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Last week, we dove into xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) to see who is really maximizing their time at the plate. It's time we look at xBA (expected batting average) but with a twist.
Some players are experiencing better batted-ball fortunes than others and it's bound to turn around at some point. Rather than examining BABIP (batting average on balls in play), it's more valuable to examine the discrepancy between xBA and actual batting average to see who might regress either positively or negatively. Since xBA is a fairly straightforward stat to decipher, I will cover more players than usual.
As usual, I'll skip players who aren't particularly fantasy-relevant (sorry, Kyle Higashioka) and point out a few players who might be in line to add off waivers or trade away at the peak of their value. Check out the rest of our Statcast analysis for fantasy leagues as well as Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds on RotoBaller each week!
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xBA Underachievers
All stats courtesy of BaseballSavant and current as of 5/22/22
Cristian Pache, Oakland A's
Moving from Atlanta to Oakland before the season was never expected to be a great benefit to his fantasy value but Pache has looked like an outright bust outside of providing superb defense. That doesn't count in fantasy leagues, though. He hasn't been over .250 since the first week of the season ended or over .200 since May began. His average keeps sinking steadily with no end in sight. It might be a small relief for sabermetric-centric Billy Beane to know that Pache is deserving of a far better average - 102 points better, in fact.
Typically, a player with great speed can outperform their BABIP but that hasn't been the case. Even stranger is that for the few times he has gotten on base, he has zero stolen bases on the year despite an 89th percentile sprint speed. It has nothing to do with new manager Mark Kotsay's philosophy on the base paths; Oakland is eighth in stolen base attempts per game. Pache should be doing far better with the skills he possesses but it may take some time before it comes together so I wouldn't expect a sudden hot streak.
Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks
Ignore the season-long stats, buy into the expected stats. Walker is scorching the ball but fantasy managers aren't buying it, which is why he is only 28% rostered in Yahoo! First and foremost, he not only deserves to be above the Mendoza line, he actually deserves a .277 average. Second of all, in this current offensive landscape, I'd grab him for the power alone. His 10 HR are tied for sixth in the majors along with guys like Pete Alonso, Kyle Schwarber, and Anthony Rizzo. At this rate, he might be joining them in the Home Run Derby in July.
Walker isn't an exciting new name and a late-age breakout at 29 isn't a given. The D-Backs have been one of the worst offenses in the league to begin the season. They've gotten a shot in the arm with the call-up of Alek Thomas and return of Josh Rojas, however, and are starting to turn things around. As long as Walker is among the league leaders in hard-hit rate, his fortune in the AVG department has a great chance to improve.
Jesse Winker, Seattle Mariners
I highlighted Winker a couple of weeks ago because of his bad luck/bad decision to move to Seattle instead of Cincinnati. I'm purely talking fantasy value, of course. Winker has hit a few balls that were caught at the track which would have been gone in GABP. The better lineup support hasn't helped either. Although Winker should be faring much better with a .288 xBA, it also should be noted that his 29.2% hard-hit rate is a career-low. His plate discipline is still elite with a 1.7% K-BB% and he'll start to get better but we shouldn't expect 2021 Winker at any point because of the power dip.
Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles
The fact that Statcast thinks Mountcastle should be hitting .334 is an eye-opener. He's also in the 94th percentile in xSLG and 91st in xwOBA. He doesn't enjoy taking a walk but that's OK when you're sporting a 36% line drive rate, which is 11 points above league average. The left-field fence hasn't bothered him too much in Camden either as his xHR is equal to actual HR. Fantasy managers might be willing to trade out some average for more power but as long as he's hitting the ball well, there's nothing to complain about. The addition of Adley Rutschman makes this lineup a lot more interesting, so perhaps Mountcastle can see better results in the R+RBI department as well.
Nelson Cruz, Washington Nationals
Is this finally the end??? Not likely. Cruz has disappointed in terms of his .204 and more so with just four HR on the season. He doesn't seem to be crumbling to dust quite yet, though. His max exit velocity is still among the best in the league and while his average exit velocity is down, that's more a function of his GB/FB ratio not being where it usually is. Cruz is not someone who can get by with a 51.4% GB%, which is six points above his career norm. His xBA is spot on with the past two years so once he adjusts his launch angle, we could see the old (former, not advanced age) Cruz return.
xBA Overachievers
Tyler Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds
I love Stephenson so I'd like to conveniently ignore this stat. He's slashing .303/.357/.506 over 98 at-bats and his 20 RBI is two short of the team lead even though he missed time on the 7-day concussion IL. His .377 wOBA ranks among the top 10% of the league even though his walk rate is actually down this year. He's crushing fastballs but sadly, his .415 BA on four-seamers is far higher than his .277 xBA on them. There will be a downturn in average soon but I'm willing to bet he still finishes as a top-five fantasy catcher given how things look at the position.
Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
No, Goldy isn't slowing down and he has actually gotten better in some respects, especially hitting the slider. Maybe the fact he's succeeding against more difficult pitch types and has seen such an uptick in slider usage against him is confusing the system. We'll see if pitchers adjust in kind now that the secret is out and slow down on the sliders. Either way, there's no reason to worry here, so let's move on.
Andrew Benintendi, Kansas City Royals
Of all the numbers that mean something when analyzing a hitter, the one that sticks out most is Benny's 14% K%. He's always had good plate discipline (2020 doesn't count) but this is the best he's shown in his career. While he may not "deserve" a .329 average, his .270 xBA is also the best of his career. His once-plus speed keeps waning so he'll need to make quality contact to keep it up but he is doing just that. Without much power and pretty much no speed, all you are left with is a strong batting average, unfortunately.
Taylor Ward, Los Angeles Angels
Just as we might be getting a full season of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, the Angels' true offensive hero this year is slated for an MRI on Monday. It doesn't seem as if this should issue will become something major, but we will find out soon. Ward has been a revelation, slashing .370/.481/.713 with nine homers, 23 RBI, and 27 runs scored so far. He's off the charts in every expected stat and hard-hit metric you can think of, so even if he doesn't keep up this pace, it's not a matter of falling back to Earth sometime soon. Maybe just a slightly lower orbit.
Juan Yepez, St. Louis Cardinals
He's not one of the biggest overachievers but a 42-point gap is still noteworthy. Yepez isn't one of the bigger-name prospects in the Cards' farm system but he tore the cover off the ball in the Arizona Fall League. This is simply a continuation of a hot year. Everything seems to be in line as far as plate discipline and batted-ball profile, although his 17.6% line drive will need to climb if he is to sustain this type of average. He's hitting breaking balls well and has good lineup support around him to buoy RBI opps, which should increase if anything. I'm not worried about Yepez any more than Ward and he may even be a buy-low candidate at this point.
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