RADIO
It's a brand new year and we're finally at the point where we can start incorporating this season's data into our DFS research with most teams having played at least five games. There are five games included on the main slate tonight on DraftKings and while we have studs on the slate, there aren't any standout "must-plays" and value plays (at least early in the day) are difficult to uncover. The Hawks-Cavs matchup looks like an intriguing one to attack with a high projected pace and total.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings on 1/2/21. You can also check out today's FanDuel lineup picks. With COVID-19 a significant factor globally, remember to monitor injury news as the slate can completely change before line-up lock.
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DraftKings DFS Guards
Markelle Fultz - PG, ORL vs. OKC ($6,200)
The Thunder are going to be a matchup to attack on a nightly basis in DFS as they're going to be heavily overmatched in almost every game they play. Markelle Fultz is a somewhat-sneaky way to get a piece of this game - he struggled in his last game but was averaging 33.81 DK points per game prior to that performance. It's his team-leading 27.1% usage rate that really sticks out, and that number is usually a great indicator that a player will be able to take advantage of positive matchups. He's at 1.10 DK points per minute and as long as he gets his typical 30-ish minutes of playing time, he's a great bet to hit 5x value (or even 6x-7x value) against the lowly Thunder.
Darius Garland - PG/SG, CLE vs. ATL ($6,000)
Garland has been steadily impressive through five games after struggling for much of the year as a rookie. In fact, he has exceeded what he'd need for 5x value in 4-of-5 games, falling just a few points short (27.5 DK points) in his only "miss" against the 76ers. He's playing a ton of minutes (36.1 minutes per game) and taking a high volume of shots (14.8 FGA per game), which are both key for reliable fantasy production. Additionally, he's right behind Collin Sexton at third on the team in usage rate (23.8%) and is second on the squad in fantasy points per minute (0.94) with Kevin Love and Okoro off the court this year. The Cavs are in a great pace-up spot against the Hawks as their game has the highest implied total on the slate (233 points). Lastly, going up against the infamously-weak defense of Trae Young boosts his chances of putting up a big game quite considerably. Young was dead-last in real defensive plus-minus at his position last season.
Trae Young - PG, ATL vs. CLE ($10,200)
The Hawks-Cavs matchup is projecting to be the fastest-paced and highest-scoring contest on the main slate. You might want to consider utilizing the player with the highest usage rate (34%) and DK points per minute rate (1.54) in DFS contests tonight. Young has met or exceeded 5x value on his current tag in 3-of-5 games and if there aren't much better opportunities to hit a ceiling game than what he has on tap tonight. He should see a lot of Darius Garland, who ranked 80th in real defensive plus-minus last season. The high total and high pace are the main keys here, both factors that should open up Young to put up a position-leading DFS line tonight.
Bonus G: Cam Reddish ($5,000), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7,900)
DraftKings DFS Forwards
Zion Williamson - PF/C, NOP vs. TOR ($7,800)
Zion has been a mild disappointment thus far, going for 18.25 and 24 DK points in his last two games while averaging 34.9 DK points (and a measly 1.0 assists) per game through five contests. However, this looks like a prime bounce-back spot with his price dropping to a low point. He holds a high 27% usage rate and 1.15 DK points per minute, while the Raptors surprisingly come in at 24th in defensive efficiency against PF's. Pascal Siakam is a top-five defender at his position, but he's questionable to play and Zion is the kind of player who is more-or-less matchup-proof.
Norman Powell - SG/SF, TOR vs. NOP ($4,000)
Powell started in place of Pascal Siakam on 12/31 and played well, putting up a 17/4/1/1/2 line for 29 DK points over 34 minutes against the Knicks. Siakam will be back tonight and Powell will be coming off the bench, but he should still see minutes in the mid-20's and projects as a solid value play with his 20% usage rate. This game has the lowest total on the slate, but the Pelicans play at the second-fastest pace on the slate so there will likely be extra possessions available in this game.
Victor Oladipo - SG/SF, IND vs. NY ($6,700)
'Dipo has been shooting lights-out through four games this season and it's best to take notice of his form with a juicy matchup against the Knicks on tap tonight. He's shooting 55.2% overall and 54.2% from three-point range, and he's providing enough peripheral stats to contribute even if his shot isn't falling (5.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.0 steals per game). He needs 33.5 DK points to reach 5x value - he has reached that number in every game so far. He leads the team with a 25% usage rate this season and his 1.27 fantasy points per minute rate trails only Domantas Sabonis. He'll see a lot of Reggie Bullock, who ranked 91st among players qualified at his position in real defense plus-minus in the last season he qualified (2018-2019).
Bonus F: Darius Bazley ($5,100), Julius Randle ($9,100), Larry Nance ($6,900)
DraftKings DFS Centers
Andre Drummond - C, CLE vs. ATL ($9,200)
Drummond has been absolutely crushing to start the year, and tonight looks like a great time to pounce on a potential rostership dip as he put up just 37.25 DK points in his last time out against the Pacers' tough defensive frontcourt. Prior to that, he had monster games of 59.75, 57, and 64 DK points. Kevin Love and Isaac Okoro are out again, and Drummond leads the team (by a wide margin) in usage rate (29.7%), and fantasy points per minute (1.77) with those two out this season. Clint Capela is now starting at center for the Hawks, but he ranked just 34th in real defensive plus-minus among qualified centers last season, so he's not exactly a matchup to fear. This will be a high-scoring, high-paced affair and you can bet that Drummond will be gobbling up plenty of points, boards, and blocks in the process.
Bonus C: Clint Capela ($5,200), Joel Embiid (10,000)
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