RADIO
Four wins in six starts for Masters champion and World No. 1, Scottie Scheffler! Just an incredible run of golf. Two weeks ago, we wrote about "Scottie's Notties" and how we were always the bridesmaid to him. Well, if you can't beat them, bet on the bride and hope he carries on breaking hearts around the world. He did, and we are a celebrating our second winner in four weeks.
Cam Smith was right in the mix on Sunday too, but as the only player in the top seven to lose strokes off the tee, the rest of his game just could not keep his head above hole twelve's water for long enough. Once he figures out his driving dilemmas, the rest of his game is brilliant enough to win anywhere.
Smith three putting the 18th to miss a two-way tie for our first FRL, was the only section of the article we failed to make a profit. It was, indeed, a majestic Masters for Breaking $100. Five of our six golfers cashed their placing bets and there was an ACE on Friday courtesy of Stewart Cink. Shane Lowry hit the flag for an almost ACE on Thursday, which would have made for a sensational week. It was fantastic none the less.
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You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
Course Breakdown and Key Stats
Harbour Town Golf Links, Par: 71, Yardage: 7,191, Greens: Bermuda, Designer: Pete Dye
Those who just played at Augusta are going to have to recalibrate their golf game to suit a shorter, quirkier track that is almost as predictable as Augusta from a course history standpoint. With driver often remaining in the bag off the tee, shorter hitters will be in the mix this week. Golfers who excel with their irons from 125-200 yards will typically have a chance here as 63% of all approaches have taken place from that range in the last four years.
Smaller Bermuda greens drop green in regulation numbers to eight percent lower than tour average, making strokes gained around the green an essential component for success. With the number of strokes available to be gained off the tee limited by forced layups, golfers will need to gain strokes elsewhere. Only three players inside the top-25 at last year's RBC lost strokes putting, so we will be weighting putting slightly more in the model this week.
With the winning scores in 2020 (-22) and 2019 (-12) being vastly different, a mix of birdies and bogey avoidance will be required to adapt to whatever conditions may occur. The three Par-5s give up birdies up to 50% of the time, with the second hole averaging more than half a shot under par.
In summary, we are looking for players to excel in most of the below criteria:
- Model rank
- Course history
- SG: APP / SG: APP L24:
- Proximity from 125-200 yards
- SG: ARG
- Par 5 scoring
Outrights
Our betting strategy for outrights is typically rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events, in order to break even. Augusta National required a unique skill set to succeed, eliminating most of the field who lacked length, making the pool of probable winners smaller which allowed us to go with two favorites.
With so many more players capable of winning this week, we are putting together a slightly larger card of mid-priced golfers with hopes that one of them has a great putting week. Although there are many elite players in the field, the volatility of this event has us ignoring them and their odds would severely limit the size of our card.
From a dollar standpoint, we are betting $13 of our $100 to net $110 or more.
Daniel Berger ($4.50 @ +2800)
Brian Harman and Maverick McNealy both had write ups about how they were going to win the RBC Heritage, but both pieces lacked conviction and belief from yours truly. Enter Daniel Berger. He was our very first heart break of the series blowing a five-shot lead at The Honda, but that does not stop us from going back to the well.
This season his driver has seen distance sacrificed for accuracy, which suits this golf course perfectly. Berger's iron play has dwindled in the three events since The Honda, but he arrives at a course that he has really good vibes at, finishing T13 and T3 in his last two starts here. We know DB is all about the vibes.
His recent iron play is a minor concern, but that may be why we were able to get him at such a nice number. Berger had a terrible Masters, but the course may have been too big for him, which is not the case at Harbour Town. If he befriends his approach baseline again and scrambles to his world-class potential, Berger should have no trouble dismantling the course and his competition this week.
- Model rank: #4
- SG: APP/L24: #4/#31
- Course history: #5
- Prox 125-200: #10
- SG: ARG: #3
- Par 5 scoring: #15
Russell Henley ($3.45 @ +3500)
In a field saturated with elite ball strikers, Russell Henley is the second best of the bunch, with Collin Morikawa still owning the best approach baseline in the business. However, Henley also owns the third best approach numbers over the last 24 rounds, behind Cam Smith and Justin Thomas. His three counterparts all rank inside the top-10 in the world, with Henley sitting back in 42nd. A lack of distance and Sunday nerves have seemingly kept Henley from climbing the world golf rankings.
Russell's consistent ball striking catapults him inside the top-10 anytime his putter gets off of life support. He finished T9 here last year, gaining over 10 strokes on approach, only to have his putter spoil the party. Even a lukewarm flatstick will be enough to see him contend this week if he continues to strike the ball the way he has this season. In a field loaded with the worlds very best, there is a good chance Henley finds himself chasing someone down for a victory, instead of dealing with a nervy final round lead, which may be his best chance at winning.
- Model rank: #6
- Course history: #28
- SG: APP / SG: APP L24: #2 / #3
- Prox 125-200: #5
- SG: ARG: #38
- Par 5 scoring: #28
Billy Horschel ($3 @ +4000)
Billy and majors are like chocolate covered potato chips, simply incompatible. Let's take the good from last week's Masters, his four shots gained on approach, and forget about the rest. Prior to the masters Billy has six top-20s and a WD at The Players, which is a tremendous run of form. He has been striking his irons incredibly since the Honda Classic, ranking sixth over the last 24 rounds. Having the best year of his career around the greens, he is currently chipping much better than his 84th ranking. Horschel has always been a great putter, capable of gaining eight strokes on the greens like he did here in 2018.
At a second-shot course, his current game fits what we are looking for from a winner this week. The RBC Heritage is not a major, giving him the best opportunity to put his peaking game to the test and cash an outright for us.
- Model rank: #17
- SG: APP/L24: #97/#6
- Course history: #40
- Prox 125-200: #65
- SG: ARG: #84
- Par 5 scoring: #14
Adam Hadwin ($2.05 @ +6000)
Hadwin strolls into the week with a casual trio of top-10s in as many starts. The majority of his strokes gained have come on approach, which has recently transformed into the best and most reliable part of his game. The steady Canadian struck it well enough to finish T4 in his last start at the Valero while losing strokes putting, which is typically one of the stronger areas of his game. In fact, Adam ranks eighth in strokes gained putting on Bermuda over the last 50 rounds.
His baseline approach numbers are held back by a poor 2021 with the irons but has gained in every major stat category this season. He has yet to crack the top-20 at Harbour Town, but with his irons peaking, a second shot golf course that requires a sharp short game is an ideal track to put Adam's name on our card again.
- Model rank: #27
- SG: APP/L24: #75/#8
- Course history: #44
- Prox 125-200: #59
- SG: ARG: #24
- Par 5 scoring: #69
First-Round Leaders
Golf is a really weird game when it comes to the mental side of things. Some pros play better on Thursday when there is no pressure, while others play their best under pressure on a stressful Sunday afternoon. First-Round Leader bets will be for players who play really well on Thursdays. Typically, if you gain six strokes total on a Thursday, you stand a really good chance of leading after round one.
From a dollar standpoint, we are betting a total of $12.35 on five guys to net $110 or more.
Daniel Berger ($3 @ +4000)
Over the last two seasons, Berger finds himself trailing only Cameron Smith in round one scoring average. He gained 6.3 strokes at the Honda, just missing out on a FRL ticket. In 2021 he gained 5.4 strokes on the field at Pebble Beach, which is a shorter, positional golf course too. After a disappointing Masters he should be playing with vigor on the way to the top of the Thursday leaderboard.
Billy Horschel ($2.70 @ +4500)
Horschel is not far behind Berger in round one scoring average, landing in fifth spot courtesy of his 6.1 and 5.3 strokes gained at the API and Farmers Insurance Open this year. With his accuracy off the tee and irons firing on all cylinders, all we need is one hot day with the putter to give us a really good chance at clinching a FRL this week.
Russell Henley ($2.70 @ +4500)
One spot ahead of Billy, sits Russell Henley who averages 2.18 strokes gained on Thursdays. Since the 2021 season, Henley has four first rounds where he has gained more than five shots on the field. He plays freely and putts much better on the first day of the tournament. If he rolls those putts in we should see Russ cook.
Adam Hadwin ($2.05 @ +6000)
A first round 64 at the Valspar Championship this year proved that Hadwin has the firepower to go low. His irons are constantly providing him with birdie opportunities that simply need the putter to cooperate for another Thursday lead.
Chris Kirk ($1.90 @ +6500)
Chirs Kirk misses the outright card as his Sunday putting antics are a major concern. However, the putter is a weapon for Kirk early in the tournament, gaining 1.4 strokes putting on Thursdays this season. He tied Berger for a Thursday second place at The Honda, gaining over five strokes on the field for the third time in the last two seasons.
- Model rank: #19
- SG: APP/L24: #29/#23
- Course history: #45
- Prox 125-200: #31
- SG: ARG: #5
- Par 5 scoring: #90
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Placings
BetMGM has been really generous with their odds lately. Unlike most books, they pay out ties in full, which is a huge deal, especially if their odds are the best in the market. When determining to go with better odds (dead heat rules) or slightly worse odds (ties paid in full), we use a 30-point threshold to make that decision. If dead-heat odds are 31 points more than the odds that offer ties, we will go with dead heat odds. I have bolded the odds we decided on for each bet.
We have $74.65 remaining in the bank, of which we will be using $69.65 on six T20s and one T30. Odds range from +130 to +1000 so three of the seven guys we bet on need to cash to make a profit, depending on their respective odds.
Daniel Berger (T20: $10 @ +130 on BetMGM, -115 FanDuel)
Daniel makes an appearance in all three sections of the card. If he resorts back to his baseline on approach, there is a good chance Berger ends the week with his third consecutive top-20 at the RBC Heritage.
Russell Henley (T20: $10 @ +150 on BetMGM, +130 on FD)
Just like Berger, Henley lands on all three phases of the article. He had a T9 here last year and is looking for his fifth top-20 in his last eight stroke-play starts.
Joaquin Nieman (T20: $10 @ +150 on BetMGM, +175 on FD)
Nieman is a fantastic ball striker and will bring that skillset to a course he finished T5 at last year. He did so without gaining any strokes putting, which is testament to his brilliant iron play. Nieman lights up the board with most of the stats we are looking for from our picks. His irons are peaking, with his L24 outperforming his baseline by several spots. It should be a good week for Joaquin.
- Model rank: #8
- SG: APP/L24: #19/#7
- Course history: #1 (One T5)
- Prox 125-200: #20
- SG: ARG: #57
- Par 5 scoring: #11
Adam Hadwin (T20: $10 @ +200 BetMGM, +190 on FD)
His last three starts have been top-10s, but at +200 with ties paid in full, we will give ourselves some cushion with a T20 bet at fantastic odds. Another pick that appears on each section of the card.
Brian Harman (T20: $10 @ +270 on FD, +225 on BetMGM)
He missed out on making the outright card because we felt that Berger had more upside than him and McNealy, but he is playing well enough to bet him top-20 at +270. His L24 on approach ranked inside the top-20 before updating The Masters data, which just seemed like a course too big for a short hitter like Harman. He now heads to a course that suits his playing style really nicely finishing inside the top-20 in two of his last five appearances here.
- Model rank: #13
- SG: APP/L24: #83/#36
- Course history: #17
- Prox 125-200: #77
- SG: ARG: #20
- Par 5 scoring: #16
Adam Svensson (T20: $9.65 @ +1000 on DK, +700 on BetMGM)
Adam Svensson has finished inside the top-10 at the Honda and the Sony this year, which are both shorter, positional courses like Harbour Town. He is a short hitter who has impressive accuracy off the tee. He has gained roughly four strokes on approach at the two courses already mentioned as well as at Pebble Beach, which is another comparative course. Collin Morikawa is +1300 to win the entire event while we take a flier on Svensson at +1000 to place top-20 at a short course, that his small sample size has shown he seems to specialize at.
- Model rank: #124
- SG: APP/L24: #127/#39
- Course history: First time
- Prox 125-200: #41
- SG: ARG: #130
- Par 5 scoring: #106
Matt Kuchar (T30: $10 @ +130 on FD)
We are leaning heavily on Kuchar's stellar course history here. He has seven top-30s at the RBC Heritage in his last eight starts. He has finished top-20 in his last two starts this year which is enough recent form to feel comfortable heading to a very happy hunting ground. Kuchar typically gains most of his strokes with his short game. However, he has played here every year since 2011 and has never lost strokes on approach. Plus-money odds on a player with this kind of course history is a green light.
- Model rank: #33
- SG: APP/L24: #67/#65
- Course history: #7
- Prox 125-200: #60
- SG: ARG: #13
- Par 5 scoring: #91
The Farewell Fiver
Matt Fitzpatrick (T10: $5 @ +220 on BetMGM)
Matt has had four top-10s in his last six stroke-play starts. He has yet to lose strokes on approach this season and heads back to a course he has finished T4, T14, T39, and T14 in his last four appearances. When it comes to course history and overlapping recent form, he sure Fitz the criteria.
Masters Recap:
- Outright: +$110.65
- FRL: -$14 (so close)
- Placings: +$58.50
- Farewell Fiver(s): +$8
- Total: +$163.15
- Season Total: +$173.15
The Masters was a roaring success and reloaded the bankroll quite nicely. Looking back at Breaking $100 results, we have minimized the damage when losing and maximized our winning weeks. It has been a fantastic start to the series, and we are not stopping now.
As always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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