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Baseball is back! I don't know about you, but getting through a day with any MLB action was unbearable yesterday. Well, good thing we don't have to worry about that for a while!
Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Thursday, July 21, 2022, for the 6-game 1:10 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!
Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. With a very limited slate headlined by a few double-headers, the action is much more condensed today, but there are still some games to keep a close eye on. What sides/totals should you have your eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!
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MLB Betting Projection Model Results
*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Giants @ Dodgers
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: LAD -161
SF: Carlos Rodon | LAD: Mitch White
What better way to start of the second half than with one of, if not the best rivalry in baseball? We may not being seeing a repeat of last year where both teams won 106+ games, but nevertheless, this game is shaping up to be a doozy. In fact, it may go in a very unexpected manner.
Although the Giants lost a lot of postseason ground with a rough stretch from late June to early July, things are tending up for them. San Francisco has won seven of their last nine games, including against two postseason-caliber teams in the Padres and Brewers. Meanwhile, they rank in the top-ten in weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) over the past 30 days, and for the season still slot in 8th in run differential (51). Needless to say, despite past struggles, this isn't a team to gloss over.
That's particularly true when considering who they have on the mound. Per Fangraphs, only Sandy Alcantara has been worth more wins above replacement (fWAR) than Carlos Rodon, who also ranks near the top of the league in strikeout rate (30.8%), K-BB (22.6%), and skill interactive ERA (3.15). Sure, the Dodgers may have a fearsome lineup, yet they still only rank 11th in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers, which makes sense for a lineup with four everyday left-handed hitting starters.
On the other hand, due to Clayton Kershaw and Tony Gonsolin pitching in the All-Star game, Los Angeles will turn to Mitch White, who has shown flashes (4.11 SIERA) this season, yet not to the same level as Rodon; the pitching advantage here is lopsided. Then you close the offensive gap, and all of a sudden it's easy to see a clear path to a win here for the Giants. The Dodgers will certainly get the last laugh as the likely winners of the NL West. For today though, it'll be the boys by the bay who'll get to let out a nice chuckle.
Pick: San Francisco Moneyline (+136), FanDuel Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rangers @ Marlins
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: MIA -127
TEX: Jon Gray | MIA: Pablo Lopez
Want to see a rarity in baseball? How about a one-game series! Yet, due to the first week of the season being initially postponed due to the lockout, these are the quirks with the schedule that we will play out through the course of the season. It isn't often these two teams face, and right now, they're heading in different directions.
Although the Rangers are eight games below .500, their run differential (-1) certainly indicates that they've been the epitome of a .500 team. Most importantly, over the past 30 days, they've been a borderline top-ten offense in wRC+. Meanwhile, during this span, they're getting strong contributions from several key players:
- Corey Seager: 179 wRC+
- Marcus Semien: 135 wRC+
- Jonah Heim: 129 wRC+
- Nathaniel Lowe: 116 wRC+
Add in the rise of Leody Taveras to the mix, and there are a lot of pieces combining towards a very strong offense. As strong as Pablo Lopez's ERA (2.86) has been this year, that shouldn't be expected to sustain with just a .256 batting average on balls in play allowed (BABIP) and a high 79.7% left-on-base rate allowed – an ERA around his 3.67 SIERA would be more sensible. Add in some recent struggles (4.25 SIERA) over his past nine starts, and the Rangers could surprise some people with the offense they put out here.
Plus, you can make a strong case that Texas has the pitching advantage here. Yes, that's how productive Jon Gray has been this season. Signed to a four-year contract, Texas envisioned him fronting their pitching staff by taking the next step out of Colorado, and that's exactly what has happened. For the season, the 30-year-old is sporting a career-best 3.37 SIERA and 19.9% K-BB, both high-end marks, utilizing a new horizontal sweeper and a more effective changeup to his advantage. The Marlins have the third-lowest wRC+ over the past 30 days, and today those struggles ought to continue.
Wait, the superior offense with arguably the better-performing pitcher in an underdog here? Sign me up for that! In the first game of the second half, what better way to start it out than with an underdog victory?
Pick: Texas Moneyline (+108), FanDuel Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more baseball content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.
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