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Week 9 of the NFL season is upon us and while there are always Covid threats lurking around every corner, it appears that all systems are go for Sunday’s action in the NFL and that means lots of opportunities to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.
It’s been a wild season in the NFL, not least of all because of how much scoring is happening. Right now, teams are scoring on 41.2% of their possessions. Over the previous decade, the average ranged from 32.5% to 36.5%. Nothing was pushing 40% and yet here we are.
A decade ago, teams would average 1.5 passing touchdowns and 0.8 rushing touchdowns per game. This season, those numbers are up to 1.8 passing touchdowns and 1.0 rushing touchdowns per game. That’s an extra half touchdown per contest.
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Here are some angles to consider for the Week 9 Sunday NFL games on Monkey Knife Fight:
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STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Russell Wilson LESS THAN 307.5 PASSING YARDS
Wilson is averaging 307.3 passing yards per game so it’s not a stretch to expect him to throw for 308, a threshold he has passed four times in eight games this season, but the Bills Defense has actually been okay against the pass (223.6 yards per game, 6.4 net yards per pass attempt) – defending the run has been a bigger challenge for them.
Patrick Mahomes MORE THAN 299.5 PASSING YARDS
Often it feels like Mahomes and the Chiefs decide on whether to limit his passing production more than any defense can. Sometimes they call off the dogs and then, last week, he drops 431 yards and five touchdowns on the Jets. Mahomes has passed for 300 or more yards in four of eight games this season and faces a Panthers team that has allowed 232.5 passing yards per game and 6.3 net yards per pass attempt, both of which are better than league average.
Derrick Henry MORE THAN 95.5 RUSHING YARDS
Averaging a league-high 110.7 rushing yards per game, Henry faces a Bears Defense that is good, but not amazing, against the run, allowing 120 rushing yards per game on a 4.3 yards per carry clip.
Dalvin Cook MORE THAN 22.5 FANTASY POINTS
Cook returned to the Vikings lineup in Week 8 after missing a couple of weeks with a groin injury and he crushed the Packers. In six games this season, Cook is averaging 129.8 yards from scrimmage, 2.3 receptions and 1.8 touchdowns per game. Furthermore, Detroit isn’t great against the run, surrendering 130 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per carry.
Lamar Jackson LESS THAN 20.5 FANTASY POINTS
This hasn’t been a smooth 2020 season for the reigning MVP. He is averaging 191.9 passing yards per game and 58.7 rushing yards per game, passing for a dozen touchdowns and running for a couple more. He’s certainly capable of putting up big numbers but he is also going against a Colts Defense that ranks third in defensive DVOA on Football Outsiders, so maybe this is going to be more challenging than the typical week.
Christian McCaffrey MORE THAN 19.5 FANTASY POINTS
Returning to the Panthers lineup for the first time since Week 2, McCaffrey has been one of the most productive backs in football. Since the start of the 2019 season, he has averaged 145.3 yards from scrimmage, 6.8 receptions per game, and 1.3 touchdowns per game. Kansas City may provide tough opposition but they are closer to league average defensively, which means McCaffrey should be able to produce.
RAPID FIRE
Julio Jones -18.5 receiving yards vs. Tyreek Hill
Hill is a big play threat so there is always the chance that he goes off but he has yet to put up 100 receiving yards in a game this season and Jones has gone for 137 yards in a game twice in the past three weeks (he had 97 yards in the other) so the hot hand who consistently gets more targets is the way to go.
STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Justin Herbert MORE THAN 275.5 PASSING YARDS
Herbert has really been something for the Chargers, throwing for more than 275 yards in five of his first six NFL starts, averaging 303.3 passing yards per game. Facing a Raiders defense with below-average pass defense doesn’t seem like a path to shutting Herbert down.
Derek Carr LESS THAN 275.5 PASSING YARDS
While Carr has been quietly effective this season, he is also averaging nearly 40 fewer passing yards per game than Herbert. The Chargers’ pass defense is around league average (a little worse on yards per game, a little better on net yards per pass attempt) so it’s certainly possible that Carr gets loose but if the Raiders are winning they may not need to throw that much.
Tua Taigovailoa LESS THAN 230.5 PASSING YARDS
In his first NFL start, last week against the Rams, Taigovailoa threw for just 93 yards in a Dolphins victory. He faces a Cardinals Defense this week that is still decent against the pass so maybe it’s best to wait and see whether Taigovailoa is ready to air it out in the NFL.
Kyler Murray LESS THAN 23.5 FANTASY POINTS
An average game for Murray this season includes 263.9 passing yards per game, 62.4 rushing yards per game, 1.0 rushing touchdowns per game, and 1.9 passing touchdowns per game. The man can fill a stat sheet. He matches up against a Miami defense that is a little better than average overall, ranking 11th in DVOA, so as productive as Murray has been this isn’t an ideal matchup for him.
James Conner MORE THAN 18.5 FANTASY POINTS
The question is: how bad is the Dallas defense? Conner is averaging 89.4 yards from scrimmage with 2.6 receptions and 0.7 touchdowns per game so putting up 19 or more fantasy points should be a challenge. Dallas’ defense ranks 24th in DVOA and is allowing 5.1 yards per carry so consider this more a vote against Dallas’ defense than for Conner’s production.
RAPID FIRE
Darren Waller -0.5 receptions vs. Chase Claypool
With Diontae Johnson out of the Steelers lineup this week, the rookie Claypool should have a chance to build upon his strong start to his NFL career. At the same time, he is averaging 3.3 catches per game so far, which is a long way from Waller, who is the Raiders’ number one receiving option with 6.4 catches per game.
Keenan Allen +1.5 receiving yards vs. DeAndre Hopkins
Herbert’s favorite target is Allen, who has had double-digit targets in five of the past six games, and he was forced to leave the sixth game early due to injury. He is averaging 78.3 receiving yards per game, his highest per-game average since 2017. Hopkins is putting up 100.6 receiving yards per game but has alternated between on and off performances from week to week so if the pattern holds, Hopkins could have trouble against the Dolphins this week.
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