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After a three-day weekend, it's time to rewind and get back to life, but nothing helps with that better than baseball! The Fourth of July brought us some great, down-to-the-wire action, as well as your first ever 8-5 triple play. What will today have in store? Let's hope for something special.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Tuesday, July 5th, 2022, for the 16-game 4:10 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!
Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. With a full slat on tap, there are plenty of intriguing games to take a look at, What sides/totals should you have your eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!
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MLB Betting Projection Model Results
*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rangers @ Orioles
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: BAL -108
TEX: Spencer Howard | BAL: Austin Voth
These two teams may have had the worst two records in the American League, but they had significantly different approaches this offseason. While Baltimore came into the season with the lowest payroll in baseball, the Rangers spent half a billion dollars on the likes of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Jon Gray, looking to compete right away. Despite this, both teams come with nearly identical records, though we should expect money to win out here.
After a slow start to the season, we've seen the Rangers' offense perform as expected, ranking 12th in weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) since the start of May. Meanwhile, over the past 30 days, they're getting tremendous returns on several of their key players
- Marcus Semien: 153 wRC+
- Adolis Garcia: 162 wRC+
- Nathaniel Lowe: 157 wRC+
- Jonah Heim: 124 wRC+
Corey Seager (82 wRC+) may be struggling during that same time frame, but that also comes with a .200 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). With his walk, strikeout, and barrel rates all in check, all signs point to him still being the elite hitter we've come to know, and when you add Kole Calhoun, Mitch Garver, and Josh Smith (all projected above-average hitters) to the mix, you get a really strong lineup. With a 5.26 projected ERA from ZiPs projections, Austin Voth has been a below-replacement pitcher since the start of 2020, and likely will only pitch three innings here. This places the onus on a bullpen that has been heavily taxed as of late, paving the way for more success for Texas.
Now, Rangers starter Spencer Howard is an unknown commodity who has struggled in his brief MLB stints. With him, though, you're banking on a former top prospect with a 30.8% strikeout rate and 21% K-BB in Triple-A this season, which could turn out to be a very wise one to make. Plus, as a vertical pitcher who induces a lot of fly balls, what better place to pitch than Camden Yards, the ballpark limiting home runs at the highest rate this season, per Baseball Savant.
Essentially, Texas remains the far more talented team with a lot more intrigue in terms of their pitching here. The Orioles have played a lot of very close games that have taken a toll on their pitching staff, and this likely is the game that rears its ugly head. At essentially even money, the Rangers look like a strong bet to come out victorious here.
Pick: Texas ML (-105), DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cubs @ Brewers
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: MIL -145
CHC: Kyle Hendricks | MIL: Jason Alexander
Currently, the Brewers lead the NL Central division with a 47-35 record. On the other hand, the Cubs find themselves 14 games back, just 4.5 games ahead of the last-place Reds. So, this should be an easy victory for Milwaukee, right? Think twice.
The Brewers rotation has been absolutely hammered with injuries, leading to them digging deep into their depth to fill out their pitching staff. Today, they'll be calling on Jason Alexander, who has struggled mightily this season with a 1.4% K-BB and 5.31 skill interactive ERA (SIERA) in 30 innings this year. The 3.82 ERA may give you confidence, but unless his 6.5% home run/fly ball rate allowed or 73.7% left-on-base rate are going to sustain, then that ERA is surely going to regress in stark fashion.
For what it's worth, the Cubs are tied with the Brewers in wRC+ (103) this season, meaning this almost certainly comes down to the pitching. Yes, it hasn't been all smooth sailing for Kyle Hendricks (4.45 SIERA) this season, but he also has been exceptional with a 3.22 SIERA and 23.7% K-BB in his last four starts. Perhaps this is just a flash in the pan, but even then, he's missing enough bats and getting called strikes, good for a 28.2% called-strike + whiff rate (CSW%), while we're seeing him get back to leaning less on his four-seam fastball and more on his sinker during that span.
At the end of the day, Chicago still possesses the pitching advantage here, especially considering they have the fourth-best bullpen in SIERA this season. Yet, they're still a notable underdog, which is something to take advantage of. It hasn't been all sun and rainbows in the Windy City here, but just like the good ol' days, the Cubs can be back to flying the W for at least a day.
Pick: Chicago ML (+123), WynnBet Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more baseball content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.
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