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Welcome, RotoBallers; hope everyone had a great holiday. There are seven games on the schedule for the NBA DFS slate tonight, kicking off with three games starting at 5:00 CT. The Grizzlies-Kings matchup profiles as the top game to target as it has the highest implied total and fastest projected pace, but with COVID and injury situations decimating the league, there are viable plays everywhere. Let's get to it.
Instead of meticulously trying to comb through the rest of the myriad of injury and "health and safety protocols" issues in play, just be sure to check out our NBA Injury Roundup as well as NBA Player News for updated information.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 12/26/21. Remember to monitor injury news as the slate can completely change before lineups lock.
As always, feel free to follow my Twitter (@RING_DFS) - I post about a variety of things but mainly NBA DFS with my K-Rate and Positional K-Rate model.
Guards - DraftKings, FanDuel NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Spencer Dinwiddie - PG, WAS vs. PHI ($6,500 DK, $4,600 FD)
Dinwiddie is priced incorrectly for his role with Bradley Beal out of the lineup, especially over on FanDuel where he's a full $1,900 less than DraftKings. He had been struggling to produce with Beal on the floor this season, but he flashed his early-season form with 51.4 FD points over 35 minutes on 12/23 with the star on the sideline. He's averaging a solid 25.5% usage rate and 1.10 FPTS/min without Beal this season. While Philly has maintained their status as one of the top guard defenses in the NBA even without Ben Simmons, this is too great of an opportunity to pass up at his affordable price.
De'Anthony Melton - PG/SG, MEM vs. SAC ($5,100 DK, $6,100 FD)
Memphis guards have the top positional matchup on the entire slate, so it's likely that at least one of Morant, Melton, or Bane will exceed their salary-based value tonight against the Kings. Sacramento is allowing the most FPPG to PG's and the second-most FPPG to SG's this season. They're allowing a ton of points to the guard positions, which is great news for a scoring-centric player like Melton. He contributes a lot of "stocks" as he's averaging 2.4 steals+blocks per game this season and has 18 over his last six games, but his ceiling DFS games come when he scores double-digit points. He went for 37.25 DK points in his last game - with Morant in the lineup - and he scored 20 points to help make that happen. A repeat performance could definitely be in the cards tonight against the vulnerable (and depleted) Kings' backcourt.
Tyrese Haliburton - PG/SG, SAC vs. MEM ($8,700 DK, $8,200 FD)
The second-year pro has officially entered "pay-up option" territory, but he's still a great option tonight. He needs 43.5 DK points to hit 5x value, and he's notched between 47 and 54 DK points in each of his last four games. He has taken on the brunt of the scoring and playmaking load as he's averaging 23.5 points, 11.25 assists, and two steals per game during that four-game stretch. Unsurprisingly, he's also leading the team with a 24.7% usage rate and 1.20 FPTS/min since 12/17. The Grizzlies have been pretty solid against opposing PG's and SG's this season, but they're allowing the 12th-most FPPG to opposing PG's over their last seven games and the Kings rate out as having the sixth-best combined guard matchup on the entire slate. The game has the highest implied total by a mile (226 points) and projects to be the fastest-paced, so getting to the best player on the Kings is a wise strategy tonight. Buddy Hield is also an option at a slightly cheaper salary, but I'd only really want to get significant exposure to him if Fox is ruled out.
Note: De'Aaron Fox is questionable to return from the health and safety protocols, but even if he is active it seems very likely that he'll be on a minutes limit. If he's in, Haliburton becomes more of a tournament play as opposed to a core play.
Others to consider: Caris LeVert (if Brogdon sits), Tremont Waters ($3,000 DK, $3,500 FD), Derrick Walton Jr. ($3,000 DK), Frank Jackson ($4,800 DK, $4,100 FD), Svi Mykhailiuk ($4,600 DK, $3,500 FD), Eric Bledsoe ($5,800 DK, $5,400 FD), Yuta Watanabe ($4,400 DK, $4,400 FD)
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Forwards DraftKings, FanDuel NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Brandon Ingram - SG/SF, NOP vs. OKC ($9,800 DK, $8,700 FD)
Ingram projects as a much better play on FanDuel thanks to his cheaper pricing over there, but Ingram has a great shot to provide value on both sites with the matchup he has on tap tonight. First off, the Thunder are allowing the most FPPG to opposing SF's this season, so the matchup literally couldn't get any better than the one he's faced with tonight. Second, Ingram projects to see a nice step up in usage (30.1% to 33.9%) and FPTS/min (1.13 to 1.15) with both Valanciunas and Alexander-Walker already ruled out. This is projecting to be the lowest-scoring game on the slate, so while it's not one that I'd want to get a lot of exposure to, Ingram looks very appealing as he could have a monster night with the way everything is set up for him.
Keldon Johnson - SF/PF, SAS vs. DET ($5,800 DK, $6,300 FD)
Johnson may not project as a great points-per-dollar play tonight, but I really like him as a potentially low-rostered option at the forward positions (especially on DraftKings). Johnson has been at or near 6x value on DraftKings in each of his last four games and he notched three double-doubles in that span. The Spurs come in as the third-best team to target tonight in my model as the Pistons don't play much defense and they allow the eighth-most FPPG on the season overall. Additionally, they're allowing the third-most FPPG to opposing SF's, which is Johnson's true position.
Others to consider: Chris Boucher ($5,800 DK, $5,000 FD), Saddiq Bey ($7,500 DK, $5,600 FD), Josh Hart ($7,000 DK , $6,900 FD), Hamidou Diallo ($5,600 DK, $4,800 FD), Dalano Banton ($3,200 DK, $3,500 FD), Lauri Markkanen ($5,600 DK, $4,900 FD)
Centers - DraftKings, FanDuel NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Nikola Jokic - C, DEN vs. LAC ($3,600 DK, $3,500 FD)
Jokic is still priced in the cost-prohibitive range, but he's really right where he should be when you consider his recent and season-long form. He needs 60.5 DK points and 56 FD points to hit 5x value on DraftKings and Fanduel, respectively - he has exceeded 5x value on DraftKings in seven of his last 10 games and pulled the same feat on FanDuel in six of his last 10 games. The more important note here is that he's (arguably) the only player on the slate who's capable of hitting at least 70 DK points, which he has pulled off three times over his last eight contests. The Clippers have been pretty strong against centers this season, but it's really difficult to imagine Jokic feeling any resistance defensively against the combination of Zubac, Batum, and Ibaka. Raw points matter quite a bit when there's as much value as there is on every slate these days, so making Jokic a core piece and fitting mispriced studs (i.e Ingram, Dinwiddie) around a bunch of value is a great strategy to employ.
Willy Hernangoez - C, NOP vs. OKC ($4,900 DK, $4,600 FD)
Hernangomez is a spectacular value play tonight at under $5k on both sites. He received a whopping 32 minutes last game with Valanciunas out and he put up a weird, but useful 3/16/1 line (24.5 DK points) against the Magic. JoVal is out again tonight, and Hernangomez gets another prime matchup against a Thunder team that's allowing the 11th-most FPPG to centers this season. You can make a case that the Thunder allowing the third-most FPPG to opposing PF's also comes into play with Hernangomez's style of play. What makes this even more intriguing, though, is that he sees a 2.5% spike to a 22.5% usage rate with both Valanciunas and Alexander-Walker off the floor this season. He's averaging 1.24 FPTS/min on the season and should see somewhere around 30 minutes again tonight, making him a top-tier value option on this slate.
Others to consider: Luka Garza ($3,000 DK, $3,500 FD), D.J. Wilson ($3,000 DK, $3,500 FD), Serge Ibaka ($3,400 DK, $3,800 FD), Cheick Diallo ($3,000 DK, $3,500 FD)
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