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There's no way around it – injuries are the absolute worst when it comes to fantasy football. The only thing worse than injuries are the injuries that leave fantasy managers guessing all week long. Not that we ever want players to be hurt or that this silly, but awesome little game we play is more important than their health, but knowing on Wednesday if players are going to suit up on Sunday would be extremely helpful. That'll never be the case, so we're left having to make educated guesses the best that we can.
Entering Week 14, there's most likely a whole lot more on the line than in Week 3 or Week 7. For many, this is the last week of the regular season. Many are in win or home go matchups and having someone like Deebo Samuel in their lineup is absolutely crucial. He's currently the WR2 in half-PPR and has more points than WR3 Justin Jefferson despite playing one less game. To say that Samuel has been phenomenal would be an understatement.
There are other players affected by Samuel's status. Brandon Aiyuk, who struggled in the early portion of the season, has finally started to turn a corner in the last five weeks and has become a player fantasy managers can maybe trust in their lineups. George Kittle, well... George Kittle is exactly who we thought he was and that's a stud. He's going to get his, but what happens if Samuel is active? Has his play this season reached the start your studs level no matter what? Let's find out.
Is Deebo Samuel Playing In Week 14 Against the Bengals?
After getting injured in Week 12, Deebo Samuel was limited in practice to start this week. But on Friday he was able to return to practice, and there is now some optimism that he may be able to make his return in Week 14 against the Cincinnati Bengals:
This is an update to the original report on Samuel's injury below, and we will continue to post updates as they come in. Be sure to check back here for further injury updates as this is a fluid situation for fantasy football managers.
Is Deebo Samuel Still Injured? Week 14 Injury Updates
Samuel was injured in their Week 12 contest against the Minnesota Vikings where he finished with 78 scrimmage yards and two rushing touchdowns. Following the game, it was reported Samuel would most likely miss 1–2 games.
49ers’ HC Kyle Shanahan said WR Deebo Samuel is expected to miss 1-2 weeks with a strained groin.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 29, 2021
With such a timetable, it's possible Samuel returns this week, but fantasy managers probably shouldn't be counting on it. Samuel has a lengthy injury history dating back to his college days. As a rookie, he missed only one game with a groin strain. His sophomore season was riddled with injuries, however. He suffered a pedal foot fracture in the preseason, which caused him to miss the first three games. When he did return, he injured his hamstring, which cost him three more games. Shortly after returning, he re-injured the same hamstring, which caused him to miss the final three games of the season. Due to this injury history, the 49ers are likely to be cautious with Samuel's return, especially with the injury being the soft tissue variety, which can be prone to re-injury.
#49ers Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel not practicing today for #Bengals
SpTms coordinator Hightower on Seattle fake-punt TD:
"They took a huge risk and got a huge reward. Most people don’t do that in that situation. It’s totally on me."https://t.co/AfdlOGqoCU via @mercnews— Cam Inman (@CamInman) December 8, 2021
While not practicing on Wednesday doesn't mean he definitely will not play this weekend, it's not a good start. Fantasy managers would be wise to prepare as if Samuel will be out again this week. With their game being on the late afternoon slate on Sunday, it especially leaves fantasy managers in a bind if they're planning on waiting out his status if he's not ruled out earlier in the week. That said, there seems to be some optimism Samuel could yet play in Week 14. That much remains to be seen.
#49ers Kyle Shanahan expects LB Fred Warner to practice Wednesday, WR Deebo Samuel remains day to day and hopeful to play Sunday at Bengals
— Cam Inman (@CamInman) December 6, 2021
The only thing fantasy managers can do as of right now is to wait and hope for a positive answer or at the very least, an answer before Sunday's earlier games kick off. Thursday's practice will be a better indicator of what to expect. Another "DNP" would put Samuel in a tough place to suit up on Sunday.
Should I Start Deebo Samuel If He's Active?
If Samuel is able to return to practice on Thursday and Friday, even in a limited fashion and is active on Sunday, fantasy managers shouldn't have any questions about returning him to their lineup. This is the overall WR2 we're talking about here. He's averaging 18.6 points per game and 10.5 opportunities (targets and carries) per game. With just about every single running back banged up in San Francisco, if Samuel is active, fantasy managers should feel confident in head coach Kyle Shanahan scheming up more than a handful of manufactured touches for Deebo.
He's scored 13 or more points in nine of the 11 games he's been active this season and has never finished with less than seven. He has come with an extremely safe floor and week-winning upside. With his injury history, if he's out there playing this weekend, it's because he's extremely close to 100% or 100% entirely. There shouldn't be any fear about firing him up.
If Deebo Samuel Doesn't Play, What Does that Mean for Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle?
There's no way around it, Week 13 was a disappointment for any fantasy managers who started Brandon Aiyuk. With Deebo inactive, the hope and expectation was that we'd finally be rewarded with a true breakout performance from the second-year receiver. Unfortunately, Kittle had different plans.
49ers replaced Deebo Samuel by sending George Kittle to the moon:
* 12 targets
* 40% (!) target share
* 47% of team’s air yards
* 28 routes on 32 dropbacks
* Two backfield snaps— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) December 6, 2021
While the three-catch and 55-yard performance from Aiyuk was not what fantasy managers were hoping for, there's no reason not to fire him up again if Samuel is out. Since Week 8, Aiyuk is the WR17 in half-PPR scoring and is averaging 10.7 points per game. He has re-established himself as the No. 2 wide receiver and that was true this past Sunday as well. While it's certainly clear where Aiyuk ranks compared to Samuel and Kittle, that doesn't mean he can't be a valuable fantasy asset, especially if Samuel is out. Even if that leaves Aiyuk playing second fiddle to Kittle, it's unlikely he's going to go off for another 12 target, 9 catch, 181 yard and 2 touchdown performance. Although...
George Kittle has played five games the last two seasons without a fully healthy Deebo Samuel
In those five games, he’s averaging 7.8 receptions for 115.8 yards on 9.2 targets per game
@ Cincinnati next week is a vibe
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) December 6, 2021
Still, Aiyuk should have earned his fantasy managers' trust again after the past five weeks. If Deebo is out he should be treated as a safe WR3 with WR2 upside. As far as Kittle goes, well that one is easy, he's an absolute must-start and he may very well end up being the TE1 for the rest of the season.
Can I Trust Brandon Aiyuk If Deebo Samuel Does Play?
This may come as a surprise to many, but since Week 9 when Kittle returned to the lineup, Aiyuk has been the leading receiver for the 49ers prior to Kittle's explosion in Week 13 with Samuel on the sidelines.
Since Kittle returned & Aiyuk was freed (Weeks 9–12) here are the per game averages for the big-3 in SF...
Aiyuk: 6.3 targets, 4.8 catches, 73 yards, 64 air yards, 26.3% target share
Kittle - 5.3 T's, 4 C's, 50 Y's, 47 AY's, 22.1%
Samuel - 5 T's, 3 C's, 47 Y's, 55 AY's, 21.1%— Rob (@RobFFAddict) December 9, 2021
Despite Samuel's decreased usage in the passing game, Shanahan has made up for that by giving Samuel 19 carries in Weeks 10–12. If Samuel does play, fantasy managers should expect Deebo to stay involved in the rushing game. At this time, starting running back Elijah Mitchell looks like a long shot to play as he's dealing with a knee injury and having to pass the concussion protocol. Jeff Wilson Jr. is also banged up, which would create a situation where Samuel would be used in the backfield again if active. Should that come to pass, it would likely mean Aiyuk maintains a solid target share in the passing game.
If Samuel is active, fantasy managers should treat Aiyuk as more of a boom or bust WR3 compared to the safe WR3 with upside that he would be with Samuel sidelined once again.
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