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Welcome to the Week 3 Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks, where we take a look weekly at where the top 101 SPs stand moving forward in this strange sprint season. You can check out my weekly Top 65 Relief Pitcher Baller Ranks as well.
David Emerick rolled out an introduction to our Baller Ranks here, and also dropped his weekly Top 200 Hitter Baller Ranks today -- I suggest you read for a full explanation of our purpose, but the TL;DR is here we're providing a one-stop-shop for SP and hitter valuation. We'll explore value produced to-date, their current standing, and provide context with analysis.
And for those who want stats like the usual 5x5 categories, strikeout rates, Called + Swinging Strike rates, xwOBA and more on a decked-out spreadsheet, we've got you covered - you can view the full Week 3 Top 101 SP Baller Ranks core sheet here.
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Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 3
| Rank | $ | Tier | Player | EV | $PV | Trend | Notes |
| 1 | 43.0 | 1 | Gerrit Cole | 1.1 | 43.0 | 0.0 ▬ | New uniform, same dominant Cole. Two early W's, thanks NYY. |
| 2 | 37.0 | 1 | Jacob deGrom | 4.0 | 37.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 3 | 34.0 | 1 | Max Scherzer | 3.4 | 34.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Neck looks fine, big K's. Overlook early NYY matchup. |
| 4 | 33.0 | 1 | Shane Bieber | 8.7 | 26.0 | 7.0 ▲ | Shown SP1 stuff in first two turns. |
| 5 | 31.0 | 1 | Mike Clevinger | -1.5 | 25.0 | 6.0 ▲ | |
| 6 | 28.0 | 2 | Jack Flaherty | 2.7 | 28.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 7 | 26.0 | 2 | Walker Buehler | -0.2 | 33.0 | -7.0 ▼ | Limited workload early drops him from top tier. |
| 8 | 26.0 | 2 | Luis Castillo | 6.0 | 20.0 | 6.0 ▲ | |
| 9 | 25.0 | 2 | Patrick Corbin | 1.6 | 19.0 | 6.0 ▲ | |
| 10 | 23.0 | 2 | Carlos Carrasco | 3.1 | 11.0 | 12.0 ▲ | Preseason discount amid opt-out worries paying dividends. |
| 11 | 22.0 | 2 | Lance Lynn | 4.9 | 13.0 | 9.0 ▲ | Last season's gains appear here to stay. |
| 12 | 20.0 | 2 | Tyler Glasnow | 0.6 | 14.0 | 6.0 ▲ | Often looks amazing, but had shoddy command vs. BAL. |
| 13 | 19.0 | 3 | Lucas Giolito | 0.0 | 15.0 | 4.0 ▲ | |
| 14 | 19.0 | 3 | Yu Darvish | 3.8 | 19.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Rough command in first turn; looked like an ace the second. |
| 15 | 17.0 | 3 | Zack Greinke | 0.4 | 14.0 | 3.0 ▲ | Second start had him perfect into the sixth, he'll be OK. |
| 16 | 16.0 | 3 | Clayton Kershaw | 0.0 | 23.0 | -7.0 ▼ | Return of the Kersh slated for Sunday. |
| 17 | 15.0 | 3 | Stephen Strasburg | 0.0 | 26.0 | -11.0 ▼ | Nerve issue sinking stock, nearing return to mound. |
| 18 | 14.5 | 3 | Chris Paddack | 2.7 | 16.0 | -1.5 ▼ | |
| 19 | 14.0 | 3 | Zack Wheeler | 1.8 | 10.0 | 4.0 ▲ | |
| 20 | 14.0 | 3 | Sonny Gray | 4.3 | 11.0 | 3.0 ▲ | Red-hot form out of the gate, continuing strong '19 + more K's. |
| 21 | 13.0 | 3 | Trevor Bauer | 2.3 | 12.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 22 | 13.0 | 4 | Jose Berrios | -0.3 | 12.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 23 | 13.0 | 4 | Brandon Woodruff | 3.5 | 13.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 24 | 12.5 | 4 | Aaron Nola | 1.1 | 14.5 | -2.0 ▼ | |
| 25 | 12.0 | 4 | Lance McCullers Jr. | -0.4 | 8.0 | 4.0 ▲ | |
| 26 | 12.0 | 4 | Frankie Montas | 1.4 | 12.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 27 | 12.0 | 4 | Blake Snell | -0.4 | 17.0 | -5.0 ▼ | Only 2 IP his first start, 3 IP his second. |
| 28 | 11.0 | 4 | Charlie Morton | 0.7 | 22.0 | -11.0 ▼ | Velocity drop is extremely concerning. |
| 29 | 11.0 | 5 | Kenta Maeda | 0.6 | 8.5 | 2.5 ▲ | |
| 30 | 11.0 | 5 | Dinelson Lamet | 3.1 | 10.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 31 | 10.0 | 5 | Zac Gallen | 0.4 | 8.5 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| 32 | 10.0 | 5 | Mike Soroka | 2.8 | 9.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 33 | 10.0 | 5 | James Paxton | 0.1 | 12.5 | -2.5 ▼ | Terrifying first start, but his ceiling keeps him high...for now. |
| 34 | 9.5 | 5 | Kyle Hendricks | 3.1 | 8.5 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 35 | 9.5 | 6 | Julio Urias | 0.7 | 9.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 36 | 9.5 | 6 | Carlos Martinez | -1.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 ▲ | Rough first outing, we'll see if he lasts in rotation. |
| 37 | 9.0 | 6 | Jesus Luzardo | 1.1 | 11.0 | -2.0 ▼ | Has been sharp in relief outings, back to rotation on Tues. |
| 38 | 9.0 | 6 | Robbie Ray | -1.7 | 7.0 | 2.0 ▲ | New arm action, same crummy control. |
| 39 | 9.0 | 6 | Madison Bumgarner | 1.5 | 9.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 40 | 8.5 | 6 | Andrew Heaney | 2.8 | 6.0 | 2.5 ▲ | |
| 41 | 8.5 | 6 | Max Fried | 3.7 | 9.5 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 42 | 8.5 | 6 | Matthew Boyd | 1.2 | 9.5 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 43 | 8.0 | 6 | Luke Weaver | -0.2 | 4.5 | 3.5 ▲ | |
| 44 | 8.0 | 6 | Nate Pearson | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7.0 ▲ | Outstanding debut, a special talent regardless of AL East. |
| 45 | 8.0 | 7 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | -0.1 | 9.5 | -1.5 ▼ | Two subpar starts, stock dropping. |
| 46 | 7.0 | 7 | Rich Hill | 1.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 ▲ | |
| 47 | 6.0 | 7 | German Marquez | 3.0 | 8.0 | -2.0 ▼ | Squeezed two road starts in before Rox returned to Coors. |
| 48 | 6.0 | 7 | Ross Stripling | 1.1 | 2.5 | 3.5 ▲ | |
| 49 | 5.0 | 7 | Dylan Bundy | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| 50 | 5.0 | 7 | Garrett Richards | 1.9 | 2.0 | 3.0 ▲ | He even looked good at Coors, I can dig it. |
| 51 | 4.5 | 7 | Aaron Civale | 1.3 | 1.0 | 3.5 ▲ | |
| 52 | 4.5 | 7 | Jordan Montgomery | 0.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| 53 | 4.0 | 7 | Spencer Turnbull | 3.6 | 0.0 | 4.0 ▲ | |
| 54 | 4.0 | 7 | Shohei Ohtani | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 ▲ | Atrocious first game, needs to prove command. |
| 55 | 4.0 | 8 | Mike Minor | 2.1 | 8.0 | -4.0 ▼ | |
| 56 | 3.5 | 8 | Mitch Keller | 0.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 ▼ | How bad is the injury? |
| 57 | 3.5 | 8 | Joe Musgrove | -1.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 58 | 3.5 | 8 | Sean Manaea | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 59 | 3.0 | 8 | Josh James | -1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 ▲ | |
| 60 | 3.0 | 8 | Josh Lindblom | 0.8 | 1.0 | 2.0 ▲ | Strong first start stunted by back cramps. |
| 61 | 3.0 | 8 | Masahiro Tanaka | 0.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 ▼ | Limited in first start, but color me impressed; velo must rise. |
| 62 | 2.5 | 8 | Adrian Houser | -0.2 | 0.0 | 2.5 ▲ | |
| 63 | 2.5 | 8 | Dylan Cease | -1.6 | 1.0 | 1.5 ▲ | Tough first game, talent remains but it's wait-and-see. |
| 64 | 2.5 | 8 | Chris Bassitt | 1.6 | 0.0 | 2.5 ▲ | |
| 65 | 2.0 | 8 | Nathan Eovaldi | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 66 | 2.0 | 8 | Corbin Burnes | 0.8 | 0.0 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| 67 | 2.0 | 8 | Griffin Canning | 0.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 68 | 1.5 | 9 | Kyle Gibson | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| 69 | 1.5 | 9 | Ryan Yarbrough | 1.6 | 2.0 | -0.5 ▼ | Plus ratios, mediocre K's; same old Yarb. |
| 70 | 1.5 | 9 | Cristian Javier | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.5 ▲ | Stellar first start, just watch the control. |
| 71 | 1.5 | 9 | Tyler Chatwood | 2.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 72 | 1.0 | 9 | Kevin Gausman | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 73 | 1.0 | 9 | Spencer Howard | #N/A | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 74 | 1.0 | 9 | Austin Voth | -0.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 75 | 1.0 | 9 | Brady Singer | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 76 | 1.0 | 9 | Jon Gray | 2.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 77 | 1.0 | 9 | Zach Plesac | 5.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 78 | 1.0 | 9 | Kyle Freeland | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | Two QS in a row to open '20...are we back in 2018? |
| 79 | 1.0 | 9 | Caleb Smith | -1.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | When do we see a Marlin on the field again? |
| 80 | 1.0 | 9 | Steven Matz | -0.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 81 | 1.0 | 10 | Dustin May | 2.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 82 | 1.0 | 10 | Anibal Sanchez | -1.9 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 83 | 1.0 | 10 | John Means | -0.9 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 84 | 1.0 | 10 | Homer Bailey | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 85 | 1.0 | 10 | Yusei Kikuchi | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | First start was awful, second was 9 K's, 6 scoreless IP. |
| 86 | 1.0 | 10 | Jonathan Loaisiga | -1.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 87 | 1.0 | 10 | Matt Shoemaker | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 88 | 1.0 | 10 | Merrill Kelly | 1.9 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 89 | 1.0 | 10 | Drew Smyly | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | Undergoing MRI on Sunday. |
| 90 | 1.0 | 10 | Freddy Peralta | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 91 | 1.0 | 10 | Patrick Sandoval | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 92 | 1.0 | 10 | Dakota Hudson | -0.9 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 93 | 1.0 | 10 | Yonny Chirinos | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 94 | 1.0 | 10 | J.A. Happ | -1.1 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 95 | 1.0 | 10 | Zach Davies | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 96 | 1.0 | 10 | Framber Valdez | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 97 | 1.0 | 10 | Johnny Cueto | -0.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 98 | 1.0 | 10 | Alex Cobb | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 99 | 1.0 | 10 | Jon Lester | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 100 | 1.0 | 10 | Justus Sheffield | -0.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 101 | 1.0 | 10 | Kyle Wright | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | Will the Wright experiment ever take off? |
Starting Pitcher Movers of Note
Shane Bieber (SP, Indians): Bieber’s first two starts are arguably the best two starts of any pitcher thus far. And it’s not the result of cheap AL Central matchups either, as he toyed with the Twins just as he played with the Royals. Any stretch with 27 strikeouts to just one walk is impressive, as is a -0.35 FIP in two starts. We may be witnessing a leap from “very good” to “elite” here.
Walker Buehler (SP, Dodgers): Buehler and Blake Snell are the most notable high-end arms to deal with clear workload limits early, but Buehler is way ahead of Snell. We hope Walker can push beyond six innings by his next turn, though LAD has a history of pitching him conservatively.
Sonny Gray (SP, Reds): The early leader on the CSW leaderboard at 40.7% through July 31, Gray is up there with Bieber in terms of two amazing outings out of the gate. I’ll never love rostering a Cincinnati pitcher with summertime Great American Ballpark as their home, but Gray was fantastic last season so maybe he’s just really good again? No, the .150 BABIP can’t stay, but he’s a groundball pitcher with swing-and-miss potential - that’ll play, even at GABP.
Charlie Morton (SP, Rays): Oh no, that velocity is down to pre-2016 levels. He maxed out around 94 mph and simply won’t overwhelm opposing batters with elite stuff at that speed. He either needs to regain life in the arm or suddenly have a Zack Greinke-like arsenal shift on the fly (doubtful). He’s not droppable here, but is closer to the SP25-30 range compared to that top-10 arm that many drafted.
Carlos Martinez (SP, Cardinals): He moves up against preseason ranks by virtue of his locking down a rotation slot, but the performance wasn’t there. Facing the Twins in Minnesota to open the season is a tall order, but eight baserunners and six earned over 3 ⅔ IP is unacceptable. Let’s hope he turns it around next time, or else we may risk losing him to a bullpen role.
Nate Pearson (SP, Blue Jays): Shiny-new-toy syndrome means you can explore trades after Pearson turned in five scoreless innings for an MLB debut, but he’s no fluke either. Over three levels of play in 2019, the youngster turned in a 2.30 ERA/0.89 WHIP with 119 K’s in 101 ⅔ IP. He turns 23 on Aug. 20, and you’ll hopefully be celebrating with him on your roster.
Shohei Ohtani (SP, Angels): That first outing was brutal. Post-TJS command woes are familiar, but that was...woof. Ohtani the batter is phenomenal, but failing to retire any of the six batters you face is inexcusable. Rust is one thing, but he didn’t appear game-ready. Three hits, three walks, and five earned runs at Oakland mean we’re in full wait-and-see mode.
*Both Cristian Javier and Tyler Chatwood could be league-winners if they can keep on tossing strikes like it's their job. Last I checked, it is their job.
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