NFL Playoff Betting Advice - Bet Smart to Win

I've already laid out my favorite bets for the 2021 NFL Wild Card weekend but it stands to reason that you should be intimately familiar with the terminology before putting down any money on any NFL games.

When it comes to gambling, the most important thing you can do is to manage your budget. Set aside an amount of money that would not affect your daily life, or the lives of your family if you lost it. That amount of money is called your bankroll.

In order to manage your bankroll effectively, follow these simple easier said than done steps.

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Betting Smart

1. Do not risk your entire bankroll. You should never risk more than 50% total for any given slate of games. The reason for this is because gambling successes and failures come in waves. One week you will win eight out of ten bets, and the next week you will lose 11 out of 14. If you have a $500 bankroll and you made ten bets at $50 each, it is very possible that you lose nine of those bets. In that scenario, your bankroll is down to only $90 from the one bet that cashed. A good practice is to never make a bet you can't afford to lose.
2. Don't get cocky. People tend to lose most if not all of their bankroll following a profitable day because, in the mind of the average gambler, every bet they make is a winner when they are on a hot streak. After increasing their bankroll by 40% one day, all they think about is how many more bets they can make. This will inevitably lead to a crushing day of losses because unpredictable things happen in sports all the time. The key is to be able to withstand the crushing losses because the upward swing is usually right around the corner;
3. Do not chase losses. The fastest way to lose your bankroll is to make bets that you would not normally make simply because your earlier bets lost. It happens all the time. You lost 35% of your bankroll earlier in the day on a bad beat so you risk another 35% trying to win it back, and all of a sudden you are down 70% in just a few hours. Be patient. If the bet is not in your favor, do not make the bet;
4. Parlays are a wolf in sheep's clothing. A parlay is when you bet that multiple bets will hit, increasing the odds on the wager and the payout if it cashes. For example, if you bet that Player A will throw two touchdowns or more, you could win $100 on a $50 bet. However, if you bet that Player A and Player B will both throw two touchdowns or more, the odds multiply because both bets have to hit in order for the bet to cash. So you might win $300 on a $50 bet, but if one of the bets does not hit, the entire bet loses. The drastic increase in payout is what makes parlays so tempting, but the unpredictability of sports is what makes most of them losing bets; lastly
5. Do not bet for betting's sake. What I mean by this is do not make a bet on a game or a player prop simply because the game is on TV. Placing bets that are not grounded in sound reason and research gives the advantage to the sportsbooks right out of the gate. I learned very quickly that successful wagering in football did not transfer to successful wagering in soccer and hockey. If you do not know the sport, do not bet on the sport.

Before we get into my favorite wagers for this six-game Wild Card Weekend in the NFL, there are a few gambling terms that you need to know beforehand.

 

Betting Terms to Know

1. The spread/lines. The spread is a way that sportsbooks make betting the score of the game even on both sides by adding or subtracting points from the final score of the game based on who is favored to win and by how much. If the Packers are playing the Jaguars, betting the Packers to win the game is free money. However, will the Packers win the game by seven, 10, 14, or 17 points? Let's say the spread is Packers -13.5. This means that after the game is over, subtract 13.5 points from the Packer's score and if they still have the higher score, the bet cashes. In other words, the Packers need to win by 14. On the opposite side, if you bet the Jaguars +13.5, then the bet cashes as long as the Jaguars do not lose by 14 points or more.Wagers can also be based on lines made by the sportsbooks where the bettor places a wager on whether the total will go over or under the line. For example, if the line on the Packers game in our hypothetical is set at 48.5, you are betting on whether the combined score of both teams will be over or under 48.5 points. Lines are also found for player props. This is where you bet on the statistical performance of a player for that game. For example, if the line on Davante Adams' receiving yards is 99.5, then you are betting whether or not he will have 100 yards or less.
2. The odds. Odds in gambling does not mean the chances of winning. The odds tell you how much you need to bet in order to get the return you want. When the odds increase or decrease, it increases or decreases the payout if the bet is a winner. For example, typical odds on a bet are -112. This means that you need to bet $112 to win $100. That $12 is how the books make their money on winning bets. If you lose the bet, you lost $112 to the sportsbook, but if you win the bet they only lose $100. On the flip side, you will also see positive odds like +120, which tells you how much you will win if you bet $100.The odds are important because it tells you which way most of the money is leaning and what is most likely to happen. If the books and the public believe that there is a 50% chance the bet will hit then the odds will be around -112. However, if the books and the public believe there is a 70% chance the bet will hit, then the odds will be much worse since the bet is more likely to be a winner and more people are likely to bet it. For example, Aaron Rodgers threw two or more touchdowns in 14 out of 16 games, so a bet on him to throw at least two touchdowns might have odds set at -275. This means that you have to risk losing $275 to win $100. However, a bet on him to throw at least four touchdowns might have odds set at +165 since it is much less likely that he throws four touchdowns. This means if you bet $100 then you will win $165, but your chances of losing the $100 are greater.
   Heavy negative odds dissuade bettors from wagering on bets that are likely to hit because of the unpredictability of sports. It is usually not worth it to risk so much for such a small return. Heavy positive odds encourage bettors to wager on bets that are less likely to hit because they want the most return on their wagers and the sportsbooks want the most bets on things that are less likely to happen.
3. Push. A push is simply when the game ends on the exact spread or line. If the spread is -7 and the favorite wins by a touchdown, then the bet is a push because they won by seven. This means that you did not win or lose the bet so your wager is refunded. A push is a win in the gambling world because, in plain terms, it is not a loss. If a bet in a parlay pushes, most sportsbooks simply remove the bet from the parlay and recalculate the odds with the remaining bets.
4. Money line (ML). The money line is a wager on one team to win outright. There is no spread therefore the margin of victory does not matter. However, what does change drastically when betting on the money line is the odds. Using our example above, the Packers winning against the Jaguars is almost a guarantee, so to dissuade wagers on the Packers simply to win, the sportsbooks set the odds at -1400. That means you need to risk losing $1400 to only win $100.Therefore, betting the money line on a drastic favorite is usually not worth it. However, when there are evenly matched teams and the spread is no higher than one to three points, the money line becomes an attractive bet because it eliminates the margin of victory needed to win the bet. Let's say the Cardinals are playing the Buccaneers and the spread is set at Buccaneers -2.5. This tells you that the sportsbooks and the public believe the Buccaneers are going to win the game, but that it will likely be close. You could bet the spread at -112 that the Buccaneers will win by three, or you could eliminate the risk that they only win by one or two and bet the money line at -165. You will have to risk a little more to win the same amount, but it is a safer bet because even if the Buccaneers win by a single point, you win the bet.
5. Teaser. A teaser is when you move the spread or the line of multiple wagers by the same amount, and all of the wagers have to hit. Essentially it is a parlay of multiple bets, but you get to swing the bets more favorably to you from the opening numbers. For example, using the Buccaneers example above, let's say the spread is Buccaneers -2.5 and the line on the game is 48.5 points. A six-point teaser is most common and it adjusts the spread and the line by six points in either direction. However, both bets have to hit. In this case, the Buccaneers are expected to win and it is expected to be a relatively high scoring game, but you are not sure if they will cover the 2.5 points or if enough points will be scored in the game to reach 49.A teaser allows you to improve your chances by moving the numbers. Here, you would tease the Buccaneers spread six points from -2.5 to +3.5, and you would tease the total from 48.5 to 42.5 and take the over. Now, you win the bet if the Buccaneers do not lose by four or more points and the total score of the game is 43 points or higher. The odds on a teaser are usually the same as the original spread or total because even though the numbers are more favorable to you, both bets have to hit for the entire bet to cash, similar to a parlay.

When it comes to betting the NFL, the spread is everything because certain margins of victory are much more common than others. The most common margins of victory in the NFL are three points, four points, seven points, and any combination of each. This allows you to gain a slight edge on the sportsbooks because you should either fade bets with uncommon spreads, or you could take alternate spreads to increase the chances of the bet hitting. For example, when betting the favorite, you want to take spreads of -6.5, -3.5, and -2.5 because it is a winning bet if the team wins by a field goal (-2.5), a touchdown (-6.5), or the difference between them (-3.5). When betting underdogs you want to take spreads of +3.5, +4.5, and +7.5 because it is a winning bet if they lose by a field goal (+3.5), a touchdown (+7.5), or the difference between them (+4.5).

Additionally, if you want to bet a spread on the game, but it is an uncommon margin of victory, most sportsbooks provide alternate spreads of virtually any number you would like, adjusting the odds depending on if the alternate line is more favorable to you or not. For example, if you want to bet the favorite with a spread of -5.5, you have three options. You could accept the spread and bet it as is, you could improve your odds by making the spread higher and less likely to hit, or you could decrease your odds by making the spread lower and more likely to hit.

In our example, the odds on the -5.5 spread would be -112 and the favorite would have to win by six or more. If you think the favorite is going to cover the -5.5 then chances are they will win by a touchdown, so it is wise to make the line -6.5 to increase the odds. If you think the favorite will win by only a field goal, it is wise to bet the underdog at +5.5, or the safer bet would be to make the spread -2.5 with worse odds because the bet is a winner if the favorite wins by a field goal, which is more likely than winning by a touchdown in a close game.

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