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Mike Evans is poised for greatness in 2015, and that could spell success for fantasy owners who value him properly. Yahoo! currently ranks Evans 12th among receivers. However, that current third round ADP is a little high for me. I can’t justify taking Evans in the third round while comparable talent goes much deeper. You shouldn’t be touching Mike Evans before the fourth round, and there’s plenty of rationalization for that.
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I understand the obvious upgrade at quarterback with Jameis Winston, but there’s reason to believe that the rookie may struggle at times, as rookie quarterbacks typically do. Rookie quarterbacks can tend to lean on one receiver heavily and showcase that guy as their safety valve and go-to receiver. Andrew Luck heavily favored Reggie Wayne, Ben Roethlisberger heavily favored Hines Ward, and Eli Manning heavily favored Plaxico Burress. None of those teams had their second-leading receiver eclipse 900 yards. The point is that we don’t know how Jameis will utilize his weapons, and as those examples show, rookie quarterbacks often favor the veteran. If that were the case, it could lead to gaudy numbers for Vincent Jackson and ugly numbers for Evans. While I think the coaching staff will draw up plenty of Evans-centered plays, it’s still a concern. That’s a big question mark for me even with the WR1 upside that Evans flirted with in 2014.
To me, Mike Evans is a high-end WR2 and if that’s the case, there’s plenty of WR2 talent much deeper in the rankings that also have WR1 upside for a number of reasons besides the fabled "sophomore slump". The main deterrent from WR1 status is Evans' inconsistency. 44% of Evans' total yardage came in three games (Weeks 9-11), where he tallied 458 yards and five touchdowns. Those were the only three games in which he broke 100 receiving yards. He finished the year with 12 TDs, but I see them becoming harder to come by in 2015 as he'll likely see more attention in the red zone. I also expect him to see many more double-teams and defensive keys used against him as the Bucs' primary receiver in 2015. I'll still consider him a strong play most days and the WR1 upside is evident. However, a guy that posts fewer than 80 yards and 0 TDs relatively frequently should not be considered a WR1--Evans did that six times last year.
I’d rather build up another position and snag a similar WR2 with WR1 upside later on in the draft than take a guy with question marks with one of my top three picks. Guys like Emmanuel Sanders, Desean Jackson, Kelvin Benjamin, and Golden Tate all have lower ADP’s than Evans yet are all capable of WR1 numbers. Three out of those four guys had significantly more yardage than Evans while the fourth (Benjamin) was held back by an obviously beat-up Cam Newton. Still, the chemistry was clear, and I’ll take a guy with similar stats and familiarity with his QB in the fourth round over a guy with a rookie QB in the 3rd round.
So where should you draft Mike Evans? Not before the fourth round. If he’s available somewhere in the fourth and the surrounding talent isn’t what you were looking for, select Evans. Yes, there are question marks, but the upside was evident last year. It’s simply worth knowing that there is plenty of risk to accompany Evans' upside in 2015.
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