The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 23

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

We have less than four weeks remaining of the regular season, and at this stage, no one should be considered undroppable. That still doesn't mean we should be dumping our third-round pick to waivers because he's hit .150 over the last fortnight. But we do need to look a bit more closely at some studs, which is exactly what we are doing this week.

As we near the end of the season, we need to consider making moves with specific targets in mind, whether it's to make up ground or to hold on to the top spot. If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit or reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates are taken from Yahoo! and reflect when this piece was written, while ADP is taken from NFBC.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Charlie Blackmon – OF, Colorado Rockies – 75% rostered

Blackmon hasn't had a bad season, especially given how he had appeared to be dropping off completely in the previous two seasons. In 122 games, Blackmon has 16 homers, 74 RBI, 57 runs, and three stolen bases while hitting .262/.313/420.

Blackmon ranks as the 118th player on Yahoo! this season which is a good return on his ADP (~232). But over the last 30 days, Blackmon ranks 629th on Yahoo! mainly down to not hitting a homer since July 27th and only scoring six runs since August 01st (just two coming in the last 30 days).

The main reason for putting Blackmon in the Worth Dropping and Replacing section is due to his remaining schedule. In the final three and a half weeks of the season, the Rockies play seven games at home (all in the week commencing September 19th) and 14 games on the road.

If we look at Blackmon's home and road splits, we can see why this is such a big factor.

Split	PA	HR	RBI	R	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Home	281	9	40	40	.285	.338	.461	.345	93
Road	244	7	34	17	.236	.284	.373	.287	82

Considering the remaining schedule Blackmon faces, the lack of power shown in recent weeks likely carries on until the end of the season. I'm sure he will homer again this year but you're only really playing Blackmon for one week of the remaining three and a half weeks of the regular season.

Verdict: In deeper leagues, benching Blackmon through next week and starting him during the following week when he has seven home games makes sense. But you're only looking to start him for less than a third of what's left of the season so dropping him makes perfect sense. The same can be said for other Rockies hitters with such disappointing road numbers.

Cody Bellinger – OF, Los Angeles Dodgers – 72% rostered

I think we can all now agree that we're far enough removed from 2019 that expecting Bellinger to come close to repeating his MVP season is a true baseball fantasy. Even the 2017 and 2018 versions would be a huge upgrade on the last three seasons. In 122 games, Bellinger is hitting .197/.259/.378 with 17 homers, 55 RBI, 61 runs, and 12 stolen bases.

The counting stats aren't too bad but the batting average sucks any value out of them and has left Bellinger as the 212th ranked player on Yahoo!. Things haven't improved for Bellinger as the season has progressed. He hasn't hit over .200 in a month since May and has only one stolen base since August 1st.

The above graphic shows Bellinger's wOBA depending on the pitch location and it's fair to say he really struggles with pitches up in the zone. If we see a compilation of some swings and misses on pitches up in the zone, it helps explain why Bellinger has these struggles.

I'm no hitting expert but his swing makes me wonder how he ever makes contact. It's something he has tweaked and adjusted multiple times coming into new seasons but given his numbers, whatever he's been doing hasn't worked.

Bellinger isn't in a strict platoon nor has he been dropped but is finding himself on the bench a bit more frequently, having sat on the bench twice in the five Dodgers games this week. And when he does start, he's hitting almost exclusively in the number eight or nine spots of the lineup.

Verdict: Bellinger just hasn't been able to get close to recreating his MVP season and things haven't improved as the season progressed. Bellinger's defense is the only thing keeping him in the lineup regularly but for fantasy purposes, he's offering very little and that's been the story for some time.

Jon Berti – 2B/3B/OF, Miami Marlins – 52% rostered

Berti is the ultimate one-trick pony. Granted, his one trick (speed) is very impressive but it's all he's offered this season. In 80 games, Berti is hitting .254/.342/.357 with three homers, 21 RBI, 36 runs, and 32 stolen bases. His Statcast profile is pretty eye-catching as a result.

That tells us almost everything we need to know. Berti is able to get himself on base and when he does, he runs. Just don't expect much else. He leads the league in stolen bases despite playing between 49 and 55 fewer games than the next four on the list.

One problem with rostering Berti has been the inconsistency of his stolen bases. After tallying 18 steals in June (26 games), he's only picked up 10 stolen bases since (34 games). Missing four weeks with a groin strain didn't help with that of course and he missed a few games with a hip issue last week.

The good news is since his return from the IL on August 12th, he's started as the Marlins' leadoff or number two hitter. The bad news is that he plays for the Marlins, who rank last in runs scored (69) in that time, further limiting Berti to being a one-trick pony.

Since his return from a groin injury, Berti is hitting .213/.284/313 while going 4-for-5 in stolen base attempts, making me wonder if he is fully healthy or just being a bit cautious following his issues. Whatever the reason for a slowdown on stolen bases, it's seriously harming Berti's fantasy value.

Verdict: If you picked up Berti, it was purely for stolen bases and anything else he gets you is gravy. His speed is certainly capable of winning someone a fantasy league but if you don't need stolen bases for whatever reason in your league, Berti would be atop of my drop list.

 

Hold For Now

Sandy Alcantara - SP, Miami Marlins - 99% rostered

Alcantara is the favorite for the NL Cy Young award so it seems strange to include him on The Cut List. And while I'm not condoning anyone in any league dropping him, there have been some fantasy managers questioning if he's hit a wall and his recent struggles will remain until the end of the season.

On the year, Alcantara has a 12-7 W-L record, 2.43 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 177 Ks in 28 starts (196.2 IP). On Thursday, he completed his 20th quality start of the season (tied fourth-most), and just two weeks ago, he had a complete game against the Dodgers, allowing just one run.

But if we look back over his last four starts, Alcantara has an ERA of 6.08, and going back over his last eight starts, he has a 4.13 ERA. It's been very up-and-down recently for Alcantara and the below graphic showing his rolling wOBA highlights how things have been regressing recently.

Over his last eight starts, Alcantara not only has the complete game against the Dodgers but also a complete game shutout against the Reds and a seven shutout innings performance against the Padres. That's the good. But there's also been the bad.

Mixed in among his last eight starts is a six earned runs allowed start against the Braves (5.0 IP), six earned runs in just 3.2 IP against the Dodgers (his shortest outing of the season), and two four-run performances, one against the Mets (5.0 IP) and one against the Phillies (7.2 IP).

One of the reasons I'm not too concerned about the recent struggles is despite the 6.08 ERA in his last four starts, they combine for a 3.45 xFIP and 3.38 SIERA. He also has a 23.8% K% in those starts (better than his 23.0% K% on the season) and a 3.8% BB% (better than his 6.1% BB% on the season).

Alcantara is finishing up on a special season, in which he's thrown five complete games and has 18 outings in which he's completed at least seven innings. Twelve of them have seen Alcantara allow less than two earned runs. In an era where starting pitchers seldom go deep into games, Alcantara is something of a pitching unicorn.

We've already covered how bad the Marlins offense has been recently, which will cap the number of wins Alcantara will pick up. But I'm not going to turn my back on what is more than two years of excellence in which Alcantara has a 2.84 ERA since 2020 (444.1 IP). Unless the Marlins decide not to push Alcantara anymore, I'm holding.

Rafael Devers – 3B, Boston Red Sox – 99% rostered

Devers currently ranks 36th overall on Yahoo!, which is sixth among third basemen. He's hit .290/.350/.533 with 26 homers, 78 RBI, 75 runs, and two stolen bases (121 games). You might be asking, why am I including him in the article? Especially if you just look at his Statcast profile.

If this were back in July and we had half the season to go, I'd simply ignore any request to cover Devers and preach patience. But, this isn't July, so it at least warrants some analysis. And it's purely down to how he's performed since being activated off the IL in early August.

Since August 2nd, following his activation after a hamstring injury, Devers has hit .203/.275/.353 with four homers, 23 RBI, 13 runs, and no stolen bases (34 games). I'm not going to pretend 34 games is a big sample size but it's enough to be worried he still has some lingering issues from his injury.

The good news is Devers decided to go and hit a grand slam in Saturday's game just as I was looking into his recent slump so maybe his health isn't of concern anymore or he was simply in a bit of a slump. But one game isn't going to deter me from looking at his numbers over the last few weeks.

Devers has started all but two of the Red Sox games since his return from injury so if there is an ongoing problem, the Red Sox don't seem to be trying to protect him. Given they find themselves over 10 games back from a Wild Card spot, if there was a problem, they likely would be shutting him down or putting him back on the IL by now.

Even at this late stage of the season, I wouldn't be able to bring myself to drop Devers. We just have to look at last year and see what Devers did from September 12th until the end of the season; Five homers, 11 RBI, 14 runs, and a stolen base while hitting .315/.375/.562.

Different teammates, a different situation, and a different scenario of course, but it's a reminder of what a healthy Devers can do in a three-week period. Devers did have three consecutive multi-hit games to begin September and a 3-for-5 performance yesterday. So it may turn out to be clutching at straws, but I'm holding on for as long as Devers remains on the field.

Jose Abreu – 1B, Chicago White Sox – 98% rostered

The veteran first baseman has been having another solid and productive season. And after having an ADP of ~78 this preseason, the fact he ranks 55th on Yahoo! this year tells us he's been performing as expected.

The problem has been that fantasy managers have had to put out an APB for Abreu's power as he's not hit a home run since August 3rd. Abreu still has a .331 batting average since then, with 10 RBI and 19 runs, so he has at least been contributing to your teams.

But he ranks 142nd on Yahoo! over the last 30 days, emphasizing how much a lack of power can hurt a player's fantasy production. If we look at his numbers before August 4th and since then, we'll see it's been a prolonged period of missing power.

Period	PA	HR	SLG	wOBA	ISO	HardHit%	Barrel%	K%	BB%
04/08/22 – 08/03/22	445	14	.478	.375	.176	52.8%	10.1%	15.1%	10.6%
08/04/22 – 09/10/22	154	0	.367	.333	.036	45.9%	6.4%	20.8%	6.5%

It's easy to look at the numbers and think Abreu has some kind of nagging injury or has been carrying a problem somewhere. But it's now four years since he was last on the IL and there hasn't been any news or word about an injury or health problem.

Abreu is still hitting third or fourth exclusively for the White Sox and ranks 14th among qualified hitters (164) for batting average since his last homer on August 3rd. His last home run was also his third in four games so it appeared at the time that Abreu was finding his power stroke, making the recent lack of home runs even more confusing.

At least he's made up for it elsewhere and if this is his floor, it's a pretty decent one. I'm not looking to drop Abreu and I'm sure he will break his homerless streak soon. That will be followed by another home run soon after and possibly a handful more before the season ends. Because that's just how baseball works.

 

On the Hot Seat

Joe Ryan – SP, Minnesota Twins – 82% rostered

Ryan has had a solid first full season in the Majors but if you read my preseason Bold Predictions article, you'll forgive me for being a bit disappointed in him. On the season, Ryan has a 10-8 W-L record, 4.05 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 124 Ks in 23 starts (122.1 IP). His Statcast profile paints a picture of a pretty mediocre season.

Part of my prediction has been correct so far, as he leads the Twins in strikeouts. Alas, he has not been a top-25 starting pitcher, ranking 95th on Yahoo! and 59th on the ESPN Player Rater. The significant difference between the two sites comes down to a higher number of relievers qualifying as starters who rank above Ryan on Yahoo!. However I cut it, Ryan won't finish as a top-25 starting pitcher.

Ryan's underlying numbers suggest his ERA is about what it should be, with a 3.81 xERA, 4.46 xFIP, and 4.08 SIERA. And the impressive fastball he flashed last year, that graded between 60-70 (out of 80) as a prospect, has been very good again this year.

The problem Ryan has had is using a reliable secondary pitch, let alone a tertiary one. The below table shows Ryan's numbers for each of his pitches.

Pitch	Usage	BA	xBA	SLG	xSLG	wOBA	xwOBA
Fastball	60.5%	.183	.211	.328	.395	.276	.311
Slider	21.2%	.258	.223	.531	.368	.350	.274
Changeup	12.2%	.269	.266	.538	.443	.374	.339
Curveball	6.0%	.381	.273	.524	.354	.406	.292

Up until July 28th, Ryan had a 2.89 ERA and was looking every bit a star. Then came a 10-run outing against the Padres that elevated his ERA to 3.78. He did recover from that disastrous outing nicely, putting up a 3.25 ERA over his next five starts.

But Ryan's last two starts have seen him allow nine earned runs in just nine innings, leaving fantasy managers wondering if it is time to cut bait with the 26-year-old. And if we look at his workload, it's certainly something that may be playing a factor in his most recent starts.

Ryan completed 123.1 IP in 2019 across three levels, didn't pitch in 2020, and totaled 92.2 IP last year. So he's about to tread into uncharted waters with regard to workload. That adds some uncertainty to the remaining few starts Ryan is scheduled to have but the Twins have been quite careful with Ryan throughout the season.

He missed three weeks earlier in the season on the Covid IL and he's only completed seven innings twice this season, while only topping 100 pitches in an outing seven times. But three of the 100+ pitches thrown outings have come in his last six starts so it's not like the Twins are cutting back his workload.

Ryan's fastball averaged 93.3 MPH in his last start, which was a career-high so I'm not overly concerned about this being a slowdown due to fatigue either. The other good news for Ryan's fantasy managers is he has a pretty good schedule over the remainder of the season.

He's currently lined up to face the Royals, Guardians, Angels, White Sox, and Tigers to close out the season, although he may only make four more starts. Regardless of the total starts he has left, he should get a favorable schedule in the coming three and a half weeks.

The Twins are in a battle for a playoff spot so they can ill afford to not use Ryan and I don't foresee any shutdown or skipped starts, until such time they are mathematically eliminated from a postseason spot. And as such, I'm not dropping Ryan but will be keeping an even closer eye on him in case the recent struggles continue into his next two starts.

 

Reddit Requests

Here are some names from the readers following last weekend's post on Reddit. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature.

Amed Rosario – SS/OF, Cleveland Guardians – 80% rostered

Rosario has had a solid season up to this point and has outperformed his ADP (~166). He's currently ranked as the 74th-best player overall on Yahoo! In 130 games, Rosario has nine homers, 54 RBI, 74 runs, and 13 stolen bases while hitting .277/.309/.395.

If we look at Rosario's hit chart for the year, we can see that many of his hits have been infield singles, and Rosario is set for his sixth straight season of a BABIP over .300. That's part of having a sprint speed in the 96th percentile as Rosario has.

Rosario homered yesterday but had been struggling in the latter part of the season, ranking as the 198th player on Yahoo! over the last 30 days and 494th over the last 14 days. The good news for fantasy owners is Rosario continues to be the Guardians' number two hitter and is now riding a six-game hitting streak since last Sunday.

As mentioned, I don't like basing decisions on small samples but at this stage of the season, small samples do come into play. Rosario has been below league average in recent weeks but if the last few days are to go by, he may be turning things around.

And if we go back to the beginning of August and look at the month as a whole, Rosario hit 50% of his home runs this year in August and his 17 RBI were the most he's tallied in any month this season.

The Guardians have one of the easier schedules remaining and Rosario hitting in front of Jose Ramirez should see him continue to score a solid amount of runs. Hitting second behind Steven Kwan will also help Rosario pick up RBI in the final weeks too.

Despite yesterday's homer, Rosario lacks significant power, and like so many others at this time of the year, keeping Rosario on your roster depends more on your roster constructions and what stats you need at this stage. But he doesn't have a black hole in any of the 5x5 categories so wouldn't be near the top of my drop list.

Gleyber Torres – 2B/SS, New York Yankees – 72% rostered

It shouldn't come as a surprise that Torres has been pretty putrid as a fantasy player in recent weeks, in the same way, any Yankees hitter not named Aaron Judge has been below league average, by some distance in many cases.

Torres' season-long numbers aren't too bad. He has 19 homers, 54 RBI, 61 runs, and seven stolen bases while hitting .238/.291/.413. The batting average and OBP are set to be career-lows but given he had an ADP of ~152 and is currently ranked 159th overall on Yahoo!, he has actually matched expectations.

But if we compare the second-half numbers with the first-half, we will see how poorly Torres has hit since the All-Star break.

Split	PA	HR	RBI	R	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+
1st half	315	14	41	44	5	.268	.325	.484	130
2nd half	185	5	13	17	2	.189	.232	.297	50

In a seemingly desperate bid to get their offense going, the Yankees have tinkered with their lineup drastically in recent days, to the point that Isiah Kiner-Falefa hit clean-up on Thursday. But Torres has remained as the number three hitter for most of this week.

Hitting anywhere near Judge is a boost to your fantasy value but Torres has been so bad for so long, that it's hard to stick with him and expect good results. He's been well below a league-average hitter for two months and I'm surprised he's still rostered in as many leagues as he is given he's been droppable for a while.

Tanner Scott – RP, Miami Marlins – 45% rostered

While the Marlins' offense has been the main letdown (27th in runs scored with 488), their bullpen has also been far from stellar, with a collective 4.07 ERA, ranking 19th. And Scott has contributed to that, with a 4-5 W-L record, 4.36 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 75 Ks, and 19 saves (53.2 IP).

Scott has been the predominant closer for the Marlins and has accounted for five of their seven saves since August 1st. But the lack of save opportunities with the Marlins does cap his fantasy value while his alarming 15.5% BB% (first percentile) continues to get him into trouble.

In the last 50 days, Scott has made 13 appearances (13.0 IP) and has only allowed earned runs in three of those outings. All three were the appearances in which Scott walked more than one hitter. Scott didn't allow a run in outings where he walked fewer than two hitters. Limiting free passes has been crucial for Scott.

On Friday, Scott was called up to pitch the seventh inning, ran into trouble, and was bailed out by Steven Okert before Dylan Floro picked up the save. That made it three consecutive appearances for Scott in which he's been brought in to pitch the seventh inning.

Scott is in the bottom tier of closers given his propensity to walk batters, the lack of save opportunities, and his recent usage suggesting he's not even at the top of his team's committee. His ERA and WHIP won't alter your ratios much at this stage of the season and Scott might not even pick up another save this year, leaving him droppable.

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