RADIO
You know the NBA is in an odd state of affairs when players like Chimezie Metu, Maxi Kleber, and Kessler Edwards are projected to be among the higher-rostered players on the slate. Five of the top 11 players, in terms of salary on DraftKings, have already been ruled out for tonight. Instead of meticulously trying to comb through the myriad of injury and "health and safety protocols" issues in play, just be sure to check out our NBA Injury Roundup as well as NBA Player News for updated information. The chaotic nature of the league right now has seemed to increase the challenge of NBA DFS - for example, Jrue Holiday was in a smash spot last night as he was set to take on the Cavaliers without Middleton, Giannis, and Portis active. At the last moment, the Bucks announced that Holiday would be active but that he's "getting a breather." *insert table-flipping gif here* Simply put, you shouldn't be playing NBA DFS right now if you're not planning on staying glued to your phone to make late swaps throughout the night. Let's dig into this, shall we?
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 12/19/21. Remember to monitor injury news as the slate can completely change before lineups lock.
As always, feel free to follow my Twitter (@RING_DFS) - I post about a variety of things but mainly NBA DFS with my K-Rate and Positional K-Rate model.
Guards - DraftKings, FanDuel NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Tyrese Haliburton - PG/SG, SAC vs. SAS ($6,900 DK & $7,700 FD)
We have to make a conscious effort to find the best spots to take advantage of this rash of "health and safety protocols" issues. One of them appears to be in Sacramento, where all of De'Aaron Fox, Marvin Bagley III, Terence Davis, Alex Len, Davion Mitchell, and Louis King will be inactive tonight. There isn't significant data with the tiny sample size we get when filtering for all of those players off the floor, but you can bet that Haliburton will see increase usage and fantasy points-per-minute production with the team's other top-three guards out of the picture. He went for 47 DK points last time out and 42 DK points before that - expect a similar range of outcomes tonight in what profiles as a top-tier matchup against the Spurs. San Antonio is allowing the fifth-most FPPG to opposing PG's this season.
Desmond Bane - PG/SG, MEM vs. POR ($6,100 DK, $6,400 FD)
This is just a really affordable price on a player who has been crushing it lately. Bane has met or exceeded his value-based salary for tonight in seven of his last 10 games, and he exceeded 39 DK points in four of those games. He's a clear third on the team in usage rate (24%) with Morant and Clarke off the floor, and his per-minute rate sees a small bump to 1.08 FPTS/min in such scenarios. The price is right, the form is on point, and the matchup is attackable as the Trail Blazers have allowed the sixth-most FPPG to opposing SG's over their last 15 games.
FanDuel play: Kyle Lowry - PG, MIA vs. DET ($7,400)
Others to consider: Jalen Brunson ($7,100 DK, $7,000 FD), Alex Caruso ($5,200 DK, $5,500 FD), Killian Hayes ($3,500 DK)
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Forwards DraftKings, FanDuel NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Jaren Jackson Jr. - PF/C, MEM vs. POR ($6,600 DK, $6,700 FD)
Triple-J comes in as the second recommendation from the Grizzlies tonight. He holds a surprisingly-low price point on both sites considering his 40+ FPTS upside on any given night, and his 30.9% usage rate and 1.24 FPTS/min rate (sans Morant and Clarke) both look quite tasty going up against the Trail Blazers tonight. The Blazers have been really tough against opposing PF's this season and JJJ's one down game in his recent stretch came against this squad on 12/15, but he's too good and this situation is too prime to pass him up at this cheap salary.
Chimezie Metu - PF, SAC vs. SAS ($4,800 DK, $6,000 FD)
While he's much more appealing at his egregious DraftKings price, Metu can also be deployed as a center-only option over on FanDuel with how everything is set up for tonight's slate. The Kings have been decimated by inactives recently, and Metu holds a solid 21.5% usage rate and 1.05 FPTS/min when filtering for Len, Fox, and Bagley off the floor this season. He averaging 1.23 FPTS/min over his last two games, though, as he has stepped up as a de-facto focal point in the frontcourt with so many regulars missing. The Spurs are allowing the fourth-most FPPG to opposing centers this season and they've allowed the second-most rebounds per game to the position over their last seven games. Metu has brought down 24 boards over his last three games - he's a great value tonight.
Note: Metu should be viewed as more of a GPP tournament value play if Richaun Holmes is ultimately ruled in tonight.
FanDuel play: Saddiq Bey - SF, DET vs. MIA ($4,900 FD)
Others to consider: Maxi Kleber ($3,700 DK, $4,700 FD), Cam Reddish ($3,400 DK), Devin Vassell ($4,100 DK)
Centers - DraftKings, FanDuel NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Karl-Anthony Towns - C, MIN vs. DAL ($9,600 DK, $9,900 FD)
It's going to be tough to get away from selecting Jokic against the extremely shorthanded Nets frontcourt, but I'm going to make the case for Towns at a cheaper price point. He needs 48 DK points to hit 5x value at his current salary, and he put up 56 and 51.5 DK points in his last two games (vs. LAL, @DEN). He's averaging a solid 45.4 DK points for the season and has shown a monster 60+ FPTS ceiling, so we know he has a bankable floor and upside for tournaments. What makes KAT really intriguing tonight, though, is that the Wolves will still be without Anthony Edwards and Taurean Prince. Towns is averaging an eye-popping 34.1% usage rate and 1.77 FPTS/min with those two off the floor this season. Putting those numbers into context: Doncic ranks first in the league with a 35.7% usage rate, while Jokic leads the league with a 1.73 FPTS/min rate. Last but not least, the matchup against the Mavericks is advantageous for KAT as Dallas is allowing the eighth-most FPPG to opposing C's this season.
DeAndre Jordan - C, LAL vs. CHI ($3,000 DK, $4,000 FD)
I'd stay away from him on FanDuel, but Jordan is the flat minimum over on DraftKings and he'll have to play at least 20 minutes with both Anthony Davis and Dwight Howard already being ruled out. Jordan isn't going to hog usage or take a ton of shots, but he's averaging 1.10 FPTS/min this season and that mark sees a small jump to 1.15 FPTS/min with both AD and Howard off the floor. The Bulls rank middle-of-the-pack against opposing centers, but have slipped to the bottom-10 over their last seven (and last 15) games played. Jordan is a great value piece tonight as he only needs about 15 DK points to hit 5x value here.
Others to consider: Jaren Jackson Jr. ($6,700 DK, $6,400 FD), Jakob Poeltl ($6,300 DK, $6,800 FD)
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