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It was another crazy week! Auburn lost for the first time in 65 games since 2004 when leading by 25 or more points. Mississippi State overcame the largest deficit in program history. UConn and New Mexico State both took early leads on Clemson and Alabama respectively.....and never scored again. UMass got blown out by FCS Maine. Slumming isn't always all it's cracked up to be.
Oklahoma lost for the first time in 24 November games since 2014. Baylor is 4-23 against the Sooners now since the Big 12 formed in 1996. Despite all this craziness, none of it could top the evening games. We saw the biggest upset maybe of the past decade. Texas lost AT HOME to Kansas. Not Kansas State. Not Arkansas. KANSAS. Not to be outdone, the reeling Florida defense allowed a school record 42 points in the first half to something called a Samford.
I skipped the USC-Cal game that got rescheduled. All 60 of the games I picked played. I think this may have been another rough week. Before we get to that, let's get started on a positive note with the Friday picks. There are five Friday games this week!
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CFB Betting Picks 11/19:
Southern Mississippi at Louisiana Tech(-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high. The Eagles only threw seven passes last week, and not a one of them was by a quarterback. They've reverted to the option and were content to let Frank Gore, Jr. throw three passes. Hey, he was better than any of the quarterbacks this year. With the Golden Eagles turning into a ball-control offense and the Bulldogs being a run-first team, I don't think they get enough possessions to cover by three scores. Give me Southern Miss.
Memphis at (24)Houston(-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This seems like a pretty fair spread. I also feel like Houston is rolling right now and they cover this.
Arizona at Washington State(-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is another one that feels a touch high. Washington State played a solid game against Oregon. Arizona is finally staying competitive. The next step is to do it in a road environment. I'm not going to bet this because Arizona is always one play away from the game snowballing and getting out of control. I'll take Wazzu and lower the bet.
Air Force at Nevada(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Is the Air Force defense as good as San Diego State and San Jose State? I don't know about that. Cole Turner will be back, which will help take some of the pressure off of Carson Strong. I'll take Nevada in Reno.
(19)San Diego State(-10.5) at UNLV
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Rebels win streak is going to stop at two. They can't stop the run, so it really doesn't matter if the Aztecs can't throw. UNLV isn't just going to roll over and let them have it, but the Aztecs backfield will eventually wear the Rebels down. Give me SDSU.
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CFB Betting Picks Week 11 Results:
I promised transparency this year, and you will get it, warts and all. I feel like I had a really bad week. I put most of my allotment this week on Michigan. I didn't hit anything else really hard. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Here are the results from week 11. I picked 60 games and all 60 played. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Buffalo at Miami(OH)(-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'll go ahead and just say it now: Brett Gabbert is a better college quarterback than his older brother. Whether or not he sticks in the NFL for a while like his brother remains to be seen, but Gabbert is improving by leaps and bounds over the last month or so, as are the Redhawks.
Akron at Western Michigan(-26.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Zach Gibson has helped turn the Zips around. They aren't just busting spreads. The Zips are nearly winning against teams favored by multiple touchdowns. We'll see how Vegas adjusts this week because we know they will.
Ohio at Eastern Michigan(-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ben Bryant is a beast. The Eastern Michigan defense is not.
Toledo(-10.5) at Bowling Green: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew better. Betting the Falcons (or Toledo, for that matter) is the betting equivalent of Russian Roulette....
Ball State(-2.5) at Northern Illinois: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a very entertaining game. Ball State is a strong team, but there's something about this Northern Illinois squad. Jay Ducker has been quite a find and Rocky Lombardi just seems to fit here where he didn't with Michigan State.
Kent State at Central Michigan(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Once again, Kent starts fast. Once again, they blow a sizeable lead. The difference was that they did it in the second quarter here, not the third. I guess that means they are getting worse earlier in games. That has to be a concern for Kent. They're fun to watch when they're going well, but when it inevitably falls apart, it's an ugly sight.
North Carolina at (25)Pittsburgh(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Pitt blew a sizeable lead to make me sweat this one. I was happy with the 23-7 halftime advantage.
(5)Cincinnati(-23.5) at South Florida: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It took a strong second half for USF not to get covered, but I'll take it.
Wyoming at Boise State(-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should have had this one, but then Boise had to go and let the Cowboys score with a minute left. Boise never felt like they were running off with this game until the fourth quarter, but it was still a surprisingly average game for the offense.
New Mexico State at (2)Alabama(-50.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It's not often that any team covers a 50-point spread. The Tide actually trailed 3-0 in this game. They rattled off 49 first half points and really let up in the second half. This was a game of padding the stats for Bryce Young's Heisman run.
(6)Michigan(-1.5) at Penn State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The Penn State defense played a pretty strong game, but a late flurry against the Michigan defense almost busted me. If Michigan can limit the mistakes as they have against everyone but Little Brother, they have a strong chance this year.
(8)Oklahoma(-5.5) at (13)Baylor: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I can't even be upset about this. There were no controversial calls. No controversial plays. Not even a lot of mistakes on our end. We just got outplayed. Baylor showed up and played a great defensive game. I was disappointed in Oklahoma's inability to stop the run –particularly the quarterback run – but that's something that has plagued the Sooners for the last 25 years. Michael Bishop, Ell Roberson, Brad Smith, Eric Crouch, Vince Young......the list goes on and on. I could add another 20 names to that list, but you get the idea. It was a well played game on all fronts by Baylor. They earned this win.
Mississippi State at (17)Auburn(-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The SEC is slowly getting Leached. This was a great comeback by the Bulldogs. I mentioned it in the opening. Another six touchdowns for Will Rogers, which sets the school record. Just another day at the office. If the Heisman voters were truly concerned about giving it to the best player, Rogers would be high up on that list.
Northwestern at (18)Wisconsin(-24.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If you're surprised by this, you haven't been paying attention. Braelon Allen has added a new dimension to the Badgers and that defense was never the problem. This isn't a team anyone wants to face right now. Everything hurts worse when you get run over in sub-zero temperatures.....
Connecticut at Clemson(-40.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
UConn ran the opening kickoff back for a touchdown and that was it. The offense was awful against a Clemson defense that is still very good. The Clemson offense came up just short. We did see Taisun Phommachanh here. Too bad Tyler couldn't have played too!
Syracuse at Louisville(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Where did that Louisville defense come from? Also, where was the Syracuse defense? Did the teams switch uniforms before the game or something? That's the only thing to explain this.
Rutgers at Indiana(-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I guess Indiana doesn't know how to win anymore. The loss of Michael Penix Jr. hurt, but the schedule broke this team. They don't have anything left right now.
West Virginia at Kansas State(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I think the most impressive part of this win for K-State was the job the defense did on Leddie Brown. Of course, when you don't have to worry about the passing game it frees you up to stack against the run. The Wildcats did it very well.
Central Florida at SMU(-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Well, the Knights were able to keep up for a quarter. I didn't think that Ulysses Bentley IV was that big of a part of the team for SMU, but he clearly is.
East Carolina at Memphis(-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I've been waiting to see something like this from ECU for a while now. This wasn't Holton Ahlers' doing. This was the ECU defense, as strange as that sounds. The Pirates are now bowl eligible and could be a tough out for someone in the last week of December.
Houston(-24.5) at Temple: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Houston won by 29, and it didn't feel like the game was that close.
(24)Utah(-24.5) at Arizona: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Arizona did lose, but they fought hard in this one. They haven't done that in about a month. I still don't think Utah played that bad of a game. Arizona might have finally turned the corner a bit. Just a little.
Western Kentucky(-18.5) at Rice: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Bailey Zappe threw for 482 yards and five touchdowns......again. The only surprising part of this game was that Jerreth Sterns wasn't the leading receiver for the Hilltoppers this time. It was Mitchell Tinsley. As if the Hilltoppers need another offensive weapon....
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina(-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
You can't pin this loss on Bryce Carpenter. The CCU offense still looked pretty good. It was the defense that didn't hold up their end of the bargain.
South Alabama at Appalachian State(-22.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Desmond Trotter to Jalen Tolbert still works, but Appalachian State still had their way with the Jaguars. They melted the clock and didn't give up big plays on defense.
Georgia Southern at Texas State(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
So much for the Texas State at home motif.....
(1)Georgia(-20.5) at Tennessee: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Tennessee held up for about a third of the game, I guess....
(19)Purdue at (4)Ohio State(-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a statement by Ohio State. They blew the doors off of Purdue in the first half, making sure that they weren't next to get sniped by the Boilermakers.
Minnesota at (20)Iowa(-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a spirited effort by Minnesota. Alex Padilla wasn't all that efficient, but he threw for over 200 yards and two touchdowns. That's something Spencer Petras rarely does.
Southern Mississippi at (23)UTSA(-32.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The streak is still intact, but the Roadrunners had to work for this one. This might be the best game that Southern Miss has played all year.
Charlotte at Louisiana Tech(-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Chris Reynolds threw for 448 and two touchdowns and it still wasn't enough. The Charlotte defense was carved up like the Thanksgiving turkey by Marcus Williams Jr.
Florida International at Middle Tennessee State(-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I expected a nice game from MTSU. I didn't expect half a hundred, but I'll sure take it!
Florida Atlantic(-6.5) at Old Dominion: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
What got into Old Dominion? The Monarchs now have four wins. Nevermind that two are against FCS schools. The defense put on quite a show here to delay the bowl eligibility of Florida Atlantic for at least one more week.
UAB at Marshall(-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The more I watch DeWayne McBride, the more I like his running style. This isn't the UAB team we were expecting in August, but they have played well for much of the year and the defense is better than advertised.
Miami(FL)(-2.5) at Florida State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Miami couldn't get out of their own way in this one. Tyler Van Dyke had another strong game, but too many turnovers hurt the Hurricanes. Believe it or not, the team that lost to Jacksonville State is still alive for a bowl berth.
Boston College at Georgia Tech(-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Phil Jurkovec only threw 20 times all game, but he racked up 310 yards on just 13 completions. The Yellow Jackets defense was torched in this one. Zay Flowers is so much better with Jurkovec back in the lineup.
Duke at Virginia Tech(-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't know that Duke actually has it in them to fire David Cutcliffe, but something needs to change. They aren't even competitive anymore. Braxton Burmeister completed a full third of his passes (and a fifth of his attempts) for touchdowns.
Iowa State(-10.5) at Texas Tech: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Once again, Iowa State keeps tripping over themselves against teams with a losing record in the conference. This was a well played game by Texas Tech, culminating in a 62-yard field goal as time expired by Jonathan Garibay. The Red Raiders are bowl bound and they have next year's coach in town already. The turnaround is already starting.
Louisiana(-6.5) at Troy: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I should have known better. The Cajuns have only lost one game all season even though they are struggling against the spread.
Maryland at (7)Michigan State(-12.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Maryland can feel good about Taulia Tagovailoa throwing for 350 yards again, but the defense got run over by Kenneth Walker III and Jayden Reed.
South Carolina at Missouri(EVEN): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I underestimated how bad Florida's defense is. Tyler Badie took it to the Gamecocks, which overshadowed anything South Carolina was able to do offensively. It was a solid start for Jason Brown, so there's hope on the horizon, especially if the Gamecocks make a bowl and get the extra month of practice.
UTEP at North Texas(EVEN): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was an entertaining game, at least. The thing that shocked me most is that North Texas held a team to 17 points. That's 31 points allowed in the last two games combined for the Mean Green. That's a welcome sight considering how poorly the defense played early on.
Tulsa(-2.5) at Tulane: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
After all this time and missed field goals, I don't know why teams sit on the ball when they've got a sure field goal. You should still be trying to score or at the very least, improve your field position. It bit Tulane this time with a missed chip shot as time expired and a turnover in overtime. Tulsa won, and they probably shouldn't have.
Hawaii(-3.5) at UNLV: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
And just like that, UNLV has a winning streak! Charles Williams was an absolute beast, running for a staggering 266 yards on 38 carries and scoring three touchdowns.
Arkansas State at Louisiana-Monroe(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Layne Hatcher went nuts on the Warhawks with 444 yards passing. Arkansas State finally got that elusive Sun Belt win.....when I finally pick against them....
Stanford at Oregon State(-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That's what I get for picking Stanford.....
(11)Texas A&M(-2.5) at (15)Mississippi: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I wish I hadn't watched A&M against Auburn. I would have picked Ole Miss.
Kentucky(-21.5) at Vanderbilt: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Unfortunately, Kentucky let off the gas on offense when they were up 28 points at halftime.
Arizona State(-5.5) at Washington: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, what a roller coaster over the last couple minutes of this game. The return for a touchdown that made it all but certain Washington was getting covered. The swift drive down the field to get back that spread win. It sure was nice to not have to sweat the two-point conversion.
Air Force(-2.5) at Colorado State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't know why I continue to believe in the Rams. It says something when Air Force has the longest passing play in school history against you. It says something that you really don't want to be associated with....
New Mexico at Fresno State(-24.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The spread was the only thing that made this game interesting. It was everything Fresno could do to cover it.
(9)Notre Dame(-5.5) at Virginia: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have raised this bet when Brennan Armstrong was ruled out. Virginia had no chance. I wish they would have let Keytaon Thompson try to run the offense for a while. It's not like the Irish ran off and hid from them....
(16)North Carolina State at (12)Wake Forest(-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
As expected, this was one of the most entertaining games on a day full of them. The 87 total points I thought was a bit low, but the over still hit. It was the spread that nipped me.
(25)Arkansas(-2.5) at LSU: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
As per usual, the Battle for the Boot was an entertaining one. Is this LSU defense something to be believed in? That's going to make it hard to pick them for the last few weeks.
Kansas at Texas(-30.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
You may want to check on any friends you have in Texas. This is the kind of loss that gets coaches fired. I figured Lance Leipold was close to having Kansas pull an upset, but leading by 21 at halftime in Austin? That's next-level failure by Texas. Casey Thompson's six touchdowns completed a hell of a comeback, but Kansas went for two and the win in overtime and got it. I'm not ready to say that Kansas is good yet, but they finally have some tangible proof of improvement. Leipold was the right hire.
TCU at (10)Oklahoma State(-11.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have known better. Now that the Cowboys are healthy, this offense is a force and the defense might be the best in the conference. Now all they have to do is win Bedlam......twice.
Colorado at UCLA(-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Colorado looks a lot better than they did a month ago. UCLA had their hands full for the first 40 minutes of this game. It's a long road back for the Buffs, but there are plenty of good takeaways from this.
Washington State at (3)Oregon(-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I had a feeling that half might be bad for business.....
Nevada at (22)San Diego State(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
You don't expect to lose by a half on a 2.5 bet, but so it goes. This was a tough-fought game, as it should have been. It was a strong game by Carson Strong in the losing effort, but the San Diego State defense made enough plays when they needed to.
Utah State at San Jose State(-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was a statement for the Aggies on both sides of the ball. Not bad for spotting the Spartans 14 with some bad offensive plays in the first quarter. This defense is better than advertised.
College Football Betting Season Results:
This was an average week, which isn't surprising considering most of my bets were average. I hammered the Michigan moneyline to make sure I came out ahead on my actual bets. I was sub-.500 on here again, but just barely. I was 29-31. That puts me at 292-301 on the season. I'm running out of time to get back to 50%, and my goal of 55% seems a ways off now. Hopefully I at least got some money in my bank this week.
Now it's time to tally up the points. The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 5-7 (46-65) = -19
2. 12-14 (114-121) = -14
3. 10-8 (96-65) = 93
4. 1-2 (21-32) = -44
5. 1-0 (15-18) = -15
I gained a whopping one point this week. My continued success in the mid range makes up for the wayward fours. I am still up 29 points total over four and a half seasons. We have another big week this week with 62 total games this week. Cal seems to be good to go, so hopefully all 62 play.
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