RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my PGA DFS Pivots for DraftKings! This week, the PGA event is The Players Championship. We have a chaotic week ahead of us weather-wise. Rain and thunderstorms are currently forecasted for the first three days. This is another variable that makes this week very tough to handicap. I find myself leaning more on projected ownership and being contrarian when there are so many unknowns this week. One thought that might be contrarian is to stack the PM/AM tee times.
When looking at the weather it is obviously important to follow the forecast. However, weather models can also help us identify what might take place. My favorite model is the NAM-3km. At the time of writing this article, the NAM identifies a possible four to a five-hour gap where there could be golf Thursday. Friday looks much better with scattered light showers in the morning and the possibility of storms arriving in the afternoon. That could possibly be 6 hours of golf Friday.
This is all incredibly subjective, and the weather will likely change, but I am just trying to help identify possible strategies when constructing lineups and player pools. I feel that come Saturday morning the PM/AM wave will be midway to near completing their second round. That would leave the AM/PM wave to have their full second round be in the worst conditions of the tournament. If that wave must stop at any point on Saturday. They would still have to finish their round Sunday morning in 40-degree weather wind gust around 18mph. I could be wrong, I am going to construct my lineups in a way in case it might be true. If I get lucky and it plays out this way, then I could have some leverage over the field.
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The Players Championship: DFS Lineup Pivots
Pivot off Patrick Cantlay ($9,900) to Dustin Johnson ($9,800)
Patrick Cantlay is currently projected to be one of the highest owned golfers in the $9,000 range. While Cantlay has performed well at Pete Dye courses, he has not recorded a top 20-place finish at The Players Championship. Cantlay is also not in the greatest form when it comes to his ball-striking. He has lost strokes on approach in three out of his last four tournaments. Finally, he is in the AM/PM wave which I will try to avoid.
Dustin Johnson is a great GPP option. Currently projected to be in the single digits, he could offer upside. Johnson has not had a strong 2022. His best finish was a 25th-place at The Farmers Insurance Open. In his last start, he missed the cut at The Genesis Invitational. However, TPC Sawgrass is a great place for him to find form. He has good course history, highlighted by a fifth-place finish in 2019. He also ranks 10th in DraftKings points at TPC Sawgrass.
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Pivot Off Hideki Matsuyama ($9,600) to Jordan Spieth ($9,000)
Currently projected just under 20% owned, Hideki Matsuyama has good form and course history. When Matsuyama plays well at The Players it is usually due to his putting. When he finished in seventh place in 2016, he gained 6.5 strokes putting. To compare, he missed the cut last year losing 1.7 strokes putting. Relaying on high-owned Matsuyama, in a possible bad draw, to putt well may give us reasons to pivot.
Jordan Spieth is a similar play to Dustin Johnson. He is projected to be in the single digit’s ownership-wise and gets the possible tee time wave advantage. Spieth has had a decent year so far, he finished in second place at Pebble Beach. He has also gained strokes on approach in three straight tournaments. Even more importantly for Spieth, he has gained strokes off-the-tee in three straight tournaments at well. At almost half the ownership of Matsuyama, Spieth can offer great value.
Pivot Off Mathew Fitzpatrick ($7,700) to Max Homa ($7,500)
Mathew Fitzpatrick is currently projected to be one of the highest owned golfers in the field. Fitzpatrick arrives at TPC Sawgrass off three straight top-ten finishes. He also finished in ninth place last year at The Players Championship. That week he lost strokes on approach and gained 3.3 strokes putting. Fitzpatrick also has two missed cuts at this event and ranks 101st in strokes gained approach at TPC Sawgrass. His high ownership number and approach play at this event may be a reason to pivot.
Max Homa is currently projected to be almost half the ownership of Fitzpatrick. Homa has also had a strong year. He has three straight top 20-place finishes. He has gained strokes tee-to-green in three straight events as well. Homa’s only start this event was a missed cut last year. If he can continue his stellar ball-striking form he could outperform his low ownership.
Other Possible Leverage Plays:
C.T. Pan ($6,800) A winner at a Pete Dye course, C.T. Pan arrives at TPC Sawgrass after a 16th-place finish at The Honda Classic. He gained 4.7 strokes on approach last week and 6.3 strokes tee-to-green. Pan’s course history is not great but he appears to be in form and receives the possible advantage of the PM/AM wave.
Brendan Steele ($6,500) Brendan Steele finished in sixth-place at The Players Championship in 2017. He gained 6.2 strokes tee-to-green and 4.5 strokes putting that week. Steele also had a stellar tee-to-green performance last week at The Arnold Palmer Invitational. He gained 10.1 strokes in that metric while losing almost 6 strokes on the greens. Steele finished in 26th-place last week. If he had a slightly better performance on the greens, he likely finishes in the top 10.
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