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Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the Memorial Tournament on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Once you are done reading the article, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Memorial Tournament
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Memorial | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 281 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 68% | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | 61% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 52% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.53 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
- Weighted Tee-To-Green (40%)
- Weighted Fast Bentgrass (10%)
- SG: Long Courses With Above Average Ease Fairways (10%)
- SG: Nicklaus Tracks (7.5%)
- Weighted Par-Four (15%)
- Weighted Par-Five (17.5%)
I will take a deeper dive into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are five players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
While this is a DFS article, let's start with a somewhat infused answer that will mix betting and game theory into one seamless solution for what I see when looking at the top of the board. If you notice, all five options in the $10,000 and above range are ranked inside the top-10 in each of my three iterations of modeling for the Memorial Tournament. That might seem common since predictive statistics should naturally heighten the favorites, but this situation occurs far less frequently for me than expected, and even though I'll save the five-minute banter for another day and place, we immediately get a board that will increase the win equity up top while diminishing some of the value underneath. Let's monitor where ownership trends over the next few days, but I am not initially eliminating anyone from the group of Jon Rahm ($11,100), Rory McIlroy ($10,900), Patrick Cantlay ($10,700), Collin Morikawa ($10,400) or Xander Schauffele ($10,200). Each is currently yielding positive ownership leverage, and the resolution to this question might need more time to give a concrete answer. All things being equal, I lean towards an order of Rahm, McIlroy, Schauffele, Cantlay and Morikawa, but that is subject to change.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
Jordan Spieth ($9,700) has performed as one of the top ball-strikers in the world over his past few starts - averaging 9.38 strokes to the field tee to green over the last four tournaments. Unfortunately, things haven't exactly gone smoothly for the typically sure-handed putter from there, as the American has produced negative-2.3 shots with the flat stick over five events. Spieth's 111th-place ranking out of 120 golfers over his last 24 rounds with the putter is discouraging, but he does rank 39th in this field on fast/lightning Bentgrass greens and increases that total to 18th when adding into the mix strokes gained total on similar setups. The 16 percent ownership mark is worth paying attention to since sharp markets seem to be lower on the American than I am for the week, but his fourth-place grade in weighted tee-to-green and second-place total in weighted par-four scoring has made him the number one player in my model for Muirfield Village.
When I remove putting from the equation altogether, Hideki Matsuyama ($9,200) jumps to the top of the list. That probably doesn't come as a shock since the 30-year-old is one of the best players in the world when you remove putting from the fray, but it is one of the reasons I am going to trust his overall tee-to-green game to continue his hot start to 2022. Matsuyama ranks first in this field when recalculating all non-putting numbers to mimic Muirfield, and he is one of only three players to find himself inside the top-10 for both weighted par-four and par-five scoring - with Jon Rahm and Patrick Cantlay being the other two.
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
It is essential to be able to tell the difference between poor course history and lousy form entering that event. When we look at Sungjae Im ($8,900) and why he has failed to produce a top-50 result over three tries at the venue, the numbers point heavily towards horrific form leading up to the week. Im averaged negative-1.76 shots with his irons during the three starts before the missed cut in 2021. He averaged minus-2.68 between a five-tournament span in 2020 with the approach game. And the same thing can be said during his 57th in 2019 - a run that saw him average negative-2.85 with the irons over four tournaments. Im has a different scenario that might be taking place this week after averaging +2.7 at the Charles Schwab and RBC Heritage, and I hope users see the missed cuts and don't dive into the numbers more heavily.
Seamus Power ($8,000) gained in all facets of the game at the PGA Championship and is one of just nine players that graded inside the top-20 in birdie or better percentage and bogey avoidance. If you are curious about the golfers that qualified, the complete list is Cameron Smith, Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im and Seamus Power.
And I continue to like what Mito Pereira ($8,000) is showing from a skillset standpoint. The ownership is worth keeping an eye on if he remains over 15 percent, but he should be considered an option for cash-game contests at the very least.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)
These are all the golfers in the $7,000 section that fit two sets of criteria:
- The golfer must be top-65 in some portion of the model.
- The player must be either a positive value against DK price or against ownership from overall or upside.
I condensed the list down to top-50 in either the overall rank or upside portion because of the limited field. If you see anyone that is negative in both categories, they qualified when running it for upside. Si Woo Kim ($7,600), Adam Scott ($7,700), Aaron Wise ($7,500), Rickie Fowler ($7,200), Marc Leishman ($7,500), Cameron Davis ($7,200) and Luke List ($7,100) are a few of my favorite early leans.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
We are still early in the week. I will continue to run numbers as more ownership comes in for these $6,000 golfers.
These are all the golfers in the $6,000 section that fit two sets of criteria:
- The golfer must be top-65 in some portion of the model.
- The player must be either a positive value against DK price or against ownership.
Lucas Glover ($6,500), Erik Van Rooyen ($6,600), Matt Jones ($6,700) and Brendan Steele ($6,600) would be my four favorite plays as of Monday afternoon.
Win Big With RotoBaller
Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
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