Week 11 Rankings Analysis - Nick Mariano vs. Industry ECR

Howdy, and welcome to the weekly column that puts my rankings front and center and compares them against the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR).  Who am I and why should you care? I was the ninth-most accurate in-season expert on FantasyPros out of 125 last season and am fighting against the incredibly smart field yet again.

One can't regularly land in the top 25% of this field by accident and I absolutely think you should hold us accountable by objective measures such as this. I'll be examining my own ranks against the ECR on a position-by-position basis, focusing here on QB, RB, WR and TE.

Below you will find my rankings and analysis, separated by position. If anything strikes a chord, I’m always available for questions via Twitter: @NMariano53. But enough jibber-jabber, let’s get to it.

Week 11 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

After failing to top 25 rushing yards in any of his first seven games, Russell Wilson (My Rank: 8, ECR: 10) has put in 133 ground yards over the last two weeks and he continues to drop TD dimes at an unsustainable rate. His 21 pass TDs on just 163 completions is absurd, though Deshaun Watson’s crazy rate from 2017 softened us up to this. With the early hamstring injury seemingly out of the way and the rushing floor back, Russ needs to be treated as a legit top-10 threat every week, let alone one against a battered Green Bay defense.

Speaking of rushing yards, Trubisky’s got 320 of them! He trails only Cam Newton (352) for the lead out of all QBs and is one of five signal-callers with at least three rush TDs. Mix this with a now-healthy Allen Robinson, an emerging Anthony Miller and strong complementary pieces in Tarik Cohen, Trey Burton and Taylor Gabriel, sprinkle in some Matt Nagy innovation and baby, you’ve got a stew going at home against a Vikings defense that’s better against the run than the pass.

Roethlisberger slapped me across the face last week by going off against Carolina in a game that I never would’ve guessed would yield 52 Pittsburgh points. Never, ever. Alas, that was still at home (and in primetime, if you buy that narrative) and now Big Ben hits the road for a date with the Jaguars. I recognize Carson Wentz and Andrew Luck just put up three-touchdown games against the Jags, but both were road games (the Philly one was in London). Big Ben has thrown 14 TDs and 3 INTs in five home games and 7 TDs vs. 4 INTs in four road contests. I'm not burying him in my ranks, but I can't seat him comfortably near my top-10.

If I pressed you to rank Stafford among QBs thus far (in fantasy points) off the top right now, what would you say? If you answered, “No. 19” then you are a stud (or suffering through owning him). Technically, he’s 24th on average points for any QB who has started a game, but then Matt Barkley is ahead of him. He salvaged Week 10 with some garbage-time scores but looks to be sorely missing Golden Tate on an offense that has begun to embrace the ground game in earnest. I know the name brand has you clinging to hope, but if Marvin Jones is less than 100% then I really, really suggest you abandon ship and embrace the stream life.

Week 11 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

I’ve been going against Alex Collins (18 vs. 20) often this season, but Week 11 against a reeling Bengals team should offer the rushing game a solid workload. The Vegas lines aren’t out with Baltimore’s QB situation in limbo, but both a hobbled Joe Flacco or upstart Lamar Jackson/Robert Griffin III should mean the game is more in the hands of its RBs and defense. FootballOutsiders gives Baltimore’s O-line an 80% power success rate, third-best in the NFL, so I’m in on Collins as an RB2.

After a rough first five games, Lamar Miller (20 vs. 25) turned things on in Week 7 with a 22-100-1 rush line (against Jacksonville, of all teams) before turning in an 18-133-1 showing in Week 8. Of course, he came back to earth with a horrid 12-21-0 line against Denver, but at least he had 27 receiving yards on two catches. With Deshaun Watson’s improved health and a Demaryius Thomas trade to soften the Will Fuller injury blow, Houston looks deserving of being third-point road favorites over Washington (who made Peyton Barber somehow look good in Week 10, yielding 61 yards on 13 carries).

Jalen Richard (30 vs. 34) and the Raiders will be desperate for weapons and if they want to actually score touchdowns, something I’m not fully convinced they want to do, they should lean on Richard and Jared Cook (more on that later). I’m with everyone else that Doug Martin is right at the RB2/3 cusp around No. 25, but Richard should get more run if Oakland is left with Seth Roberts as its primary wideout come Sunday.

Highlight-worthy runs such as Dalvin Cook’s (24 vs. 19) 70-yard gallop where he recorded the fastest speed reached by a ballcarrier in ‘18 (22.07 mph) can anchor us, but he still put up just 19 yards on the other nine carries and I’m very worried about Latavius Murray inside the red zone. Cook tallied a 57% snap share against Murray's 45% in Week 9 and Murray got three red-zone opportunities compared to Cook's zero. Oh, and there’s the whole “Minnesota’s facing the Bears defense” thing. The Bears have surrendered one rushing TD to an RB all year and yield an average rushing line of 20-68-0. Bleh.

I don’t want to speak much on Rashaad Penny (34 vs. 28) or the rest of the Seahawks in terms of their ECR because Chris Carson’s status will likely need to be finalized for the value to count for something. While Penny looked great and has the first-round pedigree, Carson and Mike Davis will make this a three-headed monster that likely cannibalizes itself in terms of fantasy value. This goes the same for knocking down the Eagles triumvirate (Josh Adams - 37 vs. 31, Wendell Smallwood - 42 vs. 37, and Corey Clement - 47 vs. 41), who will battle each other and New Orleans’ incredible run defense for fantasy value.

Week 11 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

It’s Davante Adams who should get to pick on Seattle’s Tre Flowers the most, as Marquez Valdes-Scantling (23 vs. 28) should man the slot with Randall Cobb out. This raises his floor with higher-percentage targets closer to Mr. Aaron Rodgers, but a one-week sample without Cobb gave MVS a paltry 5.0 average depth of target (aDOT) against a 10.3 for Equanimeous St. Brown and 13.3 for Adams on the perimeter.

As for Michael Crabtree (29 vs. 37), I realize this means buying into Baltimore’s quarterback situation but he’s primed for a big game. Over their last four games, Crabtree’s 452 air yards lead Willie Snead (308) and John Brown (289) while his 15.6 aDOT also bests both Snead (8.6) and Brown (12.6). He falls into my top-30 but I also won’t twist anyone’s arm into playing him, this is just what my tool is plopping into my lap.

And if tapping into Baltimore’s passing game wasn’t riveting enough for you, how about we head to D.C. and lean on Alex Smith! No? Okay, I get it. But seriously, Maurice Harris (40 vs. 53) leads all Washington wideouts with 34 targets since hitting the field in Week 5 and paces the whole roster with 278 receiving yards, which I know isn’t that enticing, but the potential for more exists as three-point underdogs at home.

Allen Robinson (32 vs. 26) returned to action with a bang in Week 10, logging a superb 133 yards with two touchdowns on six catches. While I love Trubisky for the composite picture that he paints, AR12 is up against a Minnesota secondary that ranks first in the NFL per FootballOutsiders’ DVOA metric against No. 1 WRs. I won't be surprised if he's the erased one while the others put in work.

And then there’s Devin Funchess (39 vs. 33), whose 31 targets over Carolina’s last five games are tied with Christian McCaffrey and Greg Olsen (28) isn’t far behind. But let’s sharpen the lens to their last three games, where the target share rattles out as such: CMC (17), Olsen (16), DJ Moore (13), Funchess (12) and Curtis Samuel (11). The good news for him is that his 11 aDOT still leads the pack within that window. But the Panthers are stuck facing the Lions and Darius Slay already got a limited practice in on Wednesday, so I’d wager he plays and dampens Funchess’ already downward-trending outlook.

Week 11 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

We know who Jared Cook (6 vs. 11) is -- a guy with incredible athleticism and inconsistency on a team that is consistently terrible -- but Oakland may be down both Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant on the outside. Brandon LaFell and Seth Roberts are not playmakers, which means Cook should be a huge focal point on Sunday in Arizona. He saw nine targets in Week 10 and I’d expect the same here, not to mention he’s one-of-four TEs with 500+ yards, which makes him a top-six play for me.

Heuerman (11 vs. 16) stepped up in Week 9, posting a ridiculous 10-83-1 line on 11 targets to head into Denver’s bye with TDs in two straight games. The Broncos' opponent, the Chargers, have given up four touchdowns to tight ends over their last six games, with the only two non-TD tilts coming from both Oakland contests (awkward, Jared Cook). I'm excited at the prospect of Denver realizing they can integrate Heuerman more into their passing attack and the matchup is at least neutral where I can lean into it.

Here’s a list of Trey Burton’s (9 vs. 5) targets by game thus far: 6, 4, 5, 4, 4, 11, 4, 3 and 4. Can you spot the outlier? In Burton’s favor is his red-zone usage (five TDs), but boy, is it hard to plant him inside the top-eight when he’s averaging four targets. I know, my Chicago offense model is odd but I think Gabriel, Miller and Cohen are going to be bigger. Anyway, this target sadness goes double for Uzomah (21 vs. 17), who has seen 10 targets in Cincinnati’s last three games and is reliant on finding the end zone. This doesn’t bode well when facing the Ravens defense in Baltimore, especially if A.J. Green is out and can’t help drag the Bengals to the red zone.

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