Rest of Season Outfielder Rankings (May Update)

The calendar's turned to May and today we'll look to the outfield for the next part of our Rest-of-Season rankings update and analysis. RotoBaller writers Nick Mariano, Pierre Camus, Bill Dubiel and Scott Engel want you to crush the competition and know that rankings can't end on draft day. Check out our fantasy baseball rankings dashboard for the very latest rankings which are continually updated.

Outfield is deep enough that these rankings go 155 deep with 14 tiers. Not all these players belong on fantasy rosters necessarily but there could be hidden value even toward the end of the list. It's too early to see much movement near the top but you'll notice several key risers and fallers toward the middle portion.

Throw those preseason ADPs out along with any preconceived notion of how these outfielders were going to perform - we've taken into account injuries, team context, Statcast metrics, and gameplay observations in order to provide you with the most current rankings possible. Without any more delay, let's break down the 2019 outfielder rest-of-season rankings for May.

Outfield Tiered Ranks - 5x5 Mixed Leagues (May)

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was recently named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season. You can see his secret sauce below! Additionally, industry legend Scott Engel recently joined the RotoBaller team and provides his insights as well. Scott is an FSWA Hall Of Famer and award winner.

Rankings Analysis - Top Tiers

Tier One

Only one month into the season and we have a developing situation in the top tier. Mookie Betts was not only the unanimous #2 overall player regardless of position before the 2019 season kicked off, he was even taken ahead of Mike Trout in some drafts. Now, Christian Yelich has muscled his way to the second spot and has been more valuable than Trout to this point. If not for a five-day absence due to back soreness, he'd probably be ahead of Cody Bellinger as the top player in all of fantasy. Is it possible he keeps up this ridiculous pace? I'm done doubting him at this point so let's go with yes.

As far as Betts, his metrics are all above average, he's batting .297, and there is no obvious reason for concern. Well, the fact he's only attempted one steal could cause a small heart murmur but the team is turning things around after a sluggish start and he should do the same. Chalk it up to World Series hangover.

Tier Two

With the dark void that is first base, players like Cody Bellinger and Rhys Hoskins have no business occupying an OF spot on your roster. But since we're on the topic, let's talk buy/sell. Bellinger's April defies logic and he's due to regress eventually. Does that mean you should sell now while you can? Not unless you happen to have another great option at first base, which you likely don't. Hoskins has quietly amassed 10 HR in 32 games and could easily reach 50 without drawing much notice. Resist temptation to part ways with players that possess the ceiling to at least stay close to their incredulous paces.

Remember the Bryce Harper drama? So far the Phils have gotten a .233 hitter who's striking out a career-high 29.3% of the time. We know he's trying hard to impress the Phillie faithful, so there is going to be a power surge mid-summer once he starts to relax. Even at his worst, Harper is doing fine in the R+RBI categories. He may not have an MVP season but he'll be fine.

New Boston resident and Red Sox fan by necessity Nick Mariano is paradoxically the lowest on Andrew Benintendi's rest-of-season projection. I happen to be highest on him because I know the power is in there waiting to come out. Benintendi has been getting on base at a higher clip than last year with an impressive .380 OBP but only has three homers so far. He's never been an exit velocity monster, so his 25th percentile ranking there is no surprise. He can still leave the yard at high rate because he's got launch angle figured out, ranking in the top-60 in Sweet Spot%. 30 homers might be a stretch but if he approaches 25 along with 20 steals and a .300 average, that puts him among the best fantasy players.

Juan Soto is no longer the shiny new toy - that mantle has been taken up by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and now Nick Senzel. That doesn't make him less valuable though. Soto is on pace for a 30-HR, 100-RBI season and is hitting the ball harder than last year (43.8% Hard%). A barrage of injuries to the Nats lineup, including Soto himself, has stalled his progress but he remains a firm top-20 OF with top-10 potential.

Tier Three

I'm not discounting Stanton's value too much based on reports that he may return within a week or so. If he can stay healthy the rest of the way, Stanton's ceiling is... well, we already know. He may not reach 59 homers ever again but we haven't seen the best of him in Yankee Stadium yet.

Starling Marte was struggling mightily until his three-run shot in the 13th inning against Oakland the other day. Expected stats show that he's been unlucky though. Before that game, he was at the very bottom of the xBA-BA leaderboard, meaning he'd been underperforming. He still sits at -.077 with a .288 xBA despite a .211 average. If more base hits start falling in, it may be more than a matter of getting hot, it could be natural regression.

Rankings Analysis - Middle Tiers

Tier Four

It's time for Michael Conforto to take the next step forward and lead the Mets offensively. Except his role has been filled instead by rookie Pete Alonso. For his part, Conforto has greatly improved his plate discipline with a near-even BB/K split and career-best .405 OBP thus far. That's not good enough for fantasy owners though. With no speed and little hope for a batting average close to .300, Conforto will have to pick up the power pace. The King clearly has faith, ranking him 60 overall. Bill doesn't have him as a top-100 player and I'm closer in agreement to him.

We're all buying into the Domingo Santana resurgence because we've seen him do this before, back in 2017. He's got 32 RBI in 35 games and has even chipped in four steals, making him a legit 30/20 threat by year's end. Mr. Engel is not as optimistic but Santana still lands inside the fourth tier, ahead of preseason darlings like David Dahl, Victor Robles and Yasiel Puig.

Tier Five

Speaking of Puig, it's been a much rougher transition out of L.A. than expected. The distractions aren't there anymore but neither is the lineup support. Scooter Gennett hasn't played this year, Jose Peraza is barely playable, and Joey Votto is toast. That said, it's clear that things can only get better in Cincy, as Nick Senzel's arrival has already been a boon to the team. Gennett should be back soon and Votto has got to pick it up at some point, right? Puig is making quality contact, when he actually makes contact. He's just swinging at everything right now because he's pressing. My ranking seems very optimistic but I still believe the Reds will turn things around and the ballpark will do him favors over the course of a full season.

We're all over the place on Cutch, with Nick as the low man with a ranking of 158 and Scott as the most bullish at 74. We mostly know what we're getting from him at this point - an average in the .250s, about 20 HR, 75-80 RBI and solid run-scoring numbers. The key might be his lack of steals. If he were a lock to swipe 14 bases again, that gives him a boost in roto leagues. Unfortunately, he's got one on the season and there's no reason to think it'll increase much. The Phillies have attempted the second-fewest steals this year at 0.33 per game, barely ahead of Toronto. Cutch is a decent fourth outfielder with a reliable floor but not much more at this point.

Byron Buxton truthers, stay true! He's hanging onto fantasy relevance thanks to seven steals and 16 runs scored but needs to turn some of those doubles (14) into homers. I'd argue he's more valuable in points leagues but with just seven walks in 30 games, that's not quite true. He's got career-bests with a 93.1 MPH exit velocity, 50.7% hard-hit rate and 22.4 degree launch angle so there is definitely hope for us believers.

Tier Six

I'm not sure if I've written enough about Nomar Mazara yet, so here's a little more. His numbers look pedestrian (.233/.288/.448, six HR, 21 RBI) but there are some promising underlying metrics. Mazara is underachieving on his xBA and xSLG big time, as both are above the 84th percentile. He could easily put together a run and watch his value climb during the summer months.

Another underachiver, Franmil Reyes, is starting to get attention for his moonshot home runs. He should be seeing great gains in other areas too. The other day, I highlighted him as one of the biggest xBA underperformers. Just click here for all the details on him, Mazara and others. Needless to say, you should be buying Reyes wherever possible.

Trey Mancini got off to a solid start and has kept up his average at .328. While most remember last year's dismal .248 mark and his association with the lowly Orioles of 2018, we should recall that he hit .293 in 2017 and has hit 24 homers each of the last two years. He's improved his walk rate each year and is at a prime age (27) to break out. Now that I think about it, I really should raise him up in my rankings...

Rankings Analysis - Lower Tiers

Tier Seven

A.J. Pollock's latest injury is an odd one. It's an infection gone bad that will require treatment, rest, and monitoring. While it sounds good that it's nothing structural, what worries me is the fact it occurred in his reconstructed elbow and they had to "take out the hardware" to treat him. Given his history, I'm not counting on Pollock to return very soon. Not as if he was ultra-effective in L.A. anyway.

There will never be a time that Shin Soo-Choo isn't undervalued. His numbers don't jump off the page but a .322 average, 23 runs, and 14 RBI will play in 5x5 leagues. He's posting a 51.1% hard-hit rate and provides a nice floor as a third or fourth outfielder.

Is there any luster left on Brandon Nimmo's draft value? He's down to .192, has driven in nine runs over 33 games and his expected stats are all in the bottom quarter percentile. I've never bought him as a fantasy asset and it's clear he's still living off the fact he plays in the biggest market.

Ramon Laureano is getting dropped in a lot of leagues now that his average has sunk to .221. His walk rate is nearly half of last year's 9.3% and he's swinging at a lot more first pitches. The good news is that his line drive is almost to 30%, so there's hope that he turns things around. He still possesses a high power-speed ceiling that could bring value off the waiver wire soon enough. I wouldn't be surprised if he jumps back into everyone's top-200 by mid-season.

Tier Eight and lower

When searching for outfielders with upside in the lower tiers, I've got my eye on Alex Verdugo, Jake Bauers, and of course Yordan Alvarez. Verdugo will keep playing every day and play a more prominent role with Pollock out. He's already got an advanced hit tool and great eye; the power could follow suit. Bauers has been a mild disappointment, but I would bet on his power-speed potential over less-exciting players like Jaso Heyward or Ian Desmond.

Early-season surprises like Dwight Smith, Leury Garcia and Brian Goodwin will draw skepticism because of a lack of track record but once we get past the one-month mark, anyone who is still producing deserves the benefit of the doubt. Garcia can provide cheap steals, Goodwin has some power, and Smith has a balanced profile.

I had such high hopes for Mallex Smith this year... I'm willing to buy him back as a fantasy asset but for now he doesn't need to be stashed. If the Mariners don't feel the need to keep him on their active roster, neither should you.

One of my favorite sleepers from last year is finally coming through. Raimel Tapia is finally getting regular at-bats and showing what he can do. There could be a full-blown youth movement in Colorado soon, so keep him in mind as more than just a streamer.

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