Welcome back, RotoBallers! A three-month hiatus has thrown a monkey wrench into 'One and Done' contests this season. Anyone that built a strategy for how they were going to approach their year now has to restart from scratch, and we do have some definite pitfalls to encounter with the uncertainty of what to expect.
In theory, it probably makes things equally challenging for everyone involved, but that isn't to say that we still can't try to gain an edge by using the information that we do have presented to us weekly to our advantage. One way to do that is by tracking ownership percentages on PGA DFS sites. That can generally give us a good feel for what the industry is thinking as a whole when entering an event. It is essential to avoid viewing all popular plays as being wrong, but we can use the data to formulate our path forward through these somewhat unpredictable times.
We are still early enough in the season that I wouldn't think too outside the box quite yet, but the further behind we fall in a contest, the more aggressive we will need to be. Vice versa, someone with a lead might be able to play ABC strategy to get themselves across the finish line. These are things to keep in mind as the year progresses, but let's get straight to what everyone came here to say, this week's 'One and Done' picks.
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One And Done Staff Picks Overview
Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the weekly PGA “One and Done” column will be back for a second season.
In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!
For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
One and Done Selections
Joe Nicely - Rickie Fowler
Alternate - Jordan Spieth
Well...here we are. It’s been a long wait since golf was halted after the first round of The Players Championship. I’m sure it was the safe and prudent thing to do, but selfishly, I’m still pissed because I had first-round leader Hideki Matsuyama in every format imaginable, including this OAD contest. Moving on…
This is by far the strongest field we’ve ever seen turn up at Colonial Country Club and there are OAD options galore as a result. The trouble is, we don’t know how the vast majority of these guys are going to handle the unprecedented layoff they’re returning from. For that reason, I won’t be using one of the “Super Elite” players that are available.
I had honestly fully planned on pulling the trigger on Jordan Spieth this week (and I will still be betting him), but the buzz on Spiethy has spiraled out of control in the run-up to this tournament. Instead of a chalky Spieth, I’m pivoting to Rickie Fowler, a jack-of-all-trades type of player that should perform well at Colonial.
We don’t know what most of these guys have been up to, but through the magic of social media, we know that Rickie has been very active during the break, playing rounds with Justin Thomas and competing in the TaylorMade charity match at Seminole a few weeks ago. Colonial used to be a regular stop for Rickie - he’s had some strong outings on this layout - and I think the combination of course experience and staying active during the layoff will give him a leg up this week. - Joe Nicely
Yearly Earnings - $2,211,949
Yearly Cuts Made - 8/10
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Spencer Aguiar - Matt Kuchar
Alternate - Patrick Reed
I got off to a fast start this season by making the first nine cuts of the year but faltered in the last trackable event when Tony Finau floundered his way to a missed cut result in Florida. Maybe the time off was much-needed for my psyche because I couldn't tell you why, how or what caused things to go array for me at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but I do know that I feel motivated to get the train back up to full speed.
I believe there are a few routes we can go down this week. I prefer the idea of leaving my big guns for another time of the year, but depending on who you still have left, Tony Finau, Matt Kuchar and Patrick Reed all lead off my list of somewhat conservative choices to pinpoint in week one. To me, it comes down to attempting to find a logistical event down the road, and if you can't pinpoint a location that you are dying to use said golfer later in the season, Colonial becomes a much more robust option since you don't take cards out of your deck moving forward.
Probably for the greater good because of my past luck with Finau, the American is off-limits for me in Texas, which made my decision rather simple in deciding to go with Matt Kuchar. The RBC Heritage does jump off the page for the 41-year-old golfer next weekend, but it is challenging to overlook the number one player in my model at a venue where he will gain less traction from the community, yet still have possibly as good of a chance to find success as he would at Harbour Town.
The 17th-ranked golfer in the world is a veteran who specializes in fairways gained, bogey avoidance and strokes gained putting, and his often mistake-free style should pay dividends at a venue that is difficult during an average year but even further amplified in terms of the challenge with all the red flags entering the week. -Spencer Aguiar
Yearly Earnings - $2,723,331
Yearly Cuts Made - 9/10
Josh Bennett - Patrick Reed
Alternate - Jordan Spieth
We’ve already heard and will continue to hear about how “unknown” this week is and how random the results will probably be because of all the weird circumstances. As different as things are, there are a few knowns that I think make Reed an easy (and probably safe) pick whose name isn’t Jordan Spieth.
History at this event says that good putters and good players around the green usually play well here. Reed has been mentioned by a handful of players on tour as being one of the best players around the greens they’ve seen, and he’s statistically a good putter. If that’s the criteria, I don’t really need to look any further.
In addition, I think it’s well known by now that all he does is eat, sleep, and breathe golf, so there’s no question he has been grinding for this whole break. Of all the questions around who has and hasn’t been playing and practicing, there’s no reason to question if Reed has been swinging clubs. It wouldn’t surprise me if he’s specifically been practicing every tee shot for this tournament just to give him the very best chance to say he won the first tournament after the break ended (and maybe the only tournament if things go sideways after this week??).
People will very likely default to Spieth with his history combined with his putting and around the green game, but I think Reed is a much better play with his skillset, plus that part where he’s actually played decent golf on the PGA Tour a few times in the last couple years.
Yearly Earnings - $2,347,535
Yearly Cuts Made - 8/10
Running Totals
Joe Nicely | Spencer Aguiar | Josh Bennett | |
Sony Open | Webb Simpson $455,400 | Abraham Ancer $27,390 | Webb Simpson $455,400 |
American Express | Sungjae Im $162,475 | Paul Casey $63,399 | Sungjae Im $162,475 |
Farmers Insurance | Tiger Woods $181,875 | Hideki Matsuyama $22,950 | Jon Rahm $817,500 |
Waste Management | Jon Rahm $170,768 | Webb Simpson $1,314,000 | Hideki Matsuyama $97,212 |
Pebble Beach | Jason Day $382,200 | Patrick Cantlay $181,350 | Jason Day $382,200 |
Genesis Invitational | Bubba Watson $0 | Dustin Johnson $234,825 | Dustin Johnson $234,825 |
WGC Mexico | Dustin Johnson $45,500 | Justin Thomas $320,667 | Tommy Fleetwood $125,500 |
Puerto Rico Open | Alex Noren $0 | Jhonattan Vegas $75,750 | Alex Noren $0 |
Honda Classic | Tommy Fleetwood $483,000 | Tommy Fleetwood $483,00 | Louis Oosthuizen $0 |
Arnold Palmer Invitational | Rory McIlroy $330,731 | Tony Finau $0 | Xander Schauffele $72,424 |