RADIO
We've got a monster Saturday coming up with 51 FBS vs. FBS games this week. This is a bit bittersweet since I will be heading back home by the time these games kick off. It was a much-needed week of R&R, but I'm forced to return to a place where it's 50 degrees colder. Maybe winning some money will make me feel better.
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year.
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
All things considered, last week could have been much worse. It's time to get back on track this week. Let's do this!
New Mexico State at (2)Alabama(-50.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is no better than picking against a FCS school. Give me Bama, but they might get bored. There's no way I would touch this mess.
(6)Michigan(-1.5) at Penn State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Really? This isn't even a night game! Sean Clifford is playing well lately, but Michigan doesn't even have to pretend to try and stop the run. This gets ugly. Michigan by a lot! They've got a couple of weeks before the choke job.
(8)Oklahoma(-5.5) at (13)Baylor
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Baylor got caught napping in Fort Worth last week. If this weren't in November and weren't the week after a bye for the Sooners, I would be a little more leery about this. I'll take Oklahoma for anything under a touchdown. It is November, after all.
Mississippi State at (17)Auburn(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Bulldogs have been losing, but they have been losing close games. I'll say that continues. Give me the Bulldogs. I don't know that they win, but I'll say they keep it within three or four points.
Northwestern at (18)Wisconsin(-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wisconsin is destroying all comers of late and Iowa pulled away late against the Wildcats. Andrew Marty has made the Wildcats better, but that defense just isn't good enough to hang around in this one. It feels a touch high, but I can't bring myself to take Northwestern so I'll just lower the bet.
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Connecticut at Clemson(-40.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Ugh.....no. No one should have to be subject to this garbage. Give me Clemson, but you couldn't pay me to bet this. If it were Taisun vs. Tyler, then you have my attention. Now? I'm going out of my way to make sure I don't watch this.
Syracuse at Louisville(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Well, this is interesting. The Syracuse offense has looked a lot better than Louisville of late. Malik Cunningham is their offense. Until he gets some help, the Cardinals slide continues. Give me the Orange.
Rutgers at Indiana(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Does Indiana know how to win anymore? Their only FBS win this season was a nail-biter over Western Kentucky back on September 25. I'll say they get back on track here. Rutgers has fallen apart after a solid start. I don't see that ending anytime soon. Give me Indiana.
West Virginia at Kansas State(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Kansas State defense is going to be a problem for West Virginia, especially on the road. I'll take the Wildcats at home.
Central Florida at SMU(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Knights haven't had to play a solid team in a while now. They aren't as good as they have played lately. I'm taking SMU.
East Carolina at Memphis(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm a little surprised to see the line dropping like it is. ECU is a solid team, but that defense worries me. Memphis still has some big weapons on offense. I'll take Memphis.
Houston(-24.5) at Temple
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't care for the half, but it shouldn't matter. Temple is bottom-five material. Houston rolls!
(24)Utah(-24.5) at Arizona
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Sorry, Arizona. Back to your losing ways you go. Give me the Utes.
Western Kentucky(-18.5) at Rice
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Rice is improving, but not this much. The Bailey Zappe record-setting campaign rolls on. Give me WKU.
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Even with Grayson McCall out, this feels a little low. Bryce Carpenter had a solid game in relief last week. That should continue. Give me CCU.
South Alabama at Appalachian State(-22.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't care for this line, but the Jags struggled with Desmond Trotter under center earlier this year. I'll take Appalachian State.
Georgia Southern at Texas State(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Are the Eagles worse than the Warhawks? Doubtful. Can the Bobcats be trusted? Maybe. At home? Much more likely. Give me Texas State.
(1)Georgia(-20.5) at Tennessee
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The line is dropping since this is becoming a trendy game to pick against Georgia. I don't know of anyone that actually thinks the Vols will win, but many think they'll hang around. I'm not so sure. It is seriously tough to move the ball on this Georgia defense. That said, it was against Kentucky too and the Vols gave them fits all night. What the hell, I'm in! Give me Tennessee to not get covered.
(19)Purdue at (4)Ohio State(-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Too many. I'm not going to say that Purdue knocks off another top five team. They wont since they're ranked. The magic only works when they're unranked. However, I think the game stays within about two touchdowns. I'll take Purdue.
Minnesota at (20)Iowa(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels a little low with how poorly Minnesota played last week. The only thing the Gophers can do is run. That is the one part of Iowa's team that still looks good. Give me the Hawkeyes.
Southern Mississippi at (23)UTSA(-32.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, that's a ton of points. I'm not picking against UTSA though! The win streak rolls on!
Charlotte at Louisiana Tech(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I really don't like that half, especially if Austin Kendall is still out. Give me Charlotte.
Florida International at Middle Tennessee State(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This looks a little low against a team that just lost to Old Dominion. I'll take MTSU.
Florida Atlantic(-6.5) at Old Dominion
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
So Old Dominion is good now? Not quite. I'll take FAU here. This feels pretty low.
UAB at Marshall(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I still like UAB outright. Marshall has the talent to win this, but they don't always play like it.
Miami(FL)(-2.5) at Florida State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Even if Jordan Travis plays, this is too low. I'm a believer in Tyler Van Dyke leading this offense. Miami has a lot of weapons that weren't realized with D'Eriq King in there. Give me Miami.
Boston College at Georgia Tech(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
With Phil Jurkovec back? I have a hard time believing that. I'll take BC outright. That defense still played well the whole time Jurkovec was out.
Duke at Virginia Tech(-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This still feels low. Duke is spiraling out of control. I'll take the Hokies.
Iowa State(-10.5) at Texas Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is going to be a huge game for Breece Hall. Maybe for Xavier Hutchinson as well. A Cyclone hitting Texas is nothing new. Give me ISU.
Louisiana(-6.5) at Troy
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I just don't know if I can trust the Cajuns right now, especially on the road. I'll take Troy, but I'm not touching this one.
Maryland at (7)Michigan State(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low. The Maryland defense can't stop anyone and the Spartans have a whole lot of guys that can hurt them. Give me Michigan State.
South Carolina at Missouri(EVEN)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Missouri still can't stop the run and Kevin Harris is still the best player on the South Carolina team. Gamecocks roll!
UTEP at North Texas(EVEN)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is all over the place. UTEP is favored. No, North Texas is favored. Look, I don't know what to do with this either. When you look at the whole body of work, I can argue that UTEP has been better. They are more balanced on offense and the defense is better. I'm taking the Miners.
Tulsa(-2.5) at Tulane
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I do believe Tulsa to be the better team. They hung with Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, and Ohio State. This feels low. I'll take Tulsa
Hawaii(-3.5) at UNLV
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Never trust Hawaii on the mainland, especially in Vegas. Give me UNLV straight up! Why not get them a winning streak?
Arkansas State at Louisiana-Monroe(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I feel pretty confident that the Red Wolves are just as bad on the road as at home. Give me the Warhawks.
Stanford at Oregon State(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know about this. The Beavers have had a rough go of it lately. Yeah, this feels high. I'm going Stanford here. I don't think they win, but this should stay within ten points.
(11)Texas A&M(-2.5) at (15)Mississippi
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Aggies are playing as well as they have at any point this season. Still, can they win if they have to throw to do it? Ole Miss is going to test that. I'll take A&M, but I have no confidence in it.
Kentucky(-21.5) at Vanderbilt
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is kind of high, even for a scrimmage. Still, Kentucky has a lot of talent on that offense. They get to show it off here. Give me the Wildcats.
Arizona State(-5.5) at Washington
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't think I trust this. Arizona State didn't play any better last week. In fact, one could argue that if USC weren't so concerned with switching quarterbacks that they may have won this outright. I'm taking Washington.
Air Force(-2.5) at Colorado State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Rams losing outright to Wyoming has soured bettors on them again. I don't disagree. Air Force is going to control the clock in this one, but the Rams are fine playing an ugly game. I'll still take Colorado State at home.
New Mexico at Fresno State(-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line is as high as you would have to be to actually bet this. I don't like the half, but I can't take the Lobos. Give me Fresno.
(9)Notre Dame(-5.5) at Virginia
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels low. The Virginia defense can make even the most struggling of offenses look great. Give me the Irish.
(16)North Carolina State at (12)Wake Forest(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm still on the fence about this one. The Wake offense is a blast to watch and they're very good. However, the defense is as bad as the offense is good. I'm taking the Wolfpack.
(25)Arkansas(-2.5) at LSU
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
LSU played their game of the season against the Tide. I'll take the Piggies.
Kansas at Texas(-30.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm done with Kansas. Give me Texas.
TCU at (10)Oklahoma State(-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Chandler Morris isn't going to do to the Cowboys what he did to Baylor. Not on the road. Still, this feels a tad high. The Toadies played very well without Gary Patterson last week. I don't think they win, but they keep it closer than this. Give me TCU.
Colorado at UCLA(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Now to your regularly scheduled programming of Colorado being bad. Give me UCLA.
Washington State at (3)Oregon(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This still feels a little high. The Wazzu defense isn't quite as good as their in-state rival, but the offense is better suited to hang around with the Ducks. Give me Wazzu.
Nevada at (22)San Diego State(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Considering how San Jose State's defense shut down Carson Strong last week, I do like the chances of the Aztecs here. Not a lot, but enough to push the bet in their favor.
Utah State at San Jose State(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't know about this one. Logan Bonner is rolling right now and the Utah State defense has improved. I'm taking the Aggies here.
I went light at the top with just one max bet and only three four-point bets. The 12 ones are less than last week and the 26 two-point bets is a little higher than normal. I went heavy with 18 three-pointers here. Those have been by far my best picks on the season, so I'm trying to make money in that tier.
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