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It's NFL Draft night so you know what that means, it'll be another fun night of MLB DFS action! It's an interesting Thursday slate as one pitcher is clearly above everyone else and he also has the best matchup on the slate. Trevor Bauer ($11,000) is a whopping $1,800 more than the next-highest arm, in part because he's facing a pillow-soft matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers. Seriously, have you seen the lineups Milwaukee is rolling out there with Christian Yelich on the IL? Bauer has to feel like the tiger on the day of a gladiator match right now.
Elsewhere, there's not a whole lot. We lost Matthew Boyd and Dylan Cease thanks to their game being PPD on Wednesday giving them a doubleheader, which FanDuel never includes on the main slate. We also lost Freddy Peralta who had his start pushed back to Friday, as if we needed more pitching options for a full slate on Friday. That leaves Kyle Gibson ($9,200), Luke Weaver ($7,500), and a few dart throws as the options to pivot off Bauer. As for bats, the lack of pitching options mean plenty of hitters will be in-play and finding the right combo on a small slate will be key.
I'll be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for the FanDuel main slate on 4/29/2021. Be sure to also check out all the MLB player news, including late scratches, and the projected and confirmed daily MLB lineups for each DFS slate. You can also check out today's DraftKings MLB DFS lineup picks, and read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports too. With that out of the way, let's get t0 my winning picks!
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FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Cash Game/GPP Anchor Play:
Trevor Bauer - LAD at MIL ($11,000)
It has to be Trevor Bauer. It's not an exaggeration to say Bauer will be 100 percent rostered in some small cash games. He'll easily carry 80-90 percent ownership in cash games so you eliminate yourself from contention if he tosses a complete game, or racks up 12 strikeouts, both in play against Milwaukee. The Brewers rank fourth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and are in the bottom-10 in most relevant hitting categories like OPS and wRC+. Bauer is the type of pitcher who could have a field day against this toothless lineup if he has his best stuff. Even if he doesn't, it would be shocking if Bauer doesn't pick up the bonus points for a quality start and a win as the Dodgers are huge Vegas favorites. Don't get cute in cash games, worst-case scenario is Bauer gets blown up and the whole field goes down with you. You can survive rostering Bauer if he's bad, you can't survive fading him if he dominates.
GPP Play
Martin Perez - BOS at TEX ($6,000)
After losing Boyd and Peralta, I can honestly say I may not enter a lineup on FanDuel without Bauer. However, IF fading the superstud, we might as well go the complete opposite direction and roll out $6,000 Martin Perez against the Texas Rangers. The Rangers are better versus lefties than righties, but most of their big bats (Joey Gallo, Nate Lowe, David Dahl) are left-handed so if Perez can avoid the long ball he can provide value at this price. He's lasted five innings in two of his four starts and has a six strikeout game mixed in there. The Rangers are a soft matchup so there's a path to a decent point total which can help take down a GPP if paired with the right high-priced bats.
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FanDuel DFS Infielders
Will Smith - C, LAD at MIL ($3,200)
It's not often we get to incorporate catchers on FanDuel, but on a small slate all options should be explored. Smith rested on Wednesday but blasted a three-run homer in Tuesday's game and has at least nine FD points in four of his last five games. He should start Thursday against LHP Eric Lauer who is a pitcher we can attack. Smith has a 13:12 K:BB this season so his plate discipline has been solid giving him a high floor for a hitter and the game is being played in a strong hitter's park.
Nick Solak - 2B, TEX vs BOS ($2,900)
Solak is getting his chance to start every day for a rebuilding Texas club and the 26-year-old is taking full advantage of it. The former Rays farmhand is scalding the ball this season with a .425 wOBA and a whopping .510 wOBA on contact. He's making hard contact over 40 percent of the time and even has two steals to go with his seven homers and .319 batting average. Solak is too cheap and gets the platoon advantage against the lefty Perez.
Austin Riley - 3B, ATL vs CHC ($3,300)
The Braves have the highest implied run total on the slate making all of their bats usable in a matchup versus Adbert Alzolay. Riley has hits in three straight and had four hits and a homer yesterday. He's cheap and a great way to get exposure to the Braves lineup which we will get into more detail about when we talk outfielders.
Corey Seager - SS, LAD at MIL ($3,900)
On small slates getting leverage over the field is important and one way to do that is with Corey Seager. The LA shortstop is facing a L/L matchup which could keep some managers off Seager even if they play the other Dodgers who will be quite popular. Lauer has shown some reverse-splits in his career with a .377 wOBA allowed to LHB compared to .325 versus RHB. Additionally, Lauer may not last long if the Vegas oddsmakers are to be trusted (and they usually can be) so Seager should see right-handed pitching later in the game. Milwaukee is one of the best parks for lefty batters as well making Seager my favorite batter to play on the evening.
**Bonus**: Dansby Swanson ($2,700) is also a strong play versus Alzolay. Seager is the cover-boy and my dong-call today but on FanDuel we have a UTIL spot and I like putting Swanson in there with this lineup.
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Marcell Ozuna - OF, ATL vs CHC ($2,600)
Ozuna has hits in three-straight and homered last night as he tries to get his batting average back over the Mendoza line. As bad as Ozuna has been, there are signs he is starting to turn things around and we can take advantage of his reduced salary in DFS. His average launch angle and average exit velocity are in line with his career norms so eventually things will turn around for the slugger. Might as well be tonight.
Ronald Acuna Jr. - OF, ATL vs CHC ($4,300)
On small slates, don't be afraid to pay up for the big bats that can carry your team if they go nuts. Acuna certainly fits that description and is easy to fit into FanDuel lineups where the hitter pricing is less spread out than on that other site. He's batting .350 this season with a league-leading eight homers and is sporting an elite 1:1 K:BB. Alzolay isn't a good enough pitcher to scare me off Acuna.
Daulton Varsho - OF, ARI vs COL ($2,000)
Varsho is an intriguing prospect the Diamondbacks just recalled from the alternate training site and I, for one, am ecstatic as I've been sashing the catcher/outfielder on several season-long teams. In his last full season in the minors, Varsho batted .301 with a .520 slugging percentage. Yes, that is aided by playing in the Pacific Coast League, but he also stole 21 bases and posted an 11 percent walk rate which are not aided by the PCL's altitude. He carries the bare minimum price and has the platoon advantage against Antonio Senzatela. As long as he's hitting above sixth he's in my lineup.
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