RADIO
Thursday night in the National Football League brings a quality AFC South matchup, pitting the 5-3 Indianapolis Colts against the 6-2 Tennessee Titans.
Indianapolis brings a strong defense to the table, ranked third in DVOA through the first nine weeks of the season. They were on a pretty good run, winning five of six games, before falling flat against the Baltimore Ravens last week.
Tennessee opened the season with five straight wins, lost a couple, then got back on track with a win against the Chicago Bears last week. The Titans Defense is mediocre but they rank third in offensive DVOA so it should be a competitive matchup against that Indianapolis defense.
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INDIANAPOLIS-TENNESSEE
MORE OR LESS
Philip Rivers LESS THAN 265.5 PASSING YARDS
While this season hasn’t exactly been a disaster for Rivers there are some signs that he is a 39-year-old quarterback who may not be at his very best. When it comes to production, he is averaging 260.9 passing yards per game, which is his lowest average since 2012. The Titans are allowing 275 passing yards per game, which is sixth worst for pass defense, but 6.5 net yards per pass attempt which is around the middle of the pack. Ultimately, Rivers has only thrown for more than 265 yards in two games this season and if the Titans can control the clock, he might have a hard time accumulating yardage in this game.
Ryan Tannehill LESS THAN 243.5 PASSING YARDS
The Colts pass defense is at the other end of the spectrum. They have allowed just 206.4 passing yards per game, and 5.9 net yards per pass attempt. Right off the top, that means a challenging game for Tannehill and the Titans. Tannehill is averaging 247.6 passing yards per game this season which doesn’t seem like enough of an advantage when facing one of the league’s better pass defenses and he’s been held under 244 yards passing in four of his past five games.
Derrick Henry MORE THAN 82.5 RUSHING YARDS
It’s a meeting of the irresistible force and the immovable object. Henry is averaging 105.4 rushing yards per game this season, getting 22.8 carries per game as the focal point of the Titans attack. He has gone over 110 yards four times in eight games this season and rushed for 84 yards once, so he’s hit the over in five of eight games. However, he’s gone under 82 yards in three of those games and that includes last week against a Bears Defense that isn’t as good against the run as Indianapolis. Last season against the Colts, Henry rushed for 82 yards on 15 carries at home early in the season then rumbled for 149 yards on 26 carries late in the year at Indy. It’s possible to make an argument for both sides here but I don’t expect Henry to get locked up for a second straight week.
A.J. Brown LESS THAN 4.5 RECEPTIONS
Tennessee’s game-breaking wideout is battling a knee injury and that might make it more difficult for him to get loose against a strong Colts Defense. He’s averaging 5.2 receptions per game this season but has put up four in back-to-back weeks.
Jonathan Taylor LESS THAN 9.5 FANTASY POINTS
When Marlon Mack was injured, it was supposed to open the door for Taylor, the rookie out of Wisconsin, to take over in the Colts backfield and he did, kind of. The results just weren’t that great and now Taylor has played about a third of the offensive snaps in the past two games, as Jordan Wilkins has started to take carries away from Taylor.
RAPID FIRE
A.J. Brown -11.5 receiving yards vs. Corey Davis
Brown is quite clearly the preferred receiving option for the Titans and is averaging 76.2 receiving yards per game, compared to Davis 61.2, though Davis’ average was knocked down after he was shut out last week against Chicago, finishing with zero catches on three targets.
Zach Pascal -0.5 receptions vs. Jonnu Smith
Early in the season, when the Titans were dealing with some wide receiver injuries, Smith was a reliable option in the receiving game, and maybe they will need him to step up this week. However, he has been an afterthought offensively, managing just six catches in the past four games. Pascal is a decent receiving option for the Colts and leads the team with 40 targets on the season. He has a dozen catches on 19 targets in the past three games, usage that should give him the edge over Smith.
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