Fantasy Baseball Insider Report: Shortened Season Alters Strategies

The award-winning Fantasy Baseball Insider Series continues on RotoBaller, this time with in-depth takes on the shortened season from a former MLB executive and current broadcaster. Every year, Scott Engel talks to prime MLB sources to get exclusive nuggets of information. On the condition of anonymity, former and current players, executives, scouts, media members and others close to the game provide their unfiltered insights on key players and situations, and Scott supplies his fantasy baseball viewpoints on the commentaries.

These reports contain viewpoints that you will not find anywhere else, from the most authentic experts on the game: those who play it, have played it, and cover it and work inside the clubhouses. The sources interviewed are all informed that they are being asked questions for fantasy purposes, so they focus on projected player performance and trends that will drive statistical production in their answers.

This latest installment of the Insider Series features comprehensive insights from a former MLB front office man and current analyst who is also a fantasy baseball player with championship credentials. He focuses on how the projected shortened 2020 MLB season may affect player projections and fantasy strategies. The outlooks he discusses can cover any length of a reduced schedule, but he emphasized they become more urgent in a 50-game scenario.

Insider Insights On a Shortened Season Affecting Fantasy

"It’s going to be a smaller sample size so once we figure out who is getting hot early you will have to stick with those guys a little longer. As for the reverse, those who usually start slow don’t panic over a full and long season. Those guys might now tend to press more. Slow starters are usually good buy candidates but not in a shortened season. If someone starts slow this season now, there is less time to rebound. It is so important to get off to a good start this season. And benching injured players to stash them is something you can’t really consider."

Engel’s Fantasy Angle: In a shortened season, hot and cold spells will be magnified. There is much less time to wait out cold streaks and injuries. If you know some players are notoriously slow starters, those are hitters you may want to pass on in tight draft decisions. Streaky hitters will become bigger gambles; if they start hot, you will get a boost in the standings, but a cold start could be a big drag. As this insider source indicated, those types may press at the plate and struggle even longer.

It's hard enough to fall behind early in a full season Rotisserie league and catch up, now it will seem impossible to win if you are down deep in the standings early. In head-to-head formats, every win becomes more precious and fantasy baseball results can take on a football type of feel. You may have to react to trends and injuries more aggressively with add/drops, a there will be much less consideration and thought for players who will miss several weeks with an injury.

The ideal player to avoid in a shortened season is Giancarlo Stanton. In his breakdown of players who have been known to go cold at the beginning of the schedule, RotoBaller's Mike Florio notes that Stanton has a .231 BA and .251 ISO in March and April. On top of that, Stanton is recovering from yet another injury (calf) and is always a risk to go down and miss significant time.

Giancarlo Stanton's career splits for the beginning of the season. While the power is still there, he has struggled in BA and OBP. You cannot rely on power performers that may go cold early in a shortened season. 

Insider Insights on Rookie Contributions

“We will have to watch carefully who is projected to start the season with the MLB clubs and who may be projected to come up during the season. If there are players who are considered to be helpful now, they will start the season with the big club right away. Jo Adell is very important to the Angels, so I would expect him to start the season with the team right away. Dylan Carlson may be a year off a breakout pace, so I would expect him to see him up with the Cardinals very soon because he is a top prospect.”

Engel’s Fantasy Angle: We will likely be looking at expanded rosters for the shortened season, ensuring that some rookies will begin seasons on MLB rosters in cases where they might often begin the year in the minors. Teams must make firm decisions on if they believe the rookies can help from the start or in a shorter window. Adell should be expected to begin the season on the Angels roster. As pointed out in my last MLB Insider report, he has a very low ADP and the potential to contribute in the power and speed departments rather quickly. Adell did struggle at Triple-A last year, however, and if he starts slowly, you can’t wait too long to bench him. We will have detailed scouting reports on Carlson and Carter Kieboom from this insider in our next edition.

Insider Insights on the DH for National League Teams

“It will certainly affect National League pitchers, no doubt. You are still going to go for the dominant N.L. pitchers in fantasy drafts, but there will not be much of an advantage over A.L. pitchers at all. A lot of N.L. teams are still not built for the DH anyway. Most won’t have one option. They may rotate some hitters. But for the Nationals, Howie Kendrick would not project to play five or six days per week and now he can get more playing time. The DH spot should be ideal for Yoenis Cespedes. Going back to Dylan Carlson, there would not seem to be a clear spot for him in the Cardinals outfield. Now the DH plays a role there. The Braves can use Marcell Ozuna at DH, especially coming off a shoulder injury, and that should open up some more at-bats for Nick Markakis. Joc Pederson should now be in the lineup nearly every day for the Dodgers.”

Engel’s Fantasy Angle: When you are faced with a close draft decision between a National League pitcher and an American Leaguer, the league designation no longer gives the N.L. choice the advantage. You must also consider the strong possibility that NL teams will now play AL ballclubs with revised divisional alignments. I may now be more moved to take Corey Kluber over Trevor Bauer. Both are rebound candidates, but before the DH and divisional realignments, I may have opted for Bauer based on playing in the NL. However, Bauer plays in a surefire hitter’s environment while we have yet to see how the new Globe Life Park will play. I have heard, though, from a current player, that Kluber was looking like he had regained his better form in spring training before it was shut down, and that will be my tiebreaker, not the league designation.

You will have to cherry-pick the National League DH options that are possible contributors, but Yoenis Cespedes could be a major value play. You will see in this recent Insider Report that Cespedes was impressing onlookers in early spring training. I was told that the Mets were planning to bring him along slowly and let him loose in the second half of the year in what could be a big comeback campaign. Now they can potentially let him contribute right away, and he looks like a great flier at his 463 ADP. He is totally being ignored in drafts and that may be a mistake.

Kendrick now becomes more appealing at his low ADP after hitting .344 with 17 homers last year and proving he's still an offensive factor at age 36. Kendrick also led MLB in xBA (.336), was fourth in xSLG (.622), and his 48.2% Hard Hit% was in the Top-8 percent of the league. He should be penciled into the seventh spot in the Washington lineup but should still produce very good numbers, particularly considering his draft price. Markakis won’t help much in other than BA but could help Ozuna get some more rest at DH. Pederson seemed ticketed for a platoon role in LF with the Dodgers, but the DH opportunity could mean more consistent playing time overall and keep him as a valued fantasy power source if he starts off well. He is definitely worth the later flier at a 211 ADP.

Per Baseball Savant, Howie Kendrick ranked in the Top 9 percent or better in all of the above Statcast categories last season. 

Fantasy Insider Insights on Pitching vs. Hitting

“Results will heavily depend on how deep starters are allowed to go. You are going to see many teams go to their bullpens more. Teams with better bullpens are going to have a distinct advantage. The dominant starters should perform as expected, but when you go down to the tiers of third and fourth starters for many teams, you will have to watch those guys carefully. It’s never easy to chase wins for starters and now it will be more difficult than usual. You should keep a few middle relievers on your bench, because they are going to steal a good amount of wins. With those third and fourth starters, they may go three to four innings before teams go to a good middle reliever.”

“Pitchers should be ahead of the hitters early. I was talking to (a veteran hitting coach) and he believes pitchers will focus on high-end velocity and breaking balls right out of the gate. I would stay away from high strikeout guys. Contact hitters will go into slumps less frequently and have much less variability. I want guys like Anthony Rendon and Michael Brantley. They are less likely to slump, and the high strikeout types can crush you out of the gate quickly in a shortened season. It’s going to be much harder to be patient in fantasy leagues.”

Engel’s Fantasy Angle: You may want to change your later-round approaches to pitching based on the advice given here. Instead of throwing those darts at strictly late-round starting pitcher fliers and closer longshots who may not have the time to emerge, you can bolster your staff with some quality middle relievers. Luke Jackson of Atlanta will add to your strikeout totals (25.4% K-BB% in 2019) and he had a 2.80 SIERA last year while collecting 11 wins. Seth Lugo had a 28.0% K-BB% and 2.80 SIERA and also had seven wins. He is capable of being more productive in wins on a consistent basis in a shortened season.

When making early-round decisions on your anchor offensive players, you should take contact hitters over power types with high strikeout types when you have a close call. For example, if trying to make a decision between Rendon and Bryce Harper, the latter’s 26.1% K-rate should give the nod to Rendon.  Once again, avoiding a player such as Stanton makes a lot of sense. Save your riskier power picks for later in the draft. Streakier types will be less predictable as for whether they will start out hot or cold, and if they struggle early, you may have to bench them.

More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice