RADIO
This week I want to start off by giving a shoutout to a guy who just missed making the cut for this column, but has still gotten off to a good start. Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Luke Raley hit his first career home run on Friday, and is currently slashing .267/.313/.533 through the first seven games of his major league career. I'm sure I'll be writing about him more later on this season, but I wanted to recognize a guy that I watched in 2016 when I was covering what has since turned out to be a very talented Ogden Raptors team.
Alright that's out of the way, so let's focus on this week's column. Last week the theme was all National League players, and now this week it's the all-pitchers column. The biggest name on this week's list is Emmanuel Clase, who looks to have a firm grasp on the primary closer role in Cleveland, but we also have a couple of high-end starting pitcher prospects and former teammates in Michael Kopech and Dane Dunning. Kopech is making a comeback after not pitching since 2018, while Dunning is off to a hot start and making a case that the trade that sent him to Texas might turn out to be a win-win situation for both teams. And last but not least, we have Taylor Widener, who has flown under the radar early on but is putting up good numbers against tough opponents.
What more is there to say other than let's dive in and check out Week 4's hot prospects to watch.
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Emmanuel Clase - RP, Cleveland Indians
74% Rostered
2021 stats: 8 G, 7.1 IP, 1-1, 4 SV, 0.00 ERA, 1.227 WHIP, 10 K
Let's start off with the guy who has the most value in fantasy right now, and therefore is the player that is currently rostered in the most leagues on this list. Early on, Cleveland seemed like they were going to go with a closer-by-committee approach to start the year. However, Clase seems to have locked down sole possession of the closer role. So far this year he has allowed only three unearned runs across eight appearances, while limiting batters to just seven hits and two walks. He is 4-for-5 in save opportunities to start the year and he is racking up strikeouts at a high rate with a 30.3 percent strikeout rate that ranks in the 79th percentile. Clase also ranks in the 79th percentile in whiff rate (32.8%) and in the 97th percentile in chase rate (39.2%). The biggest key to Clase's early success is his slider, as he owns a 45.5 percent whiff rate on that pitch along with a .021 xBA and a .025 xSLG. That pitch has been deadly when mixed with his 100 mph cutter that has a 32.7 percent whiff rate and a .214 xBA and a .348 xSLG.
Clase missed last year due to a PED suspension, but the time off doesn't seem to have slowed him down at all. It's likely that the Indians will still turn to other guys in the bullpen like James Karinchak or Nick Wittgren for save opportunities every now and then, but Clase seems like the guy who will be called on more often than not to get the save. At this point the only reason he isn't rostered in more leagues is because of the concerns of Clase being a part of a closer-by-committee situation. But even if he misses out on a couple saves here and there, he will still be a top-tier closer and should be targeted over some other closers — like Richard Rodriguez or Alex Colome — who may have a more solid grasp on the closers job, but don't provide as much upside in other categories.
Dane Dunning - SP, Texas Rangers
36% Rostered
2021 stats: 3 GS, 15 IP, 1-0, 0.60 ERA, 0.800 WHIP, 16 K
Now as a White Sox fan I can't really complain much since we got Lance Lynn in the deal, but it does sting a little to see Dunning get off to this hot start after being traded to the Rangers this offseason. Three starts into the season Dunning is leading the American League with a 0.60 ERA in 15 innings of work. The only run he allowed came in his first start when he allowed a first-inning home run to Bo Bichette. Since then it's been nothing but zeros for Dunning, as he has allowed just 10 hits and two walks while striking out 16. His 27.6 percent strikeout rate ranks him in the top-25 in the American League among pitchers with at least 10 innings of work, and his 32 percent chase rate is in the 82nd percentile in the majors. Like with Clase, Dunning is seeing good results with his slider, posting a 37 percent whiff rate to go along with a .099 xBA and a .110 xSLG. Those numbers are an improvement on his already very good .116 xBA and .265 xSLG that he posted with his slider in 2020.
Dunning will face a challenge in his next two starts where he is projected to face off against the White Sox and the Angels. Chicago currently has the fifth-lowest strikeout rate in the majors at 22.3 percent, and are 11th in the majors with a .242 average. Los Angeles has the fourth-lowest strikeout rate at 22.1 percent and their .265 average is third-best in MLB. These next two starts will go a long way towards indicating whether Dunning is legit or has just benefited from playing weaker offenses early on. If Dunning puts up another strong outing against the White Sox, then managers should strongly consider grabbing him off the waiver-wire as he could very well end up being one of the best rookie pitchers in the American League by the end of the year.
Michael Kopech - SP/RP, Chicago White Sox
48% Rostered
2021 stats: 5 G, 1 GS, 10.2 IP, 1-0, 1.69 ERA, 0.656 WHIP, 17 K
After missing almost all of the last three seasons due to Tommy John surgery and opting out of last year due to COVID, Kopech is quickly making up for lost time just five appearances into the season. Pitching out of the bullpen in his first four appearances, Kopech posted a 1.17 ERA with 13 strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings of work and did not allow a run through his first three games of the season. He made his first start since 2018 on Sunday in the second game of a doubleheader with Boston where he allowed one run on one hit and one walk while striking out four over three innings. Kopech is already looking significantly better than in his debut performance in 2018, as his 42.5 percent strikeout rate, 1.36 xERA, and .192 xWOBA far surpass his 22.1 percent strikeout rate, 8.27 xERA and .418 xWOBA from three years ago. Yes, we are dealing with small sample size at this point in the season, but it's a fair comparison to make as Kopech only threw 14 1/3 innings in 2018 before undergoing surgery.
Kopech has been one of the most highly-touted fantasy prospects for some time now thanks to his career 31.2 percent strikeout rate in the minors. For a long time the big concern with Kopech was whether he would be able to cut down on his walks enough to stick in the rotation and not be moved to the bullpen. The walk rate is a little on the higher side right now with an eight percent walk rate in Spring Training and a ten percent walk rate to start the year, but it is much better than the 12 percent walk rate he averaged in the minors from 2016 to 2018. He should get at least one and possibly two more starts while Lynn is on the injured list, but once Lynn returns he will likely be moved back to the bullpen. Kopech will likely only be used as a spot starter this year as the team will try to limit his workload as he builds back up to full strength. He should be a good option in saves-plus-holds formats this year and when he is called upon to make a start he'll be a very good streaming pitcher in any format. While he will have value in 2021 barring injury, managers shouldn't expect him to be an impact player until 2022.
Taylor Widener - SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
9% Rostered
2021 stats: 3 GS, 17 IP, 1-0, 1.59 ERA, 1.118 WHIP, 11 K
Widener is definitely a lesser-known guy than the others on this list, but he has quietly gotten off to a nice start in Arizona. He wasn't even originally going to be a part of the Diamondbacks' rotation, but he got a shot thanks to Zac Gallen starting the year on the injured list. A poor start by Caleb Smith cemented Widener's position in the rotation and shuffled Smith off to the bullpen. The best part of Widener's early success is that he's looked good against three of the top offenses in the majors so far. The Padres (.244 average, 19.4 K%), Reds (.264 average, 23.7 K%) and Nationals (.267 average, 22 K%) all rank in the top-10 in the majors in batting average and rank among the 12-lowest strikeout rates — with the Padres and Nationals posting the second and third-lowest strikeout rates respectively. And despite all that, Widener has allowed just four runs — three earned — on 14 hits and five walks over 17 innings of work against them. The fact that he's still managed to post a 15.7 percent strikeout rate in his first career starts going up against these low-strikeout teams is still pretty impressive. Granted, looking at his Statcast metrics, he isn't ranking very well. His 20.9 percent whiff rate and 17.4 percent chase rate are in the 21st and eighth percentiles respectively. However, I'm willing to put a little less stock into these numbers from a small sample size against three good offenses and buy more into the 28.9 percent career strikeout rate over four seasons in the minors.
His next two scheduled starts will be a good indicator for what to expect from Widener going forward, as he is projected to get back-to-back rematches against the Reds and Padres. His first time against the Padres he allowed three hits and three walks while striking out five over six scoreless innings, while he surrendered four runs — three earned — on seven hits against the Reds with three strikeouts in five innings. Preferably Widener would improve upon those numbers in his second time facing them, but even putting up similar numbers to his first time out would still be good to see. For now he should be looked at as primarily a streaming option, but keep an eye out on him as he could end up being worthy of rostering full-time if he continues to pitch like this.
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