RADIO
We have a relatively small six-game slate on tap tonight over on DraftKings, but it's certainly not a night that's lacking intrigue. The Grizzlies-Mavericks game looks to be the most promising of them all for DFS purposes as neither team plays much defense and they combine to allow the most overall fantasy points per game on the slate. Remember, the Grizzlies set an NBA record in their last game, winning by an astounding 72 points in their 152-79 victory over the Thunder. The Bulls-Nets game holds the highest implied total on the slate, the Clippers-Kings matchup is intriguing, and there will be opportunities to pick at the other matchups with the injury situations providing plenty of spots for value. The Mavericks, Heat, Clippers, Warriors, and Nets are the second half of a back-to-back, so keep that in mind as well. Let's get to it.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings on 12/4/21. You can also check out today's FanDuel lineup picks. Remember to monitor injury news as the slate can completely change before lineups lock.
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DraftKings Overview - NBA DFS Matchups
This is how the games, teams, and positional matchups shake out for tonight's slate. "K-Rate" is a metric that includes implied totals, projected pace, fantasy points against, and defensive ratings. The higher the number - the more attackable the game/opponent is for DFS purposes.
DraftKings Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Dennis Smith Jr. - PG, POR vs. BOS ($3,400)
It feels weird to say this, but Smith Jr. is close to a no-brainer at this price. The Blazers are down their top two ballhandlers in Lillard and Simons and the embattled former-Knick is expected to take over his spot in the starting lineup. Smith Jr. is shooting terribly as he's 6-for-19 over his last two games and is at just 35% on the season, but he has actually been pretty decent from a per-minute standpoint as he's at 0.98 FPTS/min for the season. Without Lillard, Simons, and Little, he holds a 26.4% usage rate (third on the team) and a 1.15 FPTS/min rate (second on the team). He should see 30 minutes at a minimum tonight, and he has a chance to completely blow his salary out of the water.
Jrue Holiday - PG, MIL vs. MIA ($7,700)
This is certainly not my favorite matchup to target - as you can see above, it ranks dead last on the slate in K-Rate. However, Giannis, Butler, and Adebayo will be inactive, which means there will be spots to target for underpriced value throughout this game. Holiday is my favorite "pay-up" option here as he holds a team-high 1.35 FPTS/min rate and a high 32.1% usage rate with Giannis (+ Lopez and Ojeleye) off the floor this season. He only needs 38.5 DK points for 5x value tonight and he has been over that number in three of his last five games, and those were with Giannis hogging usage. This matchup is definitely not as tough as it looks on paper as the Heat become a much different team defensively without their top two defenders (Adebayo and Butler) on the floor.
Luka Doncic - PG, DAL vs. MEM ($11,500)
With all the value on the slate today, we have to pay up somewhere. I really like Doncic to bounce back in this spot after he fell short with just 42 DK points last night against the Pelicans. He shot 7-for-20 from the field and 0-for-6 from three, and he concerningly has 15 turnovers over his last two games. The Grizzlies may have improved on defense sans Ja Morant, but they still rank dead-last in the league in defensive rating and they allow the fifth-most fantasy points per game overall. Doncic still holds the highest usage rate in the entire NBA at 35.8% and I want a lot of him tonight in what's projecting as the top-rated game environment on the slate.
Others to consider: Davion Mitchell ($3,400), Jalen Brunson ($4,900), Ben McLemore ($3,000), Grayson Allen ($4,500)
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DraftKings Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Duncan Robinson - SG/SF, MIA vs. MIL ($4,400)
You know going in that selecting Robinson is taking a chance that he keeps up his hot shooting because he's simply not going to produce much in any other category. He went 7-for-11 from the field last night and 4-for-7 from three, though he was 1-for-15 from three in the two games prior. The Bucks have an elite perimeter defender in Jrue Holiday, but he won't be able to cover Robinson all game long and it's more likely that he'll be glued to Kyle Lowry. The Bucks have allowed the ninth-most three-pointers overall and obviously, their defense as a whole takes a hit sans Giannis. Robinson's a GPP-only play but could pay off huge at this low salary.
Maxi Kleber - PF/C, DAL vs. MEM ($4,100)
Porzingis is questionable tonight after missing the past few games. Assuming he doesn't suit up, Kleber is very much in play once again. He put up 28.75 DK points over 31 minutes last night and he averages a solid 0.98 FPTS/min with Porz off the floor this season. The Grizzlies rank middle-of-the-pack against PF's but allow the sixth-most DK points per game to C's, so there is certainly some upside in this positional matchup. The Mavericks also notably rank #1 in K-Rate as the Grizzlies hold the worst defensive rating in the NBA and this game has a high implied total.
Jaren Jackson Jr. - PF/C, MEM vs. DAL ($7,600)
The Mavericks are actually strangely solid at defending the PF position, allowing the seventh-least DK PPG overall and the sixth-least DK PPG over their last seven games to the position. However, they may be without Porzingis again after getting crushed 54-42 (12-5 on OREB) on the boards against the PF-less Pelicans last night. Rebounding isn't Jackson's specialty as he's averaging just 5.6 rebounds per game on the season, but this is more of a bet on recent form as he has put up 42.75 and 45 DK points over his last two games. In the Grizzlies' most recent (record-breaking) game, he put up an insane line of 27/3/1/2/2...in just 20 minutes. He shot 9-for-11 from the field and 6-for-7 from three and I'm not thinking it's a smart idea to fade that kind of per-minute production in a prime matchup tonight. He's averaging a 31.1% usage rate and 1.44 FPTS/min with Morant off the floor this season. He's still too cheap.
Others to consider: Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,000), P.J. Tucker ($3,500), Norman Powell ($5,200), Keldon Johnson ($5,300), Larry Nance Jr. ($3,600)
DraftKings Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Richaun Holmes - C, SAC vs. LAC ($6,000)
This game environment projects as an appealing one relative to the slate, but I really don't have a ton of interest in most of the players at their current prices. Holmes, along with a sprinkling of the too-cheap Davion Mitchell, are the exceptions. Holmes simply feels underpriced here as he has stepped up his game to the tune of a 35 DK point average over his last four games. He doesn't have the highest ceiling in the world, but he can certainly provide safe, reliable value at this price tag. If he continues his recent form, he can easily exceed 40 DK points against the Clippers tonight. You can even bring it back with a near-minimum salaried Serge Ibaka on the other side - the veteran put up 22.5 DK points over 29 minutes last game and the Kings rank dead-last in fantasy points per game allowed to C's.
Others to consider: Serge Ibaka ($3,600), Dewayne Dedmon ($3,700), LaMarcus Aldridge ($5,600)
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