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Don't get caught sleeping at the midseason curve, as bye weeks, injuries, and breakouts yield several paths to victory. Alongside our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Budget (FAB). In case you were not aware, several fantasy sports platforms are switching from FAAB to FAB in 2020, and RotoBaller will make that change as well.
As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override.
Week 7 took down key names in Odell Beckham Jr., Chris Carson, Kenyan Drake, Deebo Samuel, among others. And now we must absorb Arizona, Houston, Jacksonville, and Washington going on bye. Without further ado, here are my median FAB bid ranges and adds heading into Week 8, with Yahoo rostership rates from Monday night.
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FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks
While Teddy Bridgewater (44% rostered) is above our cutoff, his upcoming home matchup with Atlanta demands highlighting. Spring for up to 5% of your FAB if needing a stream.
Derek Carr (QB, LV) - FAB Bid: 1-2%
29% rostered
Carr lost by 25 to Tom Brady and the Bucs on Sunday, but he still completed 24-of-36 passes for 284 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. This makes for five consecutive games with multiple TD passes as Carr gets comfortable with this generation of Raider receivers. While Las Vegas has improved, their defense is still subpar and will demand a lot from the offense. Week 8’s date with the Browns could be a quiet shootout considering early Vegas lines have set the O/U at 54.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA) - FAB Bid: 1-2%
29% rostered
The Dolphins have officially made the switch from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Tagovailoa. While the timing is a bit odd considering Fitzmagic’s strong recent play, there’s no doubting Tua is their future. The 2018 Heisman runner-up had a career 69.3% completion rate over three years at Alabama, alongside a pristine 87-to-11 TD:INT ratio.
With solid weapons in DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, Myles Gaskin, and Preston Williams around him, Tagovailoa should have a chance at several top-16 weeks this year. Stepping right into a date with Aaron Donald’s Rams isn’t ideal, but should give us an idea of his learning curve and what to expect. I’d stash him if you haven’t already, especially since a flashy rook makes for a great trade chip to antsy teams.
Philip Rivers (QB, IND) - FAB Bid: 1-2%
16% rostered
Rivers and the Colts march off of their bye into a dome matchup with the Lions, giving Rivers high-end QB2 streaming potential. The veteran slinger just threw for a season-high 371 yards and three TDs prior to the bye after struggling to gel with receivers and timing early. While he’s yet to establish a connection with T.Y. Hilton, he showed great TD throws to Marcus Johnson and Zach Pascal in Week 6. This is for those needing reinforcements since it’s unlikely many held Rivers through the bye.
FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs
Carlos Hyde (RB, SEA) - FAB Bid: 12-15%*
9% rostered
Hyde performed well in a Week 7 win after Chris Carson was forced out early due to a foot injury. An MRI on Monday revealed a midfoot sprain and he's considered week-to-week, meaning Hyde should have at least one or two solid useful games for us. You don't have to love him but the volume on a Russell Wilson-led offense is worth adding for a (revenge game) showdown with San Francisco in Week 8. Given the high-scoring potential that Seattle carries each week, you’ll want what pieces you can get -- even if it’s just 12-15 touches.
*Hyde is apparently dealing with hamstring tightness. Look at DeeJay Dallas if truly desperate considering Travis Homer also suffered a knee contusion.
Pete Carroll said Carlos Hyde has some hamstring tightness he's dealing with. Running back depth could be an issue this week.
— John Boyle (@johnpboyle) October 26, 2020
La'Mical Perine (RB, NYJ) - FAB Bid: 6-8%
16% rostered
Perine tallied 55 total yards and a score on 13 touches in Week 7, rewarding Adam Gase (ugh) for the additional work. While his 11-39-1 rushing line wasn’t as strong as Frank Gore’s (11-60-0), it’s clear that Perine deserves more work. The Jets offense is naturally capped by its own ineptitude (only 20 points in the last three weeks) but Week 8’s match with Kansas City should call for Perine’s swiftness and versatility rather than Gore’s bruising runs. Those in need of a long-term play should aim for Perine versus these other rentals.
JaMycal Hasty (RB, SF) - FAB Bid: 6-8%
20% rostered
One week after turning nine carries into 37 yards, he turned another nine totes into 57 yards (and added a 16-yard catch to the log). This blurb would’ve been about Jeff Wilson Jr. but his three-TD day was cut short by an ankle injury, so now Hasty is the next man up. Jerick McKinnon remains invisible as Kyle Shanahan indicated he overworked McKinnon earlier and was concerned about fatigue.
Tevin Coleman has an outside shot at returning in Week 8 but certainly wouldn’t be used a lot and Raheem Mostert remains out. If it’s Hasty, McKinnon, and Kyle Juszczyk as a rotation against Seattle then I’d expect 15-18 touches for Hasty in what should be a high-powered game.
Wayne Gallman Jr. (RB, NYG) - FAB Bid: 2-4%
2% rostered
I hesitate to write this because even if Devonta Freeman misses Week 8 with his ankle injury, Gallman and the Giants are up against Tampa Bay’s elite run defense. The Bucs haven’t allowed a rusher to top 60 yards against them so far, with no one breaking even 35 yards against them since Christian McCaffrey’s 59 in Week 2. If you think Gallman can break them with a lulled sense of false security then go for it, but we’d be hoping for receiving work to carry his day. However, I recognize that RB touches/volume is the currency of our game and some simply need reinforcements. Just tread carefully.
FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers
Sterling Shepard (WR, NYG) - FAB Bid: 10-12%
29% rostered
The New York Giants needed a spark and Shepard's return provided it:
Sterling Shepard is BACK ?
Giants go up 21-10
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/jARALQcNpA
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 23, 2020
With injuries ravaging the squad and Jason Garrett refusing to utilize Evan Engram beyond the sticks, Shepard could be Big Blue's lightning rod. He caught six of his eight targets for 59 yards and a score in the Week 7 return. Week 8 against Tampa Bay's secondary is far from ideal, but then Week 9 (at WAS) and Week 10 (vs. PHI) are solid plays before the Week 11 bye.
Corey Davis (WR, TEN) - FAB Bid: 7-8%
28% rostered
Davis stuck the landing in his return from the reserve/COVID-19 list on Sunday, putting up a solid 6-35-1 line on 10 targets against Pittsburgh. He’s now tallied at least 69 yards or a score in each of his four games thus far, proving that he’s worth playing even when A.J. Brown is healthy. Simply put, Tennessee’s offense is potent enough to support him while their defense is weak enough to create healthy gamescripts. While next week against Cincinnati yields another good matchup, a tough four-week stretch (CHI, IND, at BAL, at IND) looms.
Rashard Higgins (WR, CLE) - FAB Bid: 5-7%
1% rostered
Higgins caught all six of his targets for 110 yards as he rose to the occasion with Odell Beckham Jr. leaving Sunday’s game early. He should rise up alongside a banged-up Jarvis Landry to be one of Baker Mayfield’s starting wideouts as Donovan Peoples-Jones gets his chance to work in. The Browns will go through their running backs and boast a deep TE stable, but Higgins should get plenty of chances to run routes and make plays.
Nelson Agholor (WR, LV) - FAB Bid: 2-3%
3% rostered
After two straight weeks of scoring a touchdown with little volume, Agholor exploded with five catches for 107 yards and a TD. He saw nine targets after recording just 11 targets combined over his first five games. Tampa Bay did a good job of taking away both Josh Jacobs and Henry Ruggs III, but it’s clear that Agholor deserves some shine. The issue here is that he needs Vegas to fall into holes, as working with Ruggs, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, and Jacobs is a crowd.
FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends
Irv Smith Jr. (TE, MIN) - FAB Bid: 3-5%
7% rostered
Irv Smith Jr. comes off the bye with some momentum after catching 4-of-5 targets in consecutive weeks, with 64 yards in Week 5 and 55 yards (and a two-point conversion) in Week 6. The Week 7 bye clearly left him available in most formats and he should be needed in what should be a high-scoring matchup with Green Bay. Early Vegas lines have a ~55-point over/under total for it -- the highest of the week. With Smith Jr. overtaking Kyle Rudolph, we may have a top-14 TE option come Week 8’s date with the Packers.
What a route by Irv Smith Jr. versus Keanu Neal pic.twitter.com/LdPLf2XXrK
— Nick Olson (@NickOlsonNFL) October 21, 2020
Trey Burton (TE, IND) - FAB Bid: 2-3%
20% rostered
Another potential gem returns from their bye in Burton, who rushed in a one-yard TD as the QB from the Wildcat and then added 4-58-1 as a receiver in Week 6. He’d seen at least five looks in three straight games prior to Indy’s bye, which is partly on Burton’s skill but also Mo Alie-Cox and Jack Doyle had been hurt. Philip Rivers loves having a reliable, athletic TE and Burton could be the guy, but we’ll need to see how much work he gets when he, Jack Doyle, and Alie-Cox are all active.
Richard Rodgers (TE, PHI) - FAB Bid: 1-2%
8% rostered
Rodgers stepped up with both Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert out, hauling in 6-of-8 targets for 85 yards against the Giants on Thursday. With another green-light matchup coming against the Cowboys before their bye, look to Rodgers as a one-week rental. The expectation is that Goedert will return in Week 10 after their break. And you should also check in on Jalen Reagor if you aren't sick of adding Eagles by now!
FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Defense/Special Teams
Tennessee Titans Defense (at CIN) - 27% rostered - FAB Bid: 3-4%
Green Bay Packers Defense (vs. MIN) - 19% - FAB Bid: 1-2%
Denver Broncos Defense (vs LAC) - 23% - FAB Bid: 0-1%
Both the Titans and Packers should have their offenses take the lead, putting Joe Burrow and Kirk Cousins into risk-taking spots that could yield several sacks and turnovers. And then there's the Broncos, who I wouldn't recommend except they're at home. The mile-high advantage could stunt Justin Herbert's rise if Malik Reed and Bradley Chubb can stay hot in pursuit of sacks. It's a thin week for low-rostered defenses without a doubt.
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