RADIO
Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.
My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (81-40-7), netting over 45 units of profit and a 66% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 18 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and three so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.
In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
Special Bonus - Spencer's Free Cheat Sheet
Check out my brand new PGA Weekly Cheatsheet.
There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!
Head-To-Head Selection
Byeong Hun An -115 over Rafa Cabrera Bello -105
Reasons I Liked the Play:
For what it is worth, Byeong Hun An over Rafa Cabrera Bello is grading out to have the highest win equity advantage for me of any play on the card. Part of the reason behind this is due to Cabrera Bello's poor scoring numbers, although that doesn't become quite as pronounced at shorter venues. Still, though, Cabrera Bello ranks outside the top-100 over his previous 50 rounds in GIR, proximity from 150-200 yards, par-four and five scoring, good drive percentage, birdies or better gained and strokes gained approach.
Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card:
I typically don't deviate away from what my math says, but something is causing me slight trepidation with Hun An's volatility level. European players with limited rounds on the PGA Tour yearly will also grade lower than anticipated, and a venue such as Harbour Town does suit the Spaniard's game to a T. There is enough advantage there for me to overlook some of my concerns, but it doesn't mean I am jumping for joy behind the selection.
0.75 Units to Win 0.65
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First Round Leader
- Matthew Fitzpatrick 60/1
- Brian Harman 80/1
- Byeong Hun An 80/1
- Maverick McNealy 125/1
- Russell Henley 125/1
- Bronson Burgoon 150/1
- Talor Gooch 150/1
- Lanto Griffin 150/1
- Chez Reavie 150/1
- Cameron Tringale 150/1
- Sebastian Munoz 150/1
These first-round leader wagers will always carry minimal exposure but are a fun way to get a little action going at a hefty price early in the week. The goal is to find as much volatility as possible on these players and hope to get lucky with the putter in round one.
Top-20
Matthew NeSmith 8/1
Matthew NeSmith has quietly put together nine made cuts in his previous 10 events, finishing inside the top-20 in four of those appearances. Yes, this week's tournament has the big boys out in full effect, but you have to find it encouraging that three of the shorter venues on tour (Pebble Beach, Sea Island and the PGA West Stadium Course) were the locations of his top-20s.
Bernhard Langer 20/1
We went down this road last weekend in my premium article with Bernhard Langer as a top-20 wager, but the 62-year-old was unable to ever get much going by losing 2.2 shots with his putter. If we are looking for some positives, iron play was not the issue with Langer gaining 1.56 shots with his approach game over two days, and we should view that as a positive with Harbour Town being a better natural set up for him to plod his way around the track. We are going to need a little better putting if we are going to get this longshot wager across the finish line, but Bermuda has historically been Langer's best surface.
Last Recorded Results (Charles Schwab)
0-1-0 H2H (-0.75 Units)
Corey Conners Top-20 (6/1 odds) - Dead-heat winner for 2.5/1 odds.
For as poor as last weekend went across the board for us, Corey Conners was able to partially salvage the week with his share of 19th place in Texas. For those of you who aren't aware of how top-20 wagers work when they cross the dead-heat threshold, the best way to describe how to calculate your payout would be this:
Take your potential winnings + stake, divide that by how many players are tied for that spot and multiply that by how many places are available to be had. In this example, a $10 wager would payout $70 total with a non-split win ($60 in winnings + $10 stake). Four players tied for 19th place ($70 divided by 4 =$17.5) and we have two spots up for grabs at 19th and 20th place ($17.5 x 2 =$35.00).
It is unfortunate that we weren't able to grab the full 6/1 price with how the back-nine went for Conners, but it is always nice to secure some profit when we can.
2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (9-5-1)
+3.99 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets
| Tournament | Head-to-Head Bet | Bet | My Picks Finish | Opponents Finish | Result | Total |
| Sanderson Farms | Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T18 (-11) | MC (+4) | Win | 1 |
| Safeway Open | Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T7 (-12) | MC (+2) | Win | 1 |
| Shriners Open | Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | 61 (-9) | Loss | -1.15 |
| Houston Open | Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 | 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 | MC (+3) | MC (+3) | Push | 0 |
| Mayakoba Classic | Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 | 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 | T48 (-5) | T76 (+1) | Win | 1.1 |
| RSM Classic | Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 | 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 | T10 (-13) | MC (-3) | Win | 1 |
| Sony Open | J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+3) | T21 (-5) | Loss | -1.1 |
| American Express | Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T10 (-18) | T17 (-16) | Win | 1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T21 (-6) | T68 (+1) | Win | 1 |
| Waste Management | Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+5) | MC (+6) | Win | 1 |
| Pebble Beach | Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | MC (E) | Win | 1 |
| Genesis Invitational | Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 | 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 | MC (+4) | MC (+6) | Win | 1.44 |
| WGC Mexico | Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 | 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 | T53 (+3) | T6 (-13) | Loss | -1 |
| Honda Classic | Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+8) | T11 (-1) | Loss | -1.2 |
| Charles Schwab | Matt Kuchar -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | T32 (-6) | Loss | -1.1 |
Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results
14-10-0 (+5.66 Units)
| Tournament | Head-to-Head Bet | Bet | My Picks Finish | Opponent Finish | Result | Total |
| Sony Open | Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T45 (-1) | MC (+5) | Win | 1 |
| Sony Open | Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | T32 (-3) | T53 (E) | Win | 1 |
| Sony Open | Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T38 (-2) | T4 (-9) | Loss | -1.1 |
| Sony Open | Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas | 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 | 3rd (-10) | MC (+3) | Win | 1.6 |
| Sony Open | Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini | 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 | MC (+4) | T21 (-5) | Loss | -1 |
| American Express | Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | T43 (-12) | MC (-6) | Win | 1 |
| American Express | Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard | 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 | T17 (-16) | 72 (-6) | Win | 1 |
| American Express | Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T10 (-18) | T17 (-16) | Win | 1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | 1st (-15) | T55 (-1) | Win | 1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+3) | T16 (-7) | Loss | -1.1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker | 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 | T49 (-2) | T3 (-12) | Loss | -1 |
| Waste Management | Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel | 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 | T49 (-3) | T9 (-11) | Loss | -1 |
| Waste Management | Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm | 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 | 1st (-17) | T9 (-11) | Win | 1.6 |
| Waste Management | Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (E) | T9 (-11) | Loss | -1.15 |
| Pebble Beach | Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman | 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 | MC (-2) | MC (-1) | Win | 0.67 |
| Pebble Beach | Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay | 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 | T64 (+3) | T11 (-7) | Loss | -0.5 |
| Pebble Beach | Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ | 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 | MC (-1) | T55 (E) | Loss | -0.6 |
| Genesis Invitational | Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners | 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 | 67th (+10) | MC (+3) | Win | 1.1 |
| WGC Mexico | Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen | 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 | 11th (-11) | T51 (+2) | Win | 1.15 |
| Honda Classic | Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T8 (-2) | MC (+6) | Win | 1 |
| Arnold Palmer | Tony Finau -103 over Jason Day | 0.75 Units to Win 0.73 | MC (+5) | WD | Win | 0.73 |
| Arnold Palmer | Bubba Watson -105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick | 0.75 Units to Win 0.71 | MC (+7) | T9 (+1) | Loss | -0.75 |
| Arnold Palmer | Sungjae Im +101 over Patrick Reed | 0.75 Units to Win 0.76 | 3rd (-2) | T15 (+3) | Win | 0.76 |
| Charles Schwab | Russell Knox -135 over Bubba Watson | 0.75 Units to Win 0.56 | MC (+6) | T7 9-13) | Loss | -0.75 |
2020 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10
| Player | Event | Odds | Finish Position |
| Cameron Smith | Sony Open | 55 | 1 |
| Patrick Reed | WGC Mexico | 50 | 1 |
| Sungjae Im | Honda Classic | 35 | 1 |
| Abraham Ancer | American Express | 50 | 2 |
| Bud Cauley | American Express | 110 | 4 |
| Joaquin Niemann | Sentry TOC | 50 | 5 |
| Justin Thomas | WGC Mexico | 11 | 6 |
| Dustin Johnson | Sentry TOC | 10 | 7 |
| Russell Henley | Honda Classic | 100 | 8 |
| Xander Schauffele | ZOZO Championship | 25 | 10 |
| Andrew Putnam | American Express | 66 | 10 |
| Dustin Johnson | Genesis Invitational | 15 | 10 |
Yearly Record:
2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)
Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41
