Dynasty Baseball Risers and Fallers - Pitchers

Now that we are about one-third of the way into the 2021 MLB season, it would be prudent to revisit the dynasty rankings and identify the biggest risers and fallers.

I previously went through every offensive position to find hitters on the rise and fall. This time, we'll focus on starting pitchers.

To determine this list, I compared my preseason dynasty rankings to those updated in mid-May, which can be found on our Premium Dynasty Rankings page as well as FantasyPros' expert consensus.

Risers

Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers

How can the top pitching prospect in MLB from the 2020 season be considered a riser? After his seven-game sample that resulted in a 6.99 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and expected slash line allowed of .294/.403/.549 that ranked in the bottom fifth percentile across the board, it was bound to knock him down a peg. The way he started this season wasn't much better and it looked like Mize might fall further behind other young hurlers. Then May arrived and he transformed into a different player.

In his sole June start, Mize tossed another quality start by lasting seven innings and allowing three runs to a potent White Sox lineup, whiffing six without walking a batter. In his last four outings, Mize has a 26-4 K-BB rate with no walks in the last two starts. Mize has asserted himself as the top rookie SP and might rank among the best in the game by season's end.

Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox

An IL stint has put a pause on what has been a brilliant season so far. Kopech ranks among the league leaders in every expected stat and boasts a 36% K%.

Fortunately, his injury is a mild hamstring strain and nothing to do with his surgically-repaired elbow. Once he returns, the only limitation on his fantasy value might be the innings limit put on him. Kopech has spot-started three times totaling 12 innings and is mainly living out of the bullpen. Next year, we could see him unleashed. Although he's been rising all season, his arrow continues to point up.

Trevor Rogers, Miami Marlins

The Marlins' rotation was being hyped by our staff in preseason predictions repeatedly. That doesn't even include the biggest Marlins fans of all, namely this author. The rookie who was at the forefront of the hype was Sixto Sanchez but he hasn't toed the rubber yet in 2021 due to injury. The most overlooked part of this young rotation, Trevor Rogers, has suddenly become its ace. Rogers was just named NL Rookie of the Month for May after earning the honors in April already. He's been dominant, allowing one or zero earned runs in eight of his 11 starts while holding a 30.5% K%. The time to add Rogers was in the preseason before the secret was out but those who already roster him should make no plans to sell high.

Ryan Weathers, San Diego Padres

Slightly less portly than his father, the younger Weathers is posting far slimmer ratios. David Weathers only held an ERA under 3.00 in two of his 19 Major League seasons, but Ryan Weathers currently sports a 2.06 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Holding a spot in the Padres' rotation also keeps him at the forefront of fantasy managers' attention. It should be noted that he is far outperforming Xstats as of now. His .285 xBA and his 5.29 xERA is more than double his actual ERA. The low strikeout numbers make him overly reliant on maintaining those sparkly ratios, so proceed with caution.

Adbert Alzolay, Chicago Cubs

One of the biggest jumps has come from Alzolay, who went from erratic to pinpoint control in a matter of months. His first two samples of the big leagues were marred by a 15% walk rate. Now, he is among the best in the game with a 5.2% BB% accompanied by a 27.2% K%. As a two-pitch specialist who relies on his fastball-slider combo, Alzolay may need to enhance his changeup in order to keep batters off balance. Then again, it's working pretty well for Freddy Peralta.

Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays

Do you like a lefty who averages 97 on his fastball and 90 on his slider pitching in the spacious Tropicana Dome? That used to describe Blake Snell, although his four-seamer only gets up to 95 and the slide piece is about 87. Not talking about Brendan McKay either. McClanahan has earned a coveted spot in the Rays' rotation and didn't take long to open some eyes.

Shane McClanahan, Unfair 101mph Fastball Movement. ? pic.twitter.com/QblvS2qcR0

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 29, 2021

Based on his extreme velocity and prior injuries, there is a legitimate question about how long he'll last as a starter. Not like the Rays are known for stretching their starters very far anyway.

James Kaprielian, Oakland A's

It's only a four-game sample size but Kaprielian is showing the stuff that made him a first-round pick and top Yankees prospect. Injuries wiped out his 2017 & 2018 seasons but he has climbed up to the top level with Oakland and has impressed. In his first three starts, Kaprielian gave up 10 hits and three runs over 17 2/3 innings. The Mariners got to him in the second of back-to-back outings for four ER in 3 2/3 frames but it doesn't discount what he's shown.

Jackson Kowar, Kansas City Royals

You don't have to squint too hard to see a scenario in which KC has the best young pitching staff in the AL. Between Brady Singer, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch, Alec Marsh, Asa Lacy, and Kowar, they are loaded with arm talent. Lynch got the recent hype based on his May call-up but was sent down after taking two losses in three short, disastrous starts. Kowar now lurks after dominating in Triple-A East with an 0.85 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 41 K in 31 2/3 IP. At age 24, the same as Lynch, he could rightfully claim the now-vacant rotation spot left by Lynch and Danny Duffy (forearm) while he remains on IL. This is the time to make a claim in dynasty leagues if he's available.

Braxton Garrett, Miami Marlins

A former first-round pick of the Marlins, he's off to a strong start in Triple-A Jacksonville with a 3-1 record, 3.28 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 24-7 K-BB in five starts. He made a three-inning relief appearance for the big club early on but may be needed as a starter now that Elieser Hernandez has gone back to the IL and Sixto Sanchez is unlikely to pitch any time soon. Fellow prospects Nick Neidert and Cody Poteet are also injured. Garrett's strikeout numbers have been low throughout the minors so the appeal here is centered on ratios, especially in a pitcher-friendly park. Zach Pop is another interesting name to watch in Miami too.

Fallers

Matt Manning, Detroit Tigers

It looks like Casey Mize is on the verge of breaking out and Tarik Skubal is making progress but Manning is going the opposite direction. In six starts at Toledo, he's allowed 27 runs, 36 hits, and 11 home runs in 26 1/3 innings. That has led to a league-worst 9.23 ERA. Manning was more highly-touted than Skubal coming through the minors but their paths are clearly diverging.

Triston McKenzie, Cleveland Indians

The 23-year-old has been the epitome of an inconsistent rookie starter with extreme highs and lows, no in-between. Just try to make sense of his Statcast profile:

He's giving up a ton of hard contact although only four homers have been hit against him. He's inducing a ton of whiffs but walking just as many batters. His .205 xBA is excellent but his ratios are atrocious. Cleveland definitely has a knack for developing pitchers so this could be the time to consider buying low on him while he sorts out his control issues.

Nate Pearson, Toronto Blue Jays

The top young pitcher north of the border and No. 10 in MLB's Top 100 for 2021, Pearson has struggled across a brief stint in the majors and Triple-A Buffalo with a 7.24 ERA. Injuries have come into play as he's battled a shoulder impingement and abductor strain throughout spring. His short-term value has taken a hit but his ceiling remains sky-high. Pearson doesn't fall too far down the rankings but based on the fact he was expected to be a major factor by now, his value takes a hit.

German Marquez, Colorado Rockies

Few hurlers in the Mile High City can attract, much less maintain the interest of fantasy managers. In 2020, Marquez posted a sub-4.00 ERA for the second time in three seasons and a WHIP below 1.26 each time. Entering his age-26 season, Marquez has taken a step back instead of forward, though. His 4.13 ERA and 1.39 WHIP aren't helping fantasy teams and he hasn't overcome Coors Field. In the past three seasons, Marquez has been markedly better on the road but this season he's been worse on the road too mainly due to a rising walk rate.

The brief 2020 season teased a higher ceiling for a pitcher entering his prime but we may have already seen that ceiling.

Justus Sheffield, Seattle Mariners

Sheffield's strong end to 2020 was more than encouraging after a stretch in which he allowed two ER or less in seven of his final eight starts. Any progress he made last year by posting a 3.58 ERA has been erased by an erratic 2021 in which all his expected stats rank below the 15th percentile. He was already ratio-dependent because of a low K-rate but even that has dropped down to 17.1%, making him unrosterable.

Griffin Canning, Los Angeles Angels

Such high hopes for a breakout, such bad results instead. Canning has a 5.82 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with a walk rate that has climbed for the third straight season. Is he lost or is there something else at play?

Catcher Kurt Suzuki’s Yearly Strike Rate (via Baseball Savant)

2017: 53rd/62
2018: 35th/60
2019: 51st/64
2020: 60th/62
2021: 50th/57

Dylan Bundy ERA 6.49 / SIERA 3.91
Andrew Heaney 5.24 / 3.59
Griffin Canning 5.40 / 4.12
Mike Mayers 5.11 / 3.29
Raisel Iglesias 4.29 / 2.01

?

— Kev Mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) June 1, 2021

Even with Max Stassi back behind the plate, Canning was ineffective in his most recent start, failing to make it out of the fourth inning before allowing four runs. The strikeouts are there but Canning is still tinkering with his pitch mix and clearly needs more time before he can be trusted.

Dean Kremer, Baltimore Orioles

Kremer opened some eyes in his debut by limiting each of his first three opponents to one run and striking out 20 batters in his first 16 innings. His fourth and final outing of 2020 may have been a harbinger of what was to come, unfortunately. He was tagged for seven runs by Boston (last year's version, mind you) and hasn't been the same since. Kremer's 2021 ERA actually sits right near seven (6.87 over 38 innings) and he's only registered one quality start in nine attempts. Like many O's pitchers, the long ball has been a big culprit; Kremer has coughed up 11 HR. It's too early to give up completely on him but he doesn't need to be rostered right now.

Joey Lucchesi, New York Mets

This section might also be called "Death of the churve." Lucchesi is still making batters look foolish with his unique curveball but opponents are hitting his sinker at a .286 clip and his 5.79 ERA is unpalatable. Lucchesi has shown some good underlying metrics like a low .223 xBA, 18% line drive rate, and 3.71 SIERA along with an improving 25.4% K% so there has been some bad luck. Still, it appears Lucchesi won't be stretched far enough to even be a reliable rotation piece as he hasn't even lasted five full innings this season.

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