting the 50-60+ DK point range and holds a 50.7 DK point per game average for the year, and he put up 79 DK points just nine games ago. Minnesota gives up the second-most DK points per game to opposing PG's and they rank dead-last in my positional K-Rate model, and these ranks don't account for their current state as Jaylen Nowell and Ricky Rubio are the primary guards right now. Lillard's at 33.8% usage and 1.44 DK points per minute with the Blazers' current lineup this season and it's not likely that he'll be slowing down or having a rare off night against this squad.
Norman Powell - SG/SF, TOR vs. CHA ($7,300)
It's tempting to go with Lowry and I'd have no hesitation at getting to both, but I'm preferring Powell here with the discount. The matchup is OK but it's the usage and DFS production void that has been left behind with Anunoby, Siakam, and Van Vleet all out again tonight that makes this an appealing spot. With those three out, Powell actually exceeds Lowry's usage rate at a healthy 28.3% and equals his 1.14 DK points per-minute rate. Powell gives you a bankable floor and a 45+ point ceiling tonight, and at a sizeable $1,400 less than Lowry.
Kevin Huerter - SG, ATL vs. SAC ($5,700)
Huerter has increased his shot attempts per game recently and he's starting to produce in the counting stats as well - he's averaging 13.25 shot attempts and four "stocks" per game over his last four. DFS production has followed, of course, as he's averaging 31.25 DK points per game over that stretch and has put up 30+ DK points in five of his last seven. Reddish and Hunter being out have kept his role secure, and that's what we like to hear with a high-paced, high-scoring game expected against the Kings. The Kings allow the second-most DK points per game to opposing SG's and rank 29th in defensive efficiency against the position. Needs just 28.5 DK points to hit 5x value.
Bonus G: De'Aaron Fox ($9,200), Kyle Lowry ($8,700), Trae Young ($9,800), Gary Trent Jr. ($5,400)
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DraftKings DFS Forwards
Gordon Hayward - SF/PF, CHA vs. TOR ($7,200)
The 11th-year vet out of Butler profiles as a very strong play tonight against the shorthanded Raptors. The loss of Anunoby, Van Vleet, and Siakam severely impacts their ability to defend all positions, so Hayward will find it easier than usual to navigate his mid-range and outside game tonight. He has been more up-and-down than you'd like at his salary and the team being fully healthy does make him a little volatile. He certainly has the 40-50+ DK point game still in him, though, as he showed just two games ago in a favorable matchup against the Wolves. The Raptors present another very favorable matchup as they've allowed the third-most DK points per game to opposing SF's this year and rank dead last in DvP (and positional K-Rate).
Jaden McDaniels - SF/PF, MIN vs. POR ($3,700)
There's a decent amount of risk with using the rookie as he has a weak 13% usage rate and averages just 0.75 DK points per minute on the season. However, he could pay major dividends on the slate tonight at his rock-bottom price. He has been given the green light by new coach Chris Finch and is now playing heavy minutes with 30 and 26 minutes played in his last two, to go along with a healthy 1.25 DK points per minute in those games. He has been more aggressive and is coming off a hyper-efficient game against the Pelicans, shooting 8-for-9 (4-for-5 from 3PT) for 20 points with four rebounds, one assist, three blocks, and two steals. He's going to provide value if he can exceed 25 minutes and his newfound per-minute rates could make him a great GPP play against the extremely vulnerable Blazers frontcourt defense (allowing the most FPPG vs. PF's by a significant margin).
Giannis Antetokounmpo - PF/C, MIL vs. WAS ($11,000)
This is just way too juicy of a matchup to not love some Giannis in your lineups tonight. The Wizards have been awful on defense all year and they play at the fastest pace in the league, which makes targeting opposing offenses for DFS basically a free square on every slate they're a part of. There's not much to say that hasn't already been said about Giannis this season as he's averaging 57.8 DK points per game and has been in the 59-70+ DK point range in eight of his last 10 games. That's just madness. The only caution flag here is that the game has an 11-point spread, though that's not a huge concern because he has put up huge games in blowouts all season. Get him and Dame in lineups as core pieces and differentiate from there.
Bonus F: Stanley Johnson ($3,800), John Collins ($6,500), Deandre Bembry ($3,800), Anthony Edwards ($6,500)
DraftKings DFS Centers
Richaun Holmes - C, SAC vs. ATL ($6,400)
There are a ton of appealing centers on the slate, but Holmes looks like an amazing GPP play at his mid-range pricing and sub-10% rostership tonight. He has put up between 30 and 46.75 DK points in each of his last five games and he's just in great form while playing big minutes. Atlanta stands out as one of those matchups where you can comfortably give boosts to the per-minute rates for opposing big men - they actually rank a full eight points ahead of the next team on the slate in my positional K-rate model (evaluates opposing defenses vs. position). They allow the most FPPG to opposing centers and have been giving up ceiling games to bigs all year. He needs just 32 DK points for 5x value and that feels like his floor in this matchup.
Bonus C: Aron Baynes ($4,500), Chris Boucher ($6,600), Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,600), Clint Capela ($7,500), Naz Reid ($3,900), Cody Zeller ($4,900)
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