NFL DFS Prop Picks for Monday (10/5/20) - Monkey Knife Fight

Don’t say Covid-19 never gave you anything good because at the very least you’re getting a Monday Night doubleheader in Week 4 of the National Football League. Twice as many games, twice as much fun and opportunities to win playing props on Monkey Knife Fight.

It’s not good news for the Patriots, who were already facing a daunting matchup in Kansas City but are now going without starting quarterback Cam Newton, who tested positive for Covid-19 last week. The defending-champion Chiefs have looked like a juggernaut early in the season so the Patriots could hardly afford to show up at less than their best but that is the way it looks going into the early Monday nightery.

The original Monday night game has the Atlanta Falcons going to Green Bay. The Falcons are reeling, unable to hold massive leads in back-to-back losses, leaving them at 0-3. Green Bay has started the season 3-0 and look even better than last year’s team that seemed a little lucky on their way to 13 wins. Here are some angles to consider for the Monday night schedule on Monkey Knife Fight.

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NEW ENGLAND-KANSAS CITY

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Patrick Mahomes MORE THAN 299.5 PASSING YARDS

Watching Mahomes play it feels like he only gets held under 300 yards if he (or the Chiefs) feel like easing up once they have a big lead. Maybe they won’t race out to a big lead against New England, because the Patriots are good too, but New England is also allowing 7.4 net yards per pass attempt, the sixth-highest average in the league.

Brian Hoyer MORE THAN 230.5 PASSING YARDS

The Patriots will presumably have to throw quite a bit if they are going to keep pace with the Chiefs. Even is a slowed-down type of attack, Hoyer can’t just hand the ball off all night and hope that’s enough. In his career, Hoyer has had 32 games in which he played more than 90% of the offensive snaps, and threw for more than 230 yards in 23 of them.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire MORE THAN 76.5 RUSHING YARDS

The Patriots are allowing 4.6 yards per carry and Edwards-Helaire is averaging 4.4 yards per carry through the first three weeks so let’s compromise and say he can expect to gain about 4.5 yards per carry. Does he get 19 carries? Edwards-Helaire has had 25, 10, and 20 carries in the first three games so that’s a close call but I’ll lean towards yes.

RAPID FIRE

Travis Kelce +0.5 receiving yards vs. Tyreek Hill

Through three games this season, Kelce is averaging 75.7 receiving yards per game and Hill is averaging 74.0 receiving yards per game. They are both vital components in the Chiefs attack. Given the choice between them, Kelce does appear to be safer, with maybe not quite as much boom or bust potential as Hill.

Julian Edelman -0.5 receptions vs. Sammy Watkins

While Edelman is batting a knee injury, he is still going to be a fixture in the Patriots passing attack. He only had two catches last week but has been targeted 24 times in three games. Watkins is a big part of the Chiefs attack, too, with 15 catches on 20 targets in three weeks, but Kansas City has more options.

ATLANTA-GREEN BAY

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Matt Ryan LESS THAN 313.5 PASSING YARDS

Matty Ice has been averaging 320.3 passing yards per game and the Falcons will likely be losing, so there is little reason to believe he won’t be throwing a lot at Green Bay. That’s a big number to cover, though, considering his past two games are under 275 yards passing.

Aaron Rodgers MORE THAN 290.5 PASSING YARDS

Rodgers has looked rejuvenated this season, averaging 295.7 passing yards per game, and faces a Falcons team that has been surrendering leads because they can’t defend the pass, allowing 350.3 passing yards per game. Can Rodgers go for 290-plus if Green Bay gets out to an early lead is the question.

Calvin Ridley MORE THAN 80.5 RECEIVING YARDS

Julio Jones is battling a hamstring injury, and Ridley has his own ankle injury that he’s dealing with, but he’s averaging 116.3 receiving yards per game this season, with 21 catches on 35 targets in three games. He’s a big part of the Falcons attack under any circumstances.

RAPID FIRE

Todd Gurley +25.5 rushing yards vs. Aaron Jones

While Jones is averaging 101 rushing yards per game, he’s been held to 70 or fewer yards in two of those three games. If he is held to less than 70 yards that would mean Gurley would have to come in under 44 yards at the most and while Gurley might be mostly washed, he can produce more than that.

Russell Gage +0.5 receptions vs. Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Six times in his career, MVS has recorded at least four receptions. That’s not a huge number to begin with and it might not be enough to outduel Gage, who had 15 catches in the first two games before having to leave Week 3 early due to a concussion. Gage is good to go on Monday night and the Falcons will be throwing the ball.

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