Mining the Minors for Hot Prospect Pitchers - Max Meyer, Grayson Rodriguez, Ryan Pepiot and more

If you've played even one year of fantasy baseball, you know that predicting minor league call-ups can be a frustrating endeavor. We have to weigh not only the talent of the player and the potential lineup opening in his major league organization, but also the relative competitiveness of that organization and any financial or service time factors. Since a year of service based on MLB contracts is 172 days and not the 187 days in a typical MLB season, we often see prospects getting called up after the first two or three weeks of the season to ensure a team doesn't lose a contractual year for that prospect. While the new CBA gave minor incentives to keep top prospects up from the beginning of the season, not all teams changed their tactics (see the Pirates and Oneil Cruz), so we could still expect a few prospects to be promoted in the coming weeks.

Even if the fantasy baseball prospects we see are not the elite caliber players like Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt Jr., they can still have major impacts on our fantasy team. Rhys Hoskins was not a household name when he hit 18 home runs in 50 games as a rookie. Matt Olson hit 24 HRs in 59 MLB games as a rookie just one year after hitting 17 HRs and batting .235 in an entire season at Triple-A. Sometimes something "clicks" for a prospect and we see a major jump that can propel them to fantasy usefulness even if we weren't looking for it at the start of the season.

For this article, I combed through the minor league pitching leaderboards to see who was having a particularly impressive start to the season. I then tried to break down whether the performance was for real and whether or not this player should be somebody that we should have on our radars in redraft leagues. Since many prospects of all levels are rostered in dynasty formats, we're going to stick to redraft formats when looking at the value here. I did the same for hitters two weeks ago, so check that out here.

Max Meyer - RHP, Miami Marlins

2-0, 1.72 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 24.2 K-BB% in six starts

You won't find many more talked-about minor league pitchers than Max Meyers. With Elieser Hernandez struggling in the Marlins rotation, there is a lot of speculation about when Meyer will be up. As of now, it seems like a matter of WHEN Meyer will be up, not IF, and when he does come up, you'll want in.

Meyer sits in the mid-90s with his fastball but can run it up into the high 90s and has a devastating slider. There are some who believe it could be one of the best pitches in the minor leagues, and it should be a real difference-maker for Meyer going forward. With a solid change-up and good command of all of his pitches, Meyer should be a high floor option from the start with true frontline potential going forward.

The only thing to consider if that Max Meyer is not currently on the 40-man roster and Edward Cabrera is. Cabrera got a shot in the Majors last year and was just average, but he's a former top prospect with clear talent. He got a late start to this season after a biceps injury, but he's thrown nine innings across two starts since returning, including striking out six in five shutout innings in his last start.

Even if Cabrera gets the first shot, it might not be a bad idea to stash Meyer now in redraft leagues before he officially gets the call.

Grayson Rodriguez - RHP, Baltimore Orioles

2-0, 3.33 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 28.3 K-BB% in six starts

Even though Meyer is the trendy name in prospect pitchers right now, Grayson Rodriguez came into the season as the top pitching prospect in baseball according to many outlets. The 6'5" right-hander has a high-90s fastball that he commands really well. He also pairs that with a slider that operates as a plus out-pitch, and a change-up that he's continued to improve over the last few years.

Rodriguez has consistently missed bats at every level, with K-BB% rates that hover around 30%, which is beyond elite. His plus command has kept his walk rates in check, and we know he has huge strikeout upside.

Another feather in his cap is that Camden Yards is now playing as a clear pitcher's park given the changes to the left-field wall and dimensions. Now, the ball could carry more there are the weather gets warmer, which has historically been the case, but Rodriguez will no longer find himself in a bad pitching environment when he does get promoted.

As far as promotion goes, I wouldn't expect anything before the summer. Rodriguez is just 22-years-old and has only thrown 27 innings at Triple-A. With the Orioles not competing for the playoffs this year, it would seem unlikely that they rush him to the majors before the summer. Also keep in mind that he threw 103 innings last year, which was a career-high, and it would be unlikely for the Orioles to push him much past 130 innings. All redraft league managers should keep an eye on his innings total when he does get promoted to see how many innings he would get at the MLB level.

Ryan Pepiot - RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

2-0, 2.05 ERA, 1.14 WHIP in six starts

Ryan Pepiot's hot start to the season got him a spot start earlier this week against the Pirates, and we got the full Pepiot experience. Obviously, nerves are a major issue in an MLB debut and shouldn't really be held against a young pitcher; however, Pepiot also walked five batters in his three innings of work, which highlights the minor command issues he's had in the minors.

Pepiot was an advanced college pitcher at Butler, so he's risen through the Dodgers system rather quickly. His success has come on the back of a change-up that got an 80-grade and some say is the best in the minors.

As we saw with Matt Brash earlier this year, if you have pitches that move that much, sometimes command is an issue. When you get to the big leagues, hitters get more patient and will force you to put that pitch over the plate. Pepiot is going to need to command his mid-90s fastball better in future starts if he's going to stick in the rotation.

Unfortunately for him, he's not in the best situation for a consistent role this season. He came up as a spot starter, which would imply that he's currently the Dodgers' 6th starter. The team also has Andrew Heaney and Dustin May working back from arm injuries, and David Price on the COVID-IL. Given the potential clutter in the rotation and Pepiot's lack of polish, he wouldn't be a high priority redraft league add, but the talent is there for him to be an intriguing fantasy arm if he can improve the command of his full arsenal.

Ethan Small, LHP Milwaukee Brewers

2-1, 1.98 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 16.2 K-BB% in six starts

Ethan Small is a prospect that is more impressive when you watch him than when you read about him (sorry). On paper, he has a low-90s fastball, a solid change-up, and two average breaking balls. However, when you see him pitch, you can see the deception and high spin rate on his fastball, which allows it to play up over his velocity.

There are two main concerns for Small going forward. The first is his command. He had a 13.3% walk rate last year, and has seen that rise even higher to 15.4% this year. It's a major reason why his K-BB% is just at 16.2% despite having a 31.6% strikeout rate. As we just mentioned above, command issues tend to play up even more at the big league level, so Small is going to need to iron that out before he becomes an option in redraft leagues.

The second concern for Small is the Brewers as an organization. Last year, Aaron Ashby made his highly anticipated debut and was only able to start in four of his 13 appearances. Even now, he doesn't have a set spot in the rotation. Some dominoes would need to fall for Small to get elevated, but he would likely fill the same role that Ashby had last year, which is not incredibly valuable in redraft leagues unless your rosters have enough space for you to roster a multi-inning reliever.

Zack Thompson, LHP St. Louis Cardinals

1-0, 4.23 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 25.7 K-BB% in six starts

While Thompson's ERA isn't sparkling, he is second among qualified Triple-A pitchers in K-BB%. A lot of that has to do with the massive step forward he's taken with his command so far this season, lowering his walk rate from 12.8% in 93 Triple-A innings last year to just 5.5% this season.

That's important for Thompson because he lacks over-powering velocity, sitting at 92-94. He does have a nice array of pitches with a plus high-spin-rate curve and a solid cutter and change-up pairing to round out the arsenal. Remember that Thompson was drafted in 2019, missed all of 2020 due to the COVID year, and then was pushed right into Triple-A in 2021, so him struggling last year is not entirely shocking.

Given the fact that he's two years older than fellow left-handed Matthew Liberatore and pitching better at this moment, it wouldn't be a surprise for Thompson to get the first crack. After all, he was a first-round pick in his own right, so there is talent here. However, he's not on the 40-man roster, so it would be conceivable that the Cardinals simply go with Johan Oviedo or Angel Rondon if a starting spot opens up.

There are some potential long-term openings in this Cardinals rotation. Steven Matz is 31 years old and off to a terrible start to the season. It's unlikely the team moves on from him given the contract he's signed to, but they also won't keep rolling him out there if he pitches like this. Jordan Hicks has also seemed to continuously tire after three or four innings, so he may eventually shift back to the bullpen, and Dakota Hudson has always seemed like a prime candidate for regression. If any two of those arms get shifted out of the rotation, we could see the Cardinals turn to the minors for a replacement.

Kyle Muller, LHP Atlanta Braves

2-1, 3.16 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 22.1 K-BB% in five starts

Man, I really fell for Muller last year. I even made a video breakdown on him. I really do like the raw stuff, but the walks were an issue last year, with a 12.2% rate in Triple-A and 12.9% rate in the majors. He had improved his command in the minors this year, pitching to a 8.7% walk rate in five Triple-A starts; however, his one major league call-up start was a disaster, allowing seven earned runs and walking six in 2.2 innings.

The Braves currently only have a four-man rotation, and both Huascar Ynoa and Charlie Morton have not been great this year, so there is the potential for Muller to get another shot. However, the Braves also have Bryce Elder, Touki Toussaint, and Tucker Davidson in Triple-A and on the 40-man roster, so they may turn to one of the other guys for the next opportunity.

In fact, Muller's best chance might be a trade since the Braves have so much high-end pitching depth in Triple-A. As a result, he's a name to monitor but one that likely won't matter for this season outside of NL-only leagues if he were to find his way into the rotation (which is a long shot in Atlanta).

Connor Seabold - RHP, Boston Red Sox

3-1, 2.93 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 13.6 K-BB% in six starts

Seabold was the other player who came over to the Red Sox along with Nick Pivetta in the trade for Brandon Workman in 2020. Considering the Red Sox signed Workman back in 2021 (and he was ineffective for both teams), it was a pretty good deal for them.

Seabold is a command/control pitcher who gets by with a low 90s fastball, a plus change-up, an average slider, and a fringy curve. He has a consistent, repeatable delivery, and gets the most out of his arsenal by mixing and matching pitches and locations well. He's a lot like a Cole Irvin type of arm that out-produces his raw stuff by simply being smart and having good command. That's not something to ignore in deep leagues.

Seabold kind of is who he is as a prospect right now, and he's on the 40-man roster, so there's no reason for the Red Sox to intentionally hold him back. Michael Wacha (currently on the COVID-IL) is pitching well this season, but Nick Pivetta and Tanner Houck are struggling and the Red Sox bullpen is so bad that they might shift Garrett Whitlock back there. As a result, I wouldn't be entirely surprised if Seabold was up in June and could be a solid high-floor, low-ceiling option in deep leagues and a potential matchup-dependent streamer in regular redraft leagues.

Jared Koenig - LHP, Oakland Athletics

2-2, 2.73 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 22.3 K-BB% in five games/four starts

I wanted to put Koenig on here because I just learned about his story when writing this article. Keonig was drafted out of a junior college in 2014 by the White Sox but chose to attend Old Dominion instead of signing. He proceeded to pitch poorly enough in his final two years of college that he had to sign with an Independent League in 2017. He played with six different indy teams from 2017-2019 before pitching in New Zealand in 2019-2020. That's where the A's spotted him and gave him a minor league contract.

In 2021, as a 27-year-old in Double-A, he pitched to a 3.26 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and modest 11.3 K-BB%. However, he did enough to stay in the organization, and he began 2022 in Triple-A, where he has had clear success.

In a recent interview, A's Special Assistant Grady Fusion is quoted as saying, Koenig "became much more of a pitcher. His stuff isn’t big, but he’s deceptive. He’s a big guy, he’s durable. He’s got a four-pitch mix with a slider, curveball, and changeup. He’s just done a much better job locating. He pitches 88-92 most of the time. And if he keeps doing what he’s doing, he’s going to get his shot as well with the type of team we have up there currently."

Considering that's from somebody in the organization, we should take note of it. After all, Cole Irvin is almost essentially that same type of pitcher and pitched to a 10-15 record with a 4.24 ERA last year. Keonig is currently out-producing those strikeout rates, but even if he gets a shot and is a mid-4.00 ERA pitcher in the big leagues that could be enough for AL-only leagues, and I would be shocked if he's on many teams right now. He's certainly a guy we can root for from a simple human interest angle.

Jake Walsh - RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

1-0, six saves, 0.82 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 25.6 K-BB% in nine games

Walsh will be one of two bullpen options that we talk about to end this. He's been electric in nine games this year, but was also tremendous in Double-A last year and has a 2.31 minor league ERA and 209 strikeouts in 202.2 innings. That's including 2018 and 2019 when he was a starter.

Since transitioning to the bullpen, he's been lights out. In fact, he allowed only 31 hits in 61.1 innings as a minor league reliever and has struck out 89 and walked just 13 over that span. That's pretty damn good. He's rocking a 12.7 SwStr% in Triple-A this year on the back of a high-90s fastball with arm-side run and sink and a solid 12-6 curve. He can also mix in a change-up too, which should make him effective versus both righties and lefties.

We know St. Louis has never fully entrusted Giovanny Gallegos with full-time closing dutied by Ryan Helsley is in the mix now too, so it seems unlikely Walsh will find his way into saves this year, but he could end the year in high leverage innings, which could produce some wins and holds.

(UPDATE: Walsh was recalled by St. Louis on Wednesday to make his MLB debut)

Yerry De Los Santos - RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates

1-0, two saves, 1.80 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 38.9 K-BB% in eight games

Everybody wants David Bednar to be "the guy," and he certainly might be, but if the Pirates ever want to get back big-time prospects for Bednar, they might have their next closer in De Los Santos. He's carving up Triple-A with his 35.9 K-BB% over 10.2 innings pitched.

He has a two-pitch mix that's a mid-90s fastball that tops out at 98 and a slider that has the potential to be a solid out pitch. He doesn't throw anything that makes you say "DAMN," but when he has his command in order, as he does know, he is tough to hit with that fastball/slider combo.

While I think it's unlikely that he actually becomes the closer, the Pirates have been keen on using committees to close games, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Chris Stratton dealt over the summer, which would give De Los Santos a shot to pitch himself into high leverage innings and make himself useful in SOLDS leagues.

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