RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We head back to Muirfield Village for a second straight week, this time with a stacked field to crown the winner of the Memorial Tournament. Hideki Matsuyama was one birdie away from hitting a nice payout for us last week, so let's try to seal the deal this time around. Take a look below at the props I like best this week in Dublin, Ohio.
Using my PGA DFS and betting research for both DraftKings and handicapping, I'll look into some of the Monkey Knife Fight prop bets for the Workday Charity Open to see which posted numbers make sense to take a stand on. You can use this advice to place your own wagers on MKF. As always, send any questions, comments, or banter my way on Twitter. You can find me @BellRoto.
Now let's get to some PGA Monkey Knife Fight prop bet picks for the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club!
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Pick 1: More or Less (2.5x Prize)
Birdies or Better: Jon Rahm MORE than 18.5
Just like last week, Rahm doesn't have to play incredible golf to reach 19 birdies or better. The course should play tougher this time, but I think Rahm is figuring things out. His fourth round was extremely encouraging, and his above-average length off the tee and Par 5 scoring should allow him to rack up birdies even if there are some bogeys to go along with them.
Birdies or Better: Webb Simpson LESS than 18.5
Webb is a solid player, and his form has been very good lately. That being said, Muirfield Village is no walk in the park. The penal rough should make things difficult if his off-the-tee game wavers at all. Even at shorter tracks, Simpson relied on putting over hot irons to score. The longer irons and dry greens will make things tough, even if he hits his fairways. I don't see Simpson going low this weekend.
Pick 2: Rapidfire (8x Prize)
More Birdies or Better: Justin Thomas over Bryson DeChambeau (+1.5)
Justin Thomas showed us how lethal a great all-around game like his can be last week at Muirfield, going three rounds without a bogey. While he did stagger on Sunday and choked away what would've been his 13th win on tour, I think we can expect another 20 birdies or better this week. Meanwhile, this course will be the first that truly penalizes the new Bryson if his drives and iron shots are not on target. If he gets too aggressive, he'll pay the price and won't be able to get birdies out of the rough. I think JT outplays him this time around.
More Birdies or Better: Jon Rahm over Webb Simpson (+0.5)
See analysis above...
More Birdies or Better: Hideki Matsuyama (+0.5) over Jason Day
This is more of a play against Day than one for Matsuyama. I think 15 birdies is a realistic expectation for Deki, as he had 17 last week on slower greens. Day played very well for a lot of the Workday Charity Open, but we've seen the bad side of him recently too. I think the tougher conditions will catch up to him. Matsuyama is simply the better player right now.
More Birdies or Better: Tony Finau (+0.5) over Gary Woodland
Woodland ended up having a great week at the Workday, finishing T5. However, a handful of bomb putts and chip-ins had a lot to do with that. His driving accuracy has still been shaky, and I think that will cost him more this week. Finau isn't in the best of form, but his long iron ability will really shine if he can find fairways. I think this is pretty close to a toss-up, so I'll take the extra (+0.5) and see what happens!
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