RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~85 pick
CURRENT ADP: ~109 overall
ANALYSIS: Big G is being written off in a major way but that nonsense is our gain. I know health memes fly around but Stanton just bashed 35 home runs with 97 RBI in just 139 games (579 PAs) last season. You not only exceed the power projections but you also get a far stronger batting average for your money on top. Yankee Stadium and the AL East are great hitting environments and Stanton hasn’t posted a BABIP lower than .333 since he joined the Bombers in 2018.
Even if you don’t buy an average near .270, it’d be tough sledding to project for anything below the EDV mark of .248. Derek Carty’s THE BAT X is the most bearish of major projection systems, putting Stanton at .252. The award-winning ATC projections give him a .262 average. I don’t think anyone needs to be sold on Stanton’s power, you know exactly what massive Statcast metrics he crushes on a daily basis.
This almost surely boils down to a question of risk tolerance when it comes to Stanton’s health. He played 159 games in 2017 and 158 games in ‘18, but then only got 18 games in ‘19, 23 of the 60 games in ‘20, but came back to 139 games last year. This previous season only saw him lose 13 games to a left quad strain, which is progress! The man has a big frame and soft-tissue injuries can hit, but if you’re pushing someone with his potential past pick 100 then a safer build can absolutely take on the risk for his upside and median projection.
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