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With September around the corner, the Week 7 Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks are here to help analyze where the top 101 SPs stand moving forward in this chaotic season. You can check out my weekly Top 101 Relief Pitcher Baller Ranks as well.
David Emerick rolled out an introduction to our Baller Ranks here -- I suggest you read for a full explanation of our purpose, but the TL;DR is here we're providing a one-stop-shop for pitcher and hitter valuation. We'll explore value produced to-date, their current standing, and provide context with analysis.
And for those who want stats like the usual 5x5 categories, strikeout rates, Called + Swinging Strike (CSW) rates, xwOBA, and more on a decked-out spreadsheet, we've got you covered - you can view the full Week 7 Top 101 SP Baller Ranks core sheet here.
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Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 7
| Rank | $ | Tier | Player | EV | $PV | Trend | Notes |
| 1 | 43.0 | 1 | Shane Bieber | 16.7 | 40.0 | 3.0 ▲ | |
| 2 | 38.0 | 1 | Gerrit Cole | 4.9 | 38.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 3 | 38.0 | 1 | Jacob deGrom | 12.8 | 35.0 | 3.0 ▲ | Mets' inability to supply wins are only limitation here. |
| 4 | 34.0 | 2 | Trevor Bauer | 9.3 | 34.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 5 | 30.0 | 2 | Sonny Gray | 11.9 | 30.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 6 | 30.0 | 2 | Clayton Kershaw | 5.2 | 28.0 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| 7 | 29.0 | 2 | Yu Darvish | 12.2 | 25.0 | 4.0 ▲ | |
| 8 | 29.0 | 2 | Max Scherzer | 9.1 | 27.5 | 1.5 ▲ | Top-end strikeouts, but perhaps attacking too aggressively. |
| 9 | 26.0 | 3 | Aaron Nola | 7.4 | 27.0 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 10 | 25.0 | 3 | Luis Castillo | 11.0 | 26.0 | -1.0 ▼ | Steady buy-low if possible, that .400 BABIP is unwieldy. |
| 11 | 25.0 | 3 | Jack Flaherty | 3.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Still a stud, but only 64 pitches this last time out. |
| 12 | 23.0 | 3 | Lance Lynn | 10.4 | 23.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 13 | 23.0 | 3 | Zack Greinke | 11.6 | 23.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 14 | 22.0 | 3 | Kenta Maeda | 10.8 | 21.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 15 | 22.0 | 3 | Dinelson Lamet | 8.0 | 18.0 | 4.0 ▲ | |
| 16 | 22.0 | 3 | Lucas Giolito | 12.2 | 13.0 | 9.0 ▲ | Two straight 13-K gems, can he repeat vs. good teams? |
| 17 | 20.0 | 3 | Zac Gallen | 7.0 | 14.5 | 5.5 ▲ | |
| 18 | 19.0 | 3 | Max Fried | 12.3 | 14.0 | 5.0 ▲ | |
| 19 | 15.5 | 4 | Patrick Corbin | 6.1 | 19.0 | -3.5 ▼ | 4 K's or fewer in 3 of his last 4 starts, stock will fall from that. |
| 20 | 15.5 | 4 | Carlos Carrasco | 2.1 | 16.5 | -1.0 ▼ | 3 QS to start '20, then 3 non-QS. Saturday rebound w/ QS. |
| 21 | 15.5 | 4 | Brandon Woodruff | 10.4 | 14.5 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 22 | 14.0 | 4 | Dylan Bundy | 8.8 | 14.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 23 | 14.0 | 4 | Blake Snell | 2.8 | 13.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 24 | 14.0 | 4 | Aaron Civale | 8.7 | 12.0 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| 25 | 14.0 | 4 | Tyler Glasnow | 4.6 | 10.0 | 4.0 ▲ | 7 IP, 13 K against BAL. Yes, it's BAL, still a dreamy sight. |
| 26 | 13.0 | 4 | Zack Wheeler | 8.2 | 14.0 | -1.0 ▼ | Limiting hard contact well but the whiffs are way down. |
| 27 | 12.0 | 4 | Mike Clevinger | 0.1 | 11.0 | 1.0 ▲ | Got BABIP'd some in return, but 6 K's and 1 BB works. |
| 28 | 11.0 | 5 | Kyle Hendricks | 8.3 | 13.0 | -2.0 ▼ | |
| 29 | 11.0 | 5 | Walker Buehler | 2.1 | 22.0 | -11.0 ▼ | Hopefully just missing the minimum, risk can't be ignored. |
| 30 | 10.5 | 5 | Lance McCullers Jr. | 2.7 | 9.5 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 31 | 9.5 | 5 | German Marquez | 7.8 | 10.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 32 | 9.5 | 5 | Chris Paddack | 0.5 | 11.0 | -1.5 ▼ | Can he rebound at Coors? His heater is getting smashed. |
| 33 | 9.5 | 5 | Jesus Luzardo | 4.3 | 9.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 34 | 9.5 | 5 | Jose Berrios | 3.7 | 9.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 35 | 9.5 | 5 | Andrew Heaney | 9.7 | 9.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 36 | 9.5 | 5 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | 8.6 | 9.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 37 | 9.0 | 5 | Pablo Lopez | 8.2 | 7.0 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| 38 | 9.0 | 5 | Charlie Morton | 1.4 | 9.5 | -0.5 ▼ | Throwing another bullpen session this weekend. |
| 39 | 8.5 | 6 | Dustin May | 4.0 | 9.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 40 | 8.5 | 6 | Chris Bassitt | 5.3 | 8.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 41 | 8.5 | 6 | Corbin Burnes | 9.3 | 8.0 | 0.5 ▲ | Crushed the Pirates with 10 K's in 6 scoreless IP, love it. |
| 42 | 8.5 | 6 | Cristian Javier | 1.8 | 8.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 43 | 8.0 | 6 | Julio Urias | 4.5 | 8.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 44 | 8.0 | 6 | Framber Valdez | 9.1 | 3.5 | 4.5 ▲ | That curveball is working, improved command paying off. |
| 45 | 6.0 | 7 | Frankie Montas | 3.0 | 11.0 | -5.0 ▼ | Turned in third straight brutal outing on Aug. 29. |
| 46 | 5.0 | 7 | Garrett Richards | 1.8 | 8.5 | -3.5 ▼ | |
| 47 | 5.0 | 7 | Dallas Keuchel | 9.1 | 4.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 48 | 5.0 | 7 | Dylan Cease | -0.6 | 5.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 49 | 4.5 | 7 | Masahiro Tanaka | 3.7 | 4.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 50 | 4.5 | 7 | Adrian Houser | 1.4 | 4.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 51 | 4.5 | 7 | Marco Gonzales | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 ▲ | Doesn't wow, but offers steady hand as back-end option. |
| 52 | 4.0 | 7 | Tyler Mahle | 3.3 | 1.5 | 2.5 ▲ | |
| 53 | 4.0 | 7 | Elieser Hernandez | 3.4 | 1.5 | 2.5 ▲ | |
| 54 | 4.0 | 7 | Sixto Sanchez | 2.7 | 1.0 | 3.0 ▲ | Amazing in second start, MIA will cap upside. |
| 55 | 4.0 | 7 | Antonio Senzatela | 4.3 | 1.5 | 2.5 ▲ | |
| 56 | 3.5 | 8 | Josh Lindblom | 2.7 | 4.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 57 | 3.5 | 8 | Kyle Freeland | 6.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| 58 | 3.5 | 8 | Danny Duffy | 4.7 | 4.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 59 | 3.0 | 8 | Tony Gonsolin | 4.9 | 1.0 | 2.0 ▲ | Draws the Sunday start, deserves every opportunity. |
| 60 | 3.0 | 8 | Triston McKenzie | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| 61 | 3.0 | 8 | Casey Mize | 0.3 | 4.0 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 62 | 2.5 | 8 | Spencer Turnbull | 5.9 | 3.5 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 63 | 2.5 | 8 | Alec Mills | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 64 | 2.5 | 8 | Randy Dobnak | 3.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 ▲ | Streak of five straight wins smashed by Tigers, go figure. |
| 65 | 2.0 | 8 | Kevin Gausman | 7.1 | 3.5 | -1.5 ▼ | |
| 66 | 2.0 | 8 | Zach Eflin | 5.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| 67 | 2.0 | 8 | Brad Keller | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 68 | 2.0 | 8 | Zach Davies | 9.4 | 2.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 69 | 2.0 | 8 | Jordan Montgomery | 4.1 | 2.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 70 | 1.5 | 9 | Matthew Boyd | -0.2 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Boyd's first win of the year, a clean QS. September surge? |
| 71 | 1.5 | 9 | Ian Anderson | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| 72 | 1.5 | 9 | Ross Stripling | -2.6 | 6.0 | -4.5 ▼ | Another poor start on Saturday, barely playable right now. |
| 73 | 1.5 | 9 | Taijuan Walker | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 74 | 1.5 | 9 | Sean Manaea | 4.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 75 | 1.5 | 9 | Kyle Gibson | 1.1 | 2.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 76 | 1.5 | 9 | Kwang-Hyun Kim | 2.4 | 0.0 | 1.5 ▲ | Two straight starts w/ six innings, zero earned. Huzzah. |
| 77 | 1.5 | 9 | Mike Minor | 3.3 | 2.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 78 | 1.5 | 9 | Luke Weaver | -1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 79 | 1.5 | 9 | Adam Wainwright | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 80 | 1.5 | 9 | Rich Hill | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| 81 | 1.5 | 9 | Griffin Canning | -0.4 | 2.5 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 82 | 1.0 | 10 | Zach Plesac | 7.5 | 1.5 | -0.5 ▼ | No room in rotation for his shenanigans. I'm not stashing. |
| 83 | 1.0 | 10 | Tyler Chatwood | 3.1 | 1.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 84 | 1.0 | 10 | Alex Cobb | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 85 | 1.0 | 10 | Justus Sheffield | 7.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 86 | 1.0 | 10 | John Means | -2.3 | 1.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 87 | 1.0 | 10 | Anthony DeSclafani | 0.5 | 1.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 88 | 1.0 | 10 | Johnny Cueto | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 89 | 1.0 | 10 | Jon Lester | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 90 | 1.0 | 10 | Mike Fiers | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 91 | 1.0 | 10 | Ryan Yarbrough | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Slated to miss only one start with minimum IL stint. |
| 92 | 1.0 | 10 | Jon Gray | 5.1 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Could flourish if traded away from Coors. |
| 93 | 1.0 | 10 | Chad Kuhl | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 94 | 1.0 | 10 | Ryan Castellani | -0.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 95 | 1.0 | 10 | Brett Anderson | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 96 | 1.0 | 10 | Yusei Kikuchi | 5.9 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 97 | 1.0 | 10 | J.A. Happ | -2.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | Back-to-back decent outings (spread over 2 weeks). |
| 98 | 1.0 | 10 | Michael Pineda | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 99 | 1.0 | 10 | Justin Dunn | -1.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 100 | 1.0 | 10 | Matt Shoemaker | -0.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 101 | 1.0 | 10 | Dakota Hudson | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
Starting Pitcher Movers of Note
Yu Darvish (SP, Cubs): Darvish has earned a promotion through firing off six consecutive starts with one run or fewer, each of them resulting in a win. Now 6-1 with a 1.47 ERA and immaculate 52/8 K/BB ratio, Darvish isn’t dancing on luck either, with a slightly-elevated .314 BABIP and sturdy .274 xwOBA behind the .238 wOBA. He’s been a top-tier SP since last season’s All-Star break.
Yu Darvish's last 20 starts, dating back to start of second half last year: 2.31 ERA, .207/.242/.354 slash line, 170 K, 15 BB, 124.2 IP
— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) August 29, 2020
Lucas Giolito (SP, White Sox): Giolito’s no-hitter stole last week’s show, but it wasn’t even that much better than his previous start on Aug. 20 where he also struck out 13 over seven shutout frames. Now, these two gems came against Detroit and Pittsburgh. Keep your head on straight for Monday’s tilt against Minnesota, who touched him up for seven earned in his 2020 debut.
But after schlepping through some command woes to open the year (13 BB’s in 23 ⅔ IP across first four starts), Giolito’s only issued four free passes in his last 21 IP. Let’s see that trend continue of attacking the zone. His 72.7% zone-contact rate is the lowest among all pitchers with at least 20 IP through Aug. 28, giving hitters the least opportunity to capitalize on hittable pitches.
Chris Paddack (SP, Padres): Paddack’s changeup and curve are still as effective as 2019, but his fastball is getting destroyed. After hitters only mustered a .204 average/.212 xBA and .391 SLG/.393 xSLG against it in ‘19, they’re tagging it for a .333 average (.344 xBA) and .797 SLG/.762 xSLG. The average exit velocity on it has risen by three ticks to 92.1 mph, surrendering eight homers already. For context, he’d given up 14 homers on four times the amount of heaters last year. This is cause for legitimate concern, especially with his next start coming today (Sunday) at Coors.
Framber Valdez (SP, Astros): Valdez continues to throw an elite curveball just as he did last season, but his walk rate has more than halved compared to 2019. His first-strike rate climbed from 58.7% to 61%, but the overall walk rate is down to 5.8% from 13.4%. You can find further evidence of this in his 53% Zone%, up from 49.9% last year (per Savant).
His curve has gone up a tick, from 79 to 80 mph, in exchange for a few inches of drop compared to ‘19 per Brooks Baseball. One cannot expect the current level of production to simply become his norm, but it feels great to see the 2.61 FIP/2.85 xFIP underneath the hood.
Tyler Mahle (SP, Reds): Mahle ripped the Cubs for a season-high 11 strikeouts on Friday, giving him a clean 33% strikeout rate over 23 innings. While the 10.3% walk rate is shaky, his season hasn’t allowed him to settle into the starting role. He tossed six innings of one-hit ball against Cleveland on Aug. 4 only to be pushed out of the rotation, and perhaps now we’re seeing him get his groove back.
Sixto Sanchez (SP, MIA): Sánchez defended his status as Miami’s top prospect on Friday, twirling seven scoreless innings with 10 K’s and one walk against the Rays. This came after giving up three earned over five innings versus Washington in his debut, with the Tampa performance closer to his true talent.
One can’t expect 10-strikeout days on the regular, but a 14/1 K/BB ratio in his first 12 MLB innings is tied to a history of strong control in the minors. He had a walk rate below 5% between High- and Double-A last year, and the bump in K’s may point to Major Leaguers being more aggressive. With a heavy 98-mph fastball that can touch triple digits, an 89-mph change and slidepiece to toss in with an infrequent curve, Sánchez has the tools to be a must-start arm. If the 22-year-old continues with healthy command and a higher floor then he’ll keep on rising.
Sixto Sanchez’s second big-league start:
7 scoreless IP vs. the Rays
10 K
13 fastballs 99 mph or faster
3 at 100+What. An. Arm.
— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) August 29, 2020
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