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Week 16 is nearly over, but if your fantasy playoff matchup hinges on a performance in Monday night's game between the Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints, you've come to the right place.
The Saints offense is likely to struggle against an aggressive Dolphins defense with rookie quarterback Ian Book making his first career NFL start. How will Miami's offense fare against a strong Saints defense that will be missing some key defenders, and what is the Dolphins situation at running back going to look like?
Is Myles Gaskin Miami's starting running back? Is Duke Johnson worth starting in fantasy after his big Week 15 performance? There are plenty of questions about Miami's RBs this week, and for good reason. Let's dig in more...
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Is Myles Gaskin the Dolphins Lead Running Back?
Running back Myles Gaskin has been the team's lead back for most of the year, but that wasn't the case in Week 15 against the New York Jets. Most fantasy managers were stoked to get Gaskin back from the COVID-19 list in time for last Sunday's game, but he played just 36% of the offensive snaps and disappointed with 10 carries for 54 yards and no catches.
Meanwhile, the recently signed Duke Johnson played 57% of the snaps and led the backfield with 22 carries for 107 yards and two touchdowns, adding one catch for 20 yards.
Johnson came out of nowhere to steal Gaskin's thunder last week, but Gaskin missed the Week 14 game while on the COVID list and was activated just two days before the game against the Jets.
The 24-year-old didn't get any preparation with the offense before the contest against the Jets, so the Dolphins coaching staff elected to give Johnson the lead-back role, and he didn't disappoint them.
Is Duke Johnson Worth Starting in Week 16 Against the Saints?
Running back Duke Johnson had an unexpectedly great performance in the Week 15 win over the Jets, but he's unlikely to repeat that on Monday night against the Saints. For one, the Jets have been one of the best matchups for RBs all season; they've allowed the most fantasy points per game to the position and 141.3 rushing yards per game (third-most in the NFL).
Johnson certainly earned more carries, but will he have as much success on the road on Monday night? It seems unlikely, especially since the New Orleans defense is a stark contrast to that of the Jets defense that Johnson torched a week ago. The Saints D allows the second-fewest fantasy points per game to RBs and 96.6 rushing yards per contest (fifth-fewest in the NFL).
The 28-year-old averages 4.2 yards per carry on 485 career rushing attempts, and before Week 15 he had only seen four carries back in Week 11 for the Dolphins. Don't get your hopes up if you're expecting another big game from Johnson.
Should I Start Myles Gaskin or Should I Start Duke Johnson?
Neither Myles Gaskin nor Duke Johnson will be upside RB plays in fantasy on Monday night on the road against a tough Saints run defense. Our best guess is that Johnson will remain involved in the rushing attack after his performance last week (22 carries, 107 rushing yards, two TDs), but with Gaskin having a full week of practice, he should be more involved than he was in Week 15.
We know Gaskin hasn't been all that impressive in 2021. He's averaging a career-low 3.5 yards per carry, hasn't gone over 90 yards rushing in a single game, has only three rushing TDs and checks in as the RB23 in overall fantasy points.
But look at it this way: The Dolphins have been using Gaskin as their lead back all year, so it makes sense for them to get him back into the offensive game plan after a bout with COVID. Johnson stepped up for the Dolphins last week, but Gaskin is their primary backfield weapon as they make a push towards a potential wild-card spot in the AFC playoffs.
In conclusion, both Gaskin and Johnson are in the RB3/flex range in a potential timeshare this evening. We'd expect Gaskin to lead the Dolphins in touches Monday night, but the potential for Johnson to steal valuable touches along the way will cap both of their fantasy ceilings.
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