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About The Model Maniac
A South African native living the American dream. I played college golf in Iowa where I spent four years playing and two coaching, while grabbing 3.5 finance related degrees along the way. As my twitter handle suggests, I am obsessed with my very own excel model. Tournament long matchups are my favorite bet and I love nothing more than a Sunday golf sweat.
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The Model Maniac has written 29 articles so far, you can find them below.
PGA DFS and Betting Outlooks for The "Korn Ferry Fifty" - A Statistical Deep Dive
I have worked tirelessly to compile a database of Korn Ferry Tour data mixed together with PGA and DP World Tour data to help better analyze each golfer's statistical profile at a more detailed level. KFT data is extremely limited, so we have done our best to use it as advantageously as we could. This... Read More
"A Pen.drith Ink.ling" - Back 9 Bets Podcast (Episode 36)
Byron (@TheModelManiac) breaks down the PGA DFS slate for the Fortinet Championship and shares his outright bets. This episode had a special focus on his sneaky favorite Korn Ferry Tour players who will be making their first PGA Tour starts this week. Be sure to subscribe to the Back 9 Bets YouTube Channel, part of RotoBaller... Read More
Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - BMW Championship
It was a weird article last week, with major news on Cam Smith hitting the airwaves shortly after publishing the article. He managed to ignore most outside noise of his imminent departure to LIV and strolled into Sunday as the betting favorite...before getting a two-shot penalty assessed for an improper drop on Saturday, all but... Read More
Tom Kim Gaining On Approach In 15 Consecutive Rounds
Tom Kim has gained strokes on approach in 15 consecutive rounds, gaining 1.4 strokes per round. He has below-average distance off the tee, but since playing on Tour this year, he has averaged a quarter of a stroke off the tee while leading this field in accuracy. His incredibly consistent ball-striking has seen him finish... Read More
Denny McCarthy Continues To Be High-Risk, High-Reward
At $7,000, Denny McCarthy has four top-20 finishes and three missed cuts in his last seven starts. His volatile approach play, complemented by a putter that has gained just shy of 100 strokes this year, makes McCarthy an intriguing cheaper option. He played over-par golf last weekend and still managed to finish T20 as a... Read More
Sam Burns Eyeing Fourth Win Of Season
At a course that will favor length, accurate short irons and great bent-grass putters, Sam Burns has an advantage. His driver has been a little errant lately, but the rest of his game suits this course well and he is going relatively under-owned in his price range. Burns has won three times this season, with... Read More
Sungje Im Offers Discounted Upside
Sungjae Im enters the week with back-to-back second-place finishes and a T12. Since his return from The Open, he has averaged 2.73 strokes gained per round, striking the ball exceptionally while spiking with his putter. He finds himself at a slightly steeper price than public favorite Cameron Young, making him an ideal pivot at half... Read More
Tyrrell Hatton Has Putting Upside
Tyrrell Hatton is understandably low-owned in fantasy, as his top-10 finish at the Wyndham two weeks ago was his first top-10 result since March. Hatton has typically thrived on courses with longer approach shots, which makes his recent improvements on approach tough to trust heading to a course where he will find himself in proximity... Read More
Jon Rahm Lacking Upside Relative To Ownership
Jon Rahm enters the week with the sixth-worst long-term proximity numbers from 100-150 yards, where a player with his length on this golf course will find himself the majority of the time. He is currently projected as one of the highest-owned players in DFS, with others around him who are relatively less-owned offering much more... Read More
Aaron Wise Waiting On Broomstick To Return
Aaron Wise has been striking the ball tremendously and this week's success will hinge on his putter. Wise has been losing on the greens for the last two months, but prior to that he gained a third of a stroke putting in the three months leading up to the U.S. Open. His putting on all... Read More
Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - FedEx St. Jude Championship
The Tom Kim train steamed into the station on Sunday, blitzing the field with a 61 in his final round. We were lucky enough to bet him when his putter roasted the Sedgefield greens, but golf is a weird sport and when things like that happen, we enjoy them as we have been on the... Read More
Joohyung “Tom” Kim Peaking Heading Into Playoffs
After winning his first PGA Tour event last week, Tom Kim has secured himself a spot in the playoffs and as a regular tour member for the foreseeable future. His accuracy off the tee will once again come to his aid at a course with penal Bermuda rough. Although he did most of his damage... Read More
Denny McCarthy A High-Risk, High-Reward Play This Week
After rattling off three top-10 finishes in four starts, Denny McCarthy has missed three of his last four cuts. His putter and around-the-green game have betrayed him in the majority of those missed cuts, which are both areas of his game that he typically relies on. McCarthy will be looking to bounce back at a... Read More
Aaron Wise Struggling On Approach
After an incredible run of approach play in the first half of the year, Aaron Wise has lost strokes on approach in three of his last four starts. At a course that emphasizes the importance of approach play, Wise enters the week with skeptical form in that department. He has been driving the ball with... Read More
Sam Burns Relying On Red Hot Putter
Sam Burns returns to TPC Southwind where he lost in a playoff last year. Since the US Open, Burns has averaged -0.23 strokes off the tee in 14 rounds. What appears to be a concern, may not be that big of an issue as he lost -2.77 strokes off the tee here last year, salvaging... Read More
Cameron Smith Continues To LIV On The Edge
With speculation of Cameron Smith's departure to LIV reaching fever pitch, the Australian remains focused on winning the FedEx Cup Playoffs, refusing to comment on his imminent departure from the tour. His new driver and shot shape have shown signs of promise recently, gaining off the tee in seven of his last eight starts. He... Read More
Jon Rahm Has Incredible Driving Streak Snapped
Jon Rahm has lost strokes off the tee in two of his last four starts. Incredibly, these are the only two times he has lost strokes off the tee on the PGA Tour since the 2019 Tour Championship. He should continue to dominate with his driver this week with hopes that the rest of his... Read More
Sungjae Im Enters Week With Back-To-Back Second-Place Finishes
Sungjae Im enters the week with back-to-back second-place finishes, losing over two strokes putting both Sundays he was in contention. Even with those two abysmal putting performances, he has still gained a stroke per round on the greens in his last duo of starts. His ball-striking has been steady enough to have gained total strokes... Read More
Tyrrell Hatton Gaining Strokes Across The Board
Tyrrell Hatton has only lost strokes on approach in one of his last dozen rounds, averaging 0.91 strokes gained over that period. His stellar iron play has resulted in finishes of T24, T11 and T8 in his last three starts. The rest of Hatton's game is also starting to round out nicely, as he has... Read More
Joohyung Kim Looking To Strike While Irons Are Hot
Joohyung "Tom" Kim tied the course record at Detroit GC on Sunday and in doing so clinched his tour card for next season in just seven PGA Tour starts. He has averaged a scintillating +1.22 with his irons over his last eight rounds and has incredible accuracy off the tee, which should be emphasized at... Read More
Denny McCarthy Looking For Fourth Top-10 In Six Starts
In his last five starts, Denny McCarthy has finished inside the top 10 three times and missed the cut twice. He is currently the definition of "boom or bust". He does have an incredible opportunity to lean on his putter that is averaging +1.02 strokes over his last 36 rounds. McCarthy missed the cut last... Read More
Aaron Wise A Magic Broomstick Away From Victory
In five of his last eight starts where Aaron Wise has gained even a fraction putting, he has not finished worse than T27. His iron play has immense upside, and his driving statistics show an extremely high floor, not losing more than half a stroke off the tee in any tournament since February. Wise has... Read More
Christiaan Bezuidenhout Eyeing First PGA Tour Win
In his 28 rounds since the Masters, Christiaan Bezuidenhout has gained 0.84 strokes putting per round. Five of his last 10 rounds have also flashed approach play that has averaged 2.1 strokes gained, which, when paired with his sensational putting ability, is a recipe for success at this week's Wyndham Championship. Bezuidenhout is steady off... Read More
Sungjae Im Striking The Ball Much Better Recently
After testing positive with COVID-19 a few months ago, it appears that Sungjae Im is starting to return back to his impressive ball-striking form. The South Korean has gained just shy of 14 strokes in ball-striking in his last two starts. However, his putter may still be suffering from some lingering symptoms, as he has... Read More
Tyrrell Hatton A European Conundrum
Tyrrell Hatton has lost strokes in ball-striking in all of his United States starts since the Masters. However, he gained significant strokes in his two most recent starts that took place in Europe. Whether or not that form makes its way back across the pond to North Carolina is yet to be determined. History would... Read More
Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - Wyndham Championship
After taking a week off to cycle across Iowa for seven days, we jump from the bike saddle back into the content one, which is much more endearing to certain areas of the body. While I joined 15,000+ people in a crazy journey across the corn-riddled landscape of the Midwest, Tony Finau joined only a... Read More
Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - 3M Open
Last week's article mentioned, "...hopefully Smith's wispy mullet doesn't get in the way of too many photos of him and the Claret Jug." This week, Cameron Smith is the Champion Golfer of the Year and his mullet behaved as well as his putter, not getting in the way of a single photo! Breaking $100 gets... Read More
Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - The Open
The Scottish Open was another episode of Runaway Bride, starring former bridesmaid, Xander Schauffele, winning his second tournament in as many starts. The flood gates appear to be open and confidence, poise, and bottled-up talent seems to be gushing through the streets of St. Andrews as he eyes his first major and third consecutive win.... Read More
Robert MacIntyre Looking For 10th Straight Made Cut
Regardless of the form Robert MacIntyre enters a major with, he has somehow made the cut in all nine majors he has played in. He has two top-10 finishes in those majors which both came at the only two Open Championships he has played in. If history repeats itself and MacIntyre finds himself inside the... Read More
Keegan Bradley Leads Field In Recent Approach Metrics
After losing 2.7 strokes on the greens in the final round of the U.S. Open, Keegan Bradley has lost strokes putting in six of his last seven rounds. However, he is still averaging plus-0.4 strokes in the last 32 rounds he has played. If he can bounce back with the putter this week, he stands... Read More
