RADIO
We have 10 games on tap tonight and I'm not sure I've ever seen an NBA slate with more value available. There are a ton of studs out tonight, including LaMelo Ball, Damian Lillard, Ja Morant, Devin Booker, Bam Adebayo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Terry Rozier, and more. The PHI/CHA and ATL/MIN matchups stand out as the top games to target, but there are plenty of others in the mix and that should make for a nice distribution of rostership across the board. Let's get to it.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings on 12/6/21. You can also check out today's FanDuel lineup picks. Remember to monitor injury news as the slate can completely change before lineups lock.
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DraftKings Overview - NBA DFS Matchups
This is how the games, teams, and positional matchups shake out for tonight's slate. "K-Rate" is a metric that includes implied totals, projected pace, fantasy points against, and defensive ratings. The higher the number - the more attackable the game/opponent is for DFS purposes.
DraftKings Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Chris Paul - PG, PHO vs. SAS ($8,300)
CP3 has had two straight "down" games as he failed to crack 36 DK points against the Warriors and Pistons, but we can't let recency bias influence our decisions too much. The veteran is too intriguing to pass up at this price and in this matchup. Booker will be inactive again, and Paul's rates see a nice bump to a 22.1% usage rate and 1.24 FPTS/min with him off the floor this season. This is the type of matchup where Paul's all-around game should translate into a useful DFS day as the Spurs have allowed the third-most FPPG to PG's and allow the most rebounds per game to the position.
Seth Curry - SG, PHI vs. CHA ($5,300)
Curry is in an incredible spot to provide value at his mid-range salary. He has exceeded what he'd need for 5x tonight in four of his last five games. He's shooting 43% from 3PT on about five attempts per game for the year, and he's 10-for-20 (50%) from long-range over the last 10 days. The Hornets are very short-handed tonight as they'll be without Ball and Rozier, and they were already one of the top teams to target SG's against prior to their absences. They allow the second-most FPPG to opposing SG's on the season, and the crucial factor here is that they're allowing the most three-pointers made per game to the position.
Cody Martin - SG/SF, CHA vs. PHI ($3,900)
There's plenty of value all over the place for tonight's slate, but it will (obviously) be key to pick and choose the right value as a bomb will tank your DFS lineup. [Note: Ish Smith is a great value play as well]. Cody Martin has stepped up with the injuries to Ball and Rozier, highlighted by a 37.5 DK points night over 32 minutes in his last game. His salary inexplicably dropped a full thousand dollars since then, which means we can easily target him in what sets up as the top game environment on the slate. He's averaging 1.13 FPTS/min with Ball, Rozier, Plumlee, and McDaniels off the floor this season, which is the best mark on the entire team.
Others to consider: Ish Smith ($3,400), Cameron Payne ($4,100), Dennis Smith Jr. ($5,300), Ty Jerome ($3,800), Chris Duarte ($4,700)
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DraftKings Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Kelly Oubre Jr. - SG/SF, CHA vs. PHI ($5,800)
There might be a little sticker shock going on with Oubre's price tag almost hitting $6,000, but it's fully justified. He has been playing really well recently, going for at least 31.75 DK points in each of his last five games played. He doesn't contribute much in the non-scoring categories, but he's taking, and making, enough shots to continue to be a valuable DFS piece at his price. He holds a solid 24.4% usage rate (leading the team) and a 1.09 FPTs/min rate with Ball, Rozier, Plumlee, and McDaniels off the floor this season.
Derrick Jones Jr. - SF/PF, CHI vs. DEN ($3,600)
DJJ, mostly known for his incredible dunking skills, is on the DFS radar tonight due to his uptick in minutes and near-minimum pricing. He put up just 23 DK points over 33 minutes last time out against the Nets, and while that output isn't amazing, it's well over what we'd need out of him for 5x value tonight. He's projecting for about 28 minutes against the Nuggets tonight and while it's not a great matchup overall, we simply can't ignore the value on a slate like this.
Cam Reddish - SG/SF, ATL vs. MIN ($3,200)
Reddish is questionable for this game as he's attempting to come back from a non-COVID illness. If he's active, it's reasonable to expect that he walks into a heavy amount of minutes as the Hawks are still without Bogdanovic and Hunter. Reddish holds a 0.85 FPTS/min rate on the year, so projecting him for just 26 minutes gives him a 22.1 DK point projection - well over the 16 DK points he needs to hit 5x value tonight. Add in the fact that the Wolves are forgiving to opposing SF's (eighth-most FPPG to SF's on the season, fourth-most FPPG to SF's over the last seven games) and Reddish has a shot at obliterating his price tag tonight.
Others to consider: Anthony Edwards ($8,100), Miles Bridges ($7,700), Jerami Grant ($7,600), Josh Giddey ($6,800), P.J. Washington ($5,700)
DraftKings Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Joel Embiid - C, PHI vs. CHA ($11,000)
Giannis and Curry both have serious risk of a blowout cutting their minutes short, so who else is left to pay up for on this slate? I'm loving the idea of getting to Embiid as a core piece tonight as his recent form and extremely appealing matchup set him up for a big night. He has exceeded 55 DK points in four of his last five games, which includes a 70.5 DK point outing against the weak frontcourt defense of the Timberwolves on 11/27. He gets another very soft matchup here tonight as the Hornets are allowing the sixth-most FPPG to opposing C's on the season and rank dead-last in the same category over the last seven games. They'll also be without big men Plumlee and McDaniels, so it'll fall on P.J. Washington and a host of others to guard the superstar. Advantage = Embiid.
Others to consider: Isaiah Stewart ($5,500), Deandre Ayton ($7,400), Jakob Poeltl ($6,000)
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