Time To Sell-High Or Hold? Which Fantasy Baseball Hot Starts Are For Real

It is hard to predict anything in life, and baseball is no exception. Every year, we utilize the information available to project what's going to happen, and as time goes on, we often feel much more confident in those projections.

The problem? Information changes. There are so many moving parts to the game of baseball that are difficult to capture, leading to the overall chaos and unpredictability that makes this sport so great. After all, if this was easy, what would be the fun in that? We're not going to bat 1.000 with our predictions for a given baseball season. What we can do, though, is adjust to new information to better project how the season will turn out.

The ability to adjust on the fly is particularly a significant skill in fantasy baseball. With so many surprises occurring during the season, it is paramount to be able to decipher when to be looking to acquire players, and when to be looking to part ways. With pitchers, we generally get a better idea early, as we can quickly see changes in velocity or in pitch mix. For hitters, though, it is more complicated; it takes about for months for the critical underlying metrics to start to stabilize. Well, we are at that point now, and decisions needs to be made. Today, we will be going over four hitters off to a fast start, deciding whether it's best to hold onto these players, or sell them at their perceived peak value. Which hot starts are legitimate, and which should you be looking to take advantage of?

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Anthony Rizzo, 1B, New York Yankees

Man, it still feels weird to not see Anthony Rizzo on the Cubs. Between 2014 and 2019, he posted a tremendous 141 weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+), a .284/.388/.513 slash line, and was the first key member of the Cubs' famous rebuild that broke their 108-year World Series drought. Clearly, he'd be a Cub for life, right?

Unfortunately, Rizzo's production cratered mightily after the 2019 season. Between 2020 and 2021, he was barely an above-average hitter (109 wRC+), while his .240/.343/.432 slash line didn't stand out at all, especially at first base. Prior to the 2021 season, Chicago supposedly offered Rizzo a four-year, $60 million extension and a five-year, $70 million extension, but after turning it down to bet on himself, it became clear his future was no longer with them. Amidst a trade-deadline teardown that included Kris Bryant (Giants) and Javier Baez (Mets) being shipped to new teams, Rizzo was traded to the Yankees, where he'd have a new number, and honestly, a new identity.

This offseason, New York was rumored to be interested in Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson, who the fans certainly catered too. In the end, though, they appeared to "settle" by signing Rizzo to a two-year, $32 million deal, a move that not the entire fanbase was enthused with. Now, though, general manager Brian Cashman appears to be getting the last laugh.

When a hitter is gearing for power, there are three signs of that being the case:

1. They are pulling the ball more
2. They are hitting more fly balls
3. They usually are whiffing more, trading quantity of contact for better quality of contact

So far this season, Rizzo is setting career-high marks in pull rate (56%), fly-ball rate (33.3%), and whiff rate (24%). In other words, check, check, and check. With a career-high 13.3% barrel rate and a .341 isolated power (ISO), it certainly is paying off for him. You may be worried that, per Baseball Savant, he has three more home runs (9) than expected (6). Yet, this is the type of approach that allows you to overachieve your expected numbers, especially when you play your home games at Yankee Stadium; if he played all of his games there, he would be expected to have nine home runs. For perspective, here are his a spray chart of his batted balls, presented with Yankee Stadium's dimensions:

This is clearly an intentional change by Rizzo, either on his own or assisted by the Yankees' coaching staff, to hit for more power. It's very similar to what we saw Marcus Semien do last season, and is something that should be sustainable. Will he have a .341 ISO for the whole season? No, but with tremendous power and run production, I don't see why he can't finish as a top-five first baseman this season. That's the type of player you'll want to hold onto.

Verdict: Hold

 

Taylor Ward, OF, Los Angeles Angels

News flash: Mike Trout has let to win a postseason game, and hasn't played in one since 2014. Are we just going to sit there and accept that this generation's best player can't ever have the shine on the national spotlight? Hey, maybe that's the real reason MLB keeps expanding the postseason.

Well, a month into the season, the Angels are in first place in the AL West, and have the third-best offense based on wRC+. Why? Well, Trout and Shohei Ohtani finally have some help! Despite starting the season on the injured list with a strained groin and being seen as more of a role player, Taylor Ward was received assurance by manager Joe Maddon that he'd have an everyday role:

Joe Maddon said Taylor Ward is the starting right fielder when he comes back. He’ll be an everyday player.

— Sam Blum (@SamBlum3) April 7, 2022

With playing time being taken away from former top prospect Jo Adell, this was not something that Angels fans, fantasy baseball managers, or just general baseball fans took kindly to. Well, it's a move that looks quite smart now!

Right now, Ward is performing 148% better than the league average, based on his 248 wRC+. I'm sorry, what? Despite missing about two weeks of the season, based on Fangraphs Wins above Replacement (fWAR), he's 0.1 fWAR behind Trout as the most valuable player in the American League! Is this a flash in the pan, or a legitimate breakout? I certainly lean with the latter.

After all, it isn't though Ward is a player who "popped out of nowhere." In 237 plate appearances last year, he certainly flashed offensively, posting a 111 wRC+ with a 10.3% barrel rate. Meanwhile, in the upper levels of the minors between 2018 and 2019, he posted a tremendous 156 wRC+, demonstrating the power and plate discipline (15.1% BB, 20.4% K) be a productive offensive contributor. Now, he's getting his chance to shine, and that's exactly what he's doing.

Whether it's his 15.7% barrel rate, 7.2% swinging-strike rate, or 16.8% chase rate, all of the early indicators that you look for to decipher whether to believe in a breakout or not are there for Ward. Meanwhile, it's practically a given he'll have a double-digit walk rate, leading to him getting on base more often as the leadoff hitter in front of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Thus, you're getting run production, power, a fine batting average, and around eight stolen bases. Yeah, I'll happily buy into that.

Sure, you may get an offer you cannot refuse. That being said, without enough of a sample size of high-end production, it's unlikely that another fantasy manager gives you the capital you need to part with Ward. Every year, a player pops out of the blue to finish as a top-100 player, and this year, Ward appears to be that guy. Make sure to hold onto him on your fantasy teams, and, hopefully, enjoy an Angels postseason run this year!

Verdict: Hold

 

Randal Grichuk, OF, Colorado Rockies

There are a lot of tricky aspects when it comes to projecting the performance of players. However, nothing may be trickier than taking into account how much of a boost players will get when playing in Colorado. Yes, there are studies that have been done to quantify this, but it's really a case-by-case measure; specific players will benefit from the Coors Field effect more than others, based on their contact trajectory.

When the Rockies acquired Randal Grichuk, it was easy to get significantly more excited about his fantasy outlook. After all, he's always been an asset in power, and if playing half his games in Colorado could boost his batting average, he could be a legitimate fantasy asset. Well, so far, so good.

Through the first month of the season, Grichuk boasts a .309/.352/.494 slash line, along with a 130 wRC+. Remember, wRC+ is park-adjusted, so his production isn't just a factor of Coors Field. That being said, I remain skeptical this is something we should expect this to continue.

For starters, Grichuk's 4.9% barrel rate does not align with his current home run/fly ball rate (25%). Not only is his expected home run/fly ball rate more than half of where it currently is, but he's overachieving it more than any other hitter right now. That speaks to notable regression, and since we're at the point where barrel rate starts to stabilize, there is reason to be concerned.

Mainly, it's been a ground-ball problem with Grichuk; currently, he has a 59% ground-ball rate, so while he is hitting 45.9% of his batted balls over 95+ MPH, that doesn't mean much in terms of power. If he hits more fly balls, that's going to impact the batting average, so it's a bit of catch-22; first it giveth, then it taken away. In other words, it is highly unlikely that Grichuk can continue be both an asset in batting average and power. A choice will have to be made, which isn't ideal for fantasy managers.

Of course, Grichuk's .368 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) will also come down. You may think that this, along with his home-run luck, is a matter of playing in Colorado, but he actually has a higher BABIP on the road (.400), while his home run/fly ball (22.2%) has still been very high. Simply with his road numbers getting much worse, his stock will be impacted in a big way.

I'd also be remise if I did not mention who the Rockies have faced this year:

• Dodgers (in Coors)
• Rangers
• Cubs
• Phillies (x2)
• Tigers
• Reds
• Nationals

There are a lot of subpar pitching staffs mixed in there, which has helped spiked the entire Rockies' entire lineup. With more series against the likes of the Dodgers, Giants, and Padres, the whole lineup will take a hit, particularly Grichuk. While you can still sell a fantasy manager on the idea that his numbers can be sustained based on his home ballpark, take advantage of that. You got a great value by drafting him late, and now is the time to get an even better return on that investment.

Verdict: Sell High

 

Alec Bohm, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies

In hindsight, it's interesting to look back at the 2018 MLB draft. Based on prospect pedigree, the top-10 appeared to be rich with talent:

• SP Casey Mize (Tigers)
• C Joey Bart (Giants)
• 3B Alec Bohm (Phillies)
• 2B Nick Madrigal (White S0x)
• 2B Jonathan India (Reds)
• OF Jarred Kelenic (Mets)
• SP Ryan Weathers (Padres)
• OF Travis Swaggerty (Pirates)

The top-six picks are in the majors, but only India, last year's NL Rookie of the Year, has made a notable impact in the big leagues. Fun fact: this draft featured two players who didn't sign, including Kyler Murray, who is doing just fine as the Arizona Cardinals' starting quarterback. Between Logan Gilbert (#14), Shane McClanahan (#31), and top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez (#11), it isn't as though this class didn't produce quality MLB players. However, having another player breakout onto the scene would be a nice boost for this class as a whole.

Could it be Alec Bohm? Coming out of Wichita State, Bohm was seen as a future offensive superstar, which led the Phillies to select him with the #3 overall pick despite some defensive concerns. As expected, he quickly dominated through the minor leagues, and made his MLB debut after just one full season in the minors. At the time, with a 70-grade hit tool and 60-grade raw power out of a 20-80 scale, per Fangraphs, he was seen as a sure bet to be a fixture in the middle of Philadelphia's lineup for years to come.

Alas, with a 138 wRC+ in 180 plate appearances in 2020, Bohm did just that. As you would expect, that boosted his stock tremendously. Prior to the 2021 season, he was a fringe top-120 pick in the NFBC Main Event, per rotoholic.com, which is quite the leap of faith for someone with just 180 career MLB plate appearances.

While there was reason to be excited about Bohm, there was still the matter of his ground-ball tendencies, which always had the potential to limit his game power. Sadly, that is exactly what happened in 2021. With a 52.7% ground-ball rate, he mustered just a 6.6% barrel rate, which translated to a .095 ISO. Add in some strikeout woes (26.6% K), and he posted just a 75 wRC+, even finding himself demoted to the minors during the season. It was about as disastrous of a season for him as you could imagine.

As you'd expect, Bohm's fantasy baseball draft stock dropped dramatically, with him not even being a top-360 pick in the NFBC Main Event. To make matters more complicated, he didn't even get the Opening Day third base start over top prospect Bryson Stott, leading to many to wonder if he'd be a part-time player. Add in the drama from a viral video of him implying he hated playing in Philadelphia, and everything seemed to be heading in the wrong decision.

Now, though, it's almost as if nothing in 2021 or the very beginning of 2022 happened. For the season, Bohm has posted a 128 wRC+, and has worked his way up to the top of the Phillies lineup. Meanwhile, with a .428 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) and .366 expected batting average, it'd seem that his performance was legitimate.

That being said, expected statistics can't be taken on its own. Based on previous research, they have an overall limited amount of predictive power, and tend to be over-trusted in the evaluation of a player. Instead, we should be looking at the other underlying metrics that encompass the expected stats, which will give a better idea of the ability of a player to keep up his hot streak.

Unfortunately, there are a few red flags with Bohm that cannot overlooked. Line drive rate, for instance, tends to be a more unstable metric than you may think; players with extremely high line-drive rates naturally will likely see it regress to the mean eventually, though they have the ability to run high line drives in a small sample. In Bohm's case, he currently boasts a 40% line-drive rate, which is leading to him rating quite highly in Baseball Savant's expected statistics; they tend to very descriptive, even if not predictive.

That'll ding Bohm's 8.3% barrel rate; three of his five barrels have been on line drive this season, in addition to the expected batting average. The same will go with an increase in strikeout rate, which appears likely. After all, his 12.9% swinging-strike rate is actually higher than it was last year (11.7%), and doesn't align with his current 16% strikeout rate. With the batting average taking a hit, you'll need more power, but with fewer line drives and similar ground-ball problems, I wouldn't expect that to be the case.

Many use Baseball Savant's expected statistics to identify when to buy-low/high on a player. Instead, I am recommending selling high on a player whose expected statistics will be likely used as a predictive metric, even if that isn't how they should be used. Before the strikeout rate and quality of contact get impacted negatively, now is the time to sell high. Don't sell him for pennies on the dollar - he's still a very young player in a talented lineup - but there is value to be had right now.

Verdict: Sell High

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