RADIO
We have a nice little seven-gamer on tap today, featuring four games that have an implied total of 228.5 points or higher. There will be plenty of DFS goodness for everyone tonight - let's make sure we hit on our top picks over on the DraftKings side.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings on 1/9/21. You can also check out today's FanDuel lineup picks. With COVID-19 a significant factor globally, remember to monitor injury news as the slate can completely change before line-up lock.
Good luck RotoBallers. Let's get to it!
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DraftKings DFS Guards
Luka Doncic - PG, DAL vs ORL ($11,000)
Doncic is the clear pay-up recommendation tonight. His form is incredible after getting off to a (relatively) slow start, notching 58.75, 71.5, and 79.25 DK points in his last three contests. His last game was a 38/13/9/1/5 masterpiece, though he did shoot just 2-for-7 from three and committed eight turnovers. That simply means his DFS performance could've (and should've) been well into the 80's. His usage rate and fpts/min rate have always been high but has skyrocketed lately as the Mavs have had some injury issues - his usage rate with the projected lineup is at an unbelievable 41.2% (1.71 fpts/min) over the last two seasons. The Magic are certainly not a matchup to fear as they rank 22nd in defensive efficiency against point guards this season. The Mavs are favored by seven but if the game stays close, Doncic has a great shot at another ceiling game.
Lonnie Walker IV - SG, SAS vs. MIN ($4,300)
I'm all about Walker in this spot. Minnesota has been bleeding points defensively all season and they rank 27th in defensive efficiency against shooting guards. Walker has a modest 19% usage rate on the year, but Derrick White's continued absence opens him up for minutes in the mid-20's to low-30's. He has been serviceable at times in DFS as a value play as he's averaging 21.8 DK points per game, but this just feels like a spot where he gets closer to 30 minutes and roasts the near-non-existent defense that the Wolves employ.
Damian Lillard - PG, POR vs. SAC ($9,500)
Dame is a viable pay-up option as well in this spot, and he'd make sense paired with Doncic as I suspect many will be on the value guards tonight and few will have both studs in the same lineup. Lillard has been hot lately, going for over 43 DK points in each of his last four games (and in six-of-eight total games). He went off for a 39/7/7/3 line in his last game against the Wolves and he'll get another weak defense tonight in the Kings, who come in at 21st in defensive efficiency against point guards. Lillard has a 30% usage rate and is averaging 46.4 DK points for the season - he needs 47.5 to hit 5x on his tag tonight. Seems more likely than not that we get a ceiling game here with Lillard being the best player (by far) in a game with a slate-high 233.5-point projected total.
Bonus G: Trey Burke ($3,000), Cole Anthony ($5,500), Victor Oladipo ($7,000)
DraftKings DFS Forwards
DeMar DeRozan - SF/PF, SAS vs. MIN ($7,800)
What's up with DraftKings posting DDR as a power forward and continuously underpricing him? Whatever, we'll take it. This game is a good one to get multiple pieces to, and selecting DeRozan is a solid choice with his current form and cushy matchup. He put up 43 DK points in his last game and averages 40.4 DK points on the year with a 22% usage rate and 1.22 fpts/min rate. The Wolves rank middle-of-the-pack against small forwards but they've been a pretty brutal defense overall as they allow the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing teams (behind the Hawks and Wizards). This game has a high total of 231.5 points, so get to some DDR tonight.
Jimmy Butler - PG/SF, MIA vs. WAS ($7,400)
Butler has been a mixed bag this year with two sub-21-DK-point performances to go along with two games where he went for over 44 DK points. He's averaging 31 DK points for the season, over just five games, and his usage rate is sitting at a usable 26% (up 2% from last year). We know Butler is the kind of player who can take over a game and fill up the whole stat sheet when he's engaged and aggressive - and he's up against Westbrook and Beal tonight. He's the team's centerpiece and as such, he's underpriced in a game with a high 231 point implied total.
Maxi Kleber - PF/C, DAL vs. ORL ($4,300)
Kleber can be a productive DFS asset as a value play when he gets the minutes. It's still a small sample size, but Kleber's 0.81 fpts/min rate will certainly pay off his price tag if he can get to the 30 minutes he's projecting for. Working with even smaller sample sizes of narrowing it down to tonight's projected starting lineup, Kleber's fpts/min rate jumps to 1.3. The game against the Magic presents an opportunity for Kleber to crush value because even though they rank eighth in defensive efficiency against power forwards, they're allowing the ninth-most DK points per game to the position. Kleber is a viable pay-down option tonight.
Bonus F: James Johnson ($3,200), Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800)
DraftKings DFS Centers
Jusuf Nurkic - C, POR vs. SAC ($6,500)
This is an easy call. Sacramento ranks 27th in defensive efficiency against centers and this game has the slate's highest total as well as one of the higher projected paces. Nurkic has had an up-and-down season but has mixed in a few great games, which he's certainly capable of against this (defensively) subpar Kings' frontcourt. He holds a 21% usage rate at 1.14 fpts/min, so as long as he can stay out of foul trouble, he should approach minutes in the high-20's and provide value at his too-cheap salary.
Bonus C: Andre Drummond ($8,700), Richaun Holmes ($6,000)
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