RADIO
Baseball is back, folks! As entertaining as the All-Star festivities were, it's nice to get back to organized baseball games, particularly with postseason races picking up. We truly are in the midst of the best time of the year.
Fantasy baseball teams are built through the draft, but an argument can be made that leagues are won through in-season management. Being able to leverage your lineups appropriately so that you are starting the players who are a) playing in the most games and b) are in the most favorable matchups will allow accumulating as many statistics as possible, regardless of league format.
One common way to create the optimal lineup is streaming hitters off of the fantasy baseball waiver wire. It is very common to pick up pitchers who have favorable matchups, but what about doing the same for hitters? Outside of batting average, the other four traditional 5x5 hitter categories are counting statistics, meaning that you can gain a legitimate edge by targeting undervalued hitters on the waiver wire you have the best opportunity to produce. That is the focus of this column. Every week, we will be taking a look at which hitters are the most valuable streaming assets off of the waiver wire. All of these players are under 50% owned in Yahoo leagues, yet could be premium contributors for the upcoming week. Who are these intriguing fantasy baseball streamers? Let us dive right into it!
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What Teams Offer The Most Streaming Value?
When it comes to streaming hitters, outside of overall talent, there are three factors to pay attention to:
- How many games is that team playing this week? Playing in the most games gives you the most opportunity to rack up the counting statistics we are looking for. Six games are the standard for a week, with anything above that very enticing and anything below that worrisome.
- What parks are they playing at? There is a major difference between playing your games in Colorado and playing your games in Oakland when it comes to offensive success. Targeting players who will benefit from playing in hitter-friendly targets is a great way to gain an edge over your opponents. For this study, we will be using Baseball Savant's park factors to rank the friendliness of the stadiums each team is playing at for this upcoming week.
- Which pitchers are they facing? To calculate the strength of the opponent, we will be using Fangraphs Depth Chart's FIP projections for each starting pitcher they will face.
By taking the average park factor and projected opposing starting pitcher ERA for each of their games, and then adding a boost based on the game played, we can accurately measure the "friendliness" of each team's upcoming matchups. Speaking of which, it is time for the great reveal!
Coming out of the All-Star break, there certainly is an abundance of action this week. With teams like the Reds, Red Sox, and Rockies playing full weeks at home, there should be plenty of high-scoring games to get excited about, while off days aren't a common theme of the week.
Sadly, as great as it would be to have plenty of Dodgers hitters on our fantasy teams, that's not the reality we live in. Still, thanks due to the high frequency of seven-game weeks, there are still more than enough players who should be on your radar. So who is in a position to thrive this week? Let's take a closer look!
Stats via Baseball Savant and Fangraphs
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
38% rostered
The inclusion of Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera as honorary All Stars gave us a moment to appreciate the greatness of two of the game's best first basemen and two future Hall of Famers. Even if he doesn't get the same general recognition as those two, I sure hope we can have similar acknowledgment for what Joey Votto has accomplished during his MLB career.
In his prime seasons between 2009 and 2017, Votto, as his 162 weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) indicates, was 62% above league average as a hitter, walked (17.1%) about as much as he struck out (17.8%), and boasted an absurd .436 on-base percentage.
Considering his peak came at a time where walks and on-base ability weren't perhaps as appreciated, this can help explain why he perhaps isn't held in the same light as other Hall of Fame-caliber first basemen, but when it's all said and done, it's hard to say that a visit to Cooperstown isn't in his future.
For that to happen, Votto will be looking to close out the final few seasons of his career on a high note. After a dominant second half with a 165 wRC+ that was energized by notable approach changes, there was plenty of reason to be optimistic about him continue to defy Father Time as he headed into his age-38 season. Unfortunately, that has not happened (96 wRC+), but that doesn't mean another strong second half isn't in order.
See, Votto started the season very poorly, posting just a 30 wRC+ through May 1st. Then, he was placed on the COVID-19 list, and during this time, made the decision to go back to his old bat – he had been experimenting with a "hockey-puck" style bat.
Since coming back on May 20th, the results (129 wRC+, 13.4% barrel) clearly back up this decision, as he's looked much closer to the player he was last year.
Even if Votto's recent surface-level production has wavered, that has come with no drop-off with his quality of contact numbers.
With the Reds playing seven home games this week, including four against non-Sandy Alcantara Marlins pitchers and the Orioles, this is looking like a strong week for Votto. A surge exactly like last season is a lofty expectations, but, never, ever doubt Joey Votto.
Connor Joe, Colorado Rockies
36% rostered
Anytime the Rockies have a full slate of games, with a majority (six) at home, you usually when to target their hitters. However, if there is one player that consistently stands out, that would be Connor Joe.
By now, hopefully, you're aware of Joe's exceptional story. After dominating in the minor leagues between multiple organizations, Joe finally got his chance at the big level with the Giants in 2019, only to get on base two times in 16 plate appearances before being let go.
Soon after, he was diagnosed with testicular cancer, and not only managed to recover but somehow managed to get back into baseball in 2021.
On its own, that would be an amazing story. Instead, Joe posted an absurd 165 wRC+ in Triple-A with the Rockies and then continued to thrive (116 wRC+) upon being promoted to the MLB level. Finally, after overcoming enormous obstacles that few people could, he had found his place in the big leagues as a clear above-average hitter.
Sadly, Joe has seen notable drop-offs in his barrel rate (4.4%) and hard-hit rate (32.9%0, which rank below the 20th percentile. Nevertheless, a hitter who makes contact (7.5% swinging-strike rate), has even sprays in optimal trajectories (27.3% flare/burner) is perfect for Coors Field, especially when he can add to those on-base skills with a 12.3% walk rate.
There is no indication that his current .367 on-base percentage is any fluke, and as a result, he'll continue to be a catalyst at the top of the lineup for the Rockies.
In what will be high-scoring environments, that's going to mean a lot of runs scored, in addition to strong offensive contributions. Regardless of your league's format, Joe adds a lot of value as a multi-position player who takes advantage of playing in Colorado better than any other player. Simply put, he isn't your average Joe.
Andrew McCutchen, Milwaukee Brewers
34% rostered
With the Cardinals just a half game out of the NL Central and the wildcard race very tight, there's a legitimate chance that the Brewers miss the postseason for the first time since 2017. That is unless they can turn things up in the second half.
Milwaukee will see a boost with the eventual return of Freddy Peralta and more consistent performances from their bullpen, but they'll also be looking for more returns from their lineup. One player that could help the cause? Andrew McCutchen.
Signed to a one-year deal this offseason, the former Pirates superstar was expected to be a stable force in the middle of the lineup. Instead, he's been a below-replacement level player thus far, which you would expect from a primary designated hitter with a below-average wRC+ (97).
Still, that doesn't mean we simply write off any chance of a small rebound. After all, McCutchen is hitting the ball harder (41.2% hard-hit) than last year and is striking out at a low clip (19.5% K).
Yet he is suffering from the lowest home run/fly ball rate (10.2%) of his career since 2010, even though his barrel rate (7.8%) is roughly in line with where its been in previous years. As offense continues to pick back up, McCutchen stands to benefit, and this is a good week for that to start.
Why? Well, the Brewers may only play six games, but by playing three games at home and three in Boston, they are in offensive-friendly environments and don't face one starting pitcher with a projected FIP under 4.45. If there is a time for their bats to turn things on, it's now, and McCutchen ought to be a key conductor.
Mike Yastrzemski and Evan Longoria, Giants
Yastrzemski: 31% rostered
Longoria: 5% rostered
UPDATE: After this article was published, Evan Longoria was placed on the IL after getting injured on Saturday night with a hamstring strain.
Speaking of the National League postseason race, the Giants, who entered the All-Star break winners of seven of their last nine games, are starting to get back into position to get back into the playoffs for a second straight season. To do so, though, these two players will certainly need to do their part.
Through the month of May, Mike Yastrzemski was quietly amongst the league's best hitters with a 150 wRC+, shining both in terms of on-base ability and hitting for power. Since then, the 31-year-old has dropped off to a 79 wRC+ and 30.5% strikeout rate, which is far from ideal. So, is it time to lose faith? Of course not.
During this stretch, although Yastrzemski's strikeout rate is sky high, his 9.2% swinging-strike rate indicates his true talent is much closer to a 20% or lower strikeout rate. Meanwhile, he's still barreling the ball up (11.3% barrel) during this span.
As his .228 batting average on balls in play and 10.9% home, run/fly ball rate (both too low) improve, he'll naturally start having the type of offensive production we've come to expect from him. The Giants, who continue to play him every day, are aware of this, and soon enough their patience will be rewarded.
Between Joey Votto and Andrew McCutchen, we've talked a lot about former superstar players. Yet, of all the cluster of that prototype, it's actually been Evan Longoria who has had the best season from a production standpoint.
In fact, his 123 wRC+ and 13.3% barrel rate are exactly in line with his "renaissance" season from last year, and we're now seeing him receive more playing time, particularly in the middle of San Francisco's lineup.
Longoria has hinted at retirement at the end of the year, but he's still performing at a very high level right now. While he's still on a TV screen in front of us, let's take a second to appreciate what has been a fantastic career for the third baseman.
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