RADIO
Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the U.S. Open on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Once you are done reading the article, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - U.S. Open
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
The Country Club In Brookline
7,264 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Poa + Bent Mix
With a full-blown revolution occurring in the world of golf, it is only natural that we are heading to the outskirts of Boston to witness the gentleman's version of the "Boston Tee Party." One-hundred and fifty-six players will be fighting for history during the 122nd rendition of the U.S. Open, but the storylines couldn't be further from the actual performances that will be taking place on the course, as the Saudi-backed LIV Golf Invitational Series has pushed the PGA Tour into a corner and placed them in a do-or-DIE situation when it comes to ultimate supremacy. As is the case in all great battles, the location of the first fight will always go down in history, and the Country Club in Brookline might not provide the shootout that you would expect to see in a firefight, but it will supply the bloodshed of a battleground that is looking to cause ultimate destruction to the field.
At 7,264 yards, Brookline is a Par 70 venue that falls somewhere between sadistic and overly complicated on the scale. That answer can sometimes place us on the fringe of a track that teeters from being a proper test to one that is unfairly challenging, but the landscape of Brookline is masterfully pieced together, accentuating the course features and beautifully molding it into one diabolical examination. There are 70-foot trees that stymie shots missed to the wrong angle, strategically placed bunkers and thick rough that prevent advancement, and sinister green complexes that not only rank as some of the smallest you will see all year but also the trickiest for a few reasons. For starters, the two-tiered layout can create nightmarish speed on your putts, potentially causing balls to funnel off these false fronts that slope from back to front. But maybe even more importantly than that, it will be an extension of the iron play since the green in regulation percentage will be significantly reduced.
Let's dive into things a little deeper by going hole-by-hole in the section below, and then we will get into how we can use that data to our advantage when making a statistical model.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Brookline | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | N/A | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | N/A | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | N/A | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | N/A | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | N/A | 0.55 |
Brookline Hole-By-Hole
Hole #1 - Par-Four - 488 Yards
The hole is positioned in a fashion to push everything to the left. Bunkers will come into play for those trying to take on the dogleg, and thick rough can be found on the right for those who bail out. Like most holes, the slope of the green runs from back to front, meaning anything that comes up short has the potential to work its way off the surface.
Hole #2 - Par-Three - 215 Yards
We get an elevated green with runoff to the front. Distance control with your long iron will be vital, and anything that doesn't find the surface will be in peril because of the slope, rough and bunkers that come into play.
Hole #3 - Par-Four - 499 Yards
Hole number three gives us a semi-blind tee shot with a downhill presence that will create extra rollout. The gap tightens to find the fairway the further you hit it, but the second shot shouldn't be as challenging if you locate the shortgrass because of the relatively large green complex. A large pond does sit behind the green for those that hit a flier, but it would take a horrible case of distance control to encounter the trouble.
Hole #4 - Par-Four - 493 Yards
Another elevated hole, as this time we get a raised tee with a completely blind tee shot. An 80-foot tree blocks the entire right side of the green complex, but a broad landing area for the fairway should allow the field to avoid trouble if they get used to the hole in practice.
Hole #5- Par-Four - 310 Yards
If we are looking for birdie chances, consider this the first real opportunity of the round. Players will have options off the tee but expect a driver to be the club of choice. The false front will repel shots that don't make it into the center of the surface, and thick rough and substantial bunkering will surround the small green.
Hole #6- Par-Three - 192 Yards
We get another false front, but this time a front-to-back slope. It is the largest green on the course at 6,556 square feet, and we will see a plethora of balls funnel to the center of the green.
Hole #7- Par-Four - 375 Yards
Brookline does an excellent job of providing options off the tee for players, and we see nothing different on the seventh. I would expect the field to use a ton of drivers, meaning short iron proximity will be crucial on this scoring chance, but it is worth noting that a right to left slope of the fairway could bring trees into play. Fairway bunkers are present to the right, and deep greenside bunkers can come into play for errant approach shots.
Hole #8- Par-Five - 557 Yards
One of only two par-fives on the course, the eighth will be the most gettable because of the elevation change and friendly fairways. With that being said, the extensive false front of the putting surface is the deepest on the track, and it will take two great shots to give yourself an honest look at making an eagle.
Hole #9- Par-Four - 427 Yards
Players can choose to lay back off the tee or be aggressive. Fairways roll downhill, which can bring a penalty area into play, and we get a very slight slope from back to front on the green. I'd imagine the risk is not worth the reward with the first shot, and I wouldn't be surprised if the field chooses to be cautious more often than not.
Hole #10 - Par-Four - 499 Yards
We get an elevated tee where long hitters can reach the penalty area. To add to the trouble, we also get a raised green that is surrounded by rough and bunkers. There is a significant slope to the front, and gnarly looking rough if you miss the surface.
Hole #11 - Par-Three - 131 Yards
The hole is extremely short, but we have penalty areas on three sides of the green and four considerable-sized bunkers. There is movement in all directions on the surface.
Hole #12 - Par-Four - 473 Yards
The drive zone can be narrow because of the bunkers. Look for some golfers to face a blind second shot if they don't carry it far enough off the tee, and the fact that it has the second smallest greens on the course only adds to the headache.
Hole #13 - Par-Four - 450 Yards
The terrain of the setup slopes to the right, whereas the actual tee shot doglegs to the left. Add this to the list of blind drives encountered over 18 holes, and you must avoid the rough off the tee if you want any chance to score. There is a pond you have to play your second shot over, and the green complex can appear small because of the 75-foot tree to the left.
Hole #14 - Par-Five - 619 Yards
What can make a 619-yard hole even lengthier? Oh, yea. Let's have it play directly into the prevailing wind. Missing the fairway will create an extensive lay-up yardage and will also include a completely blind third shot into another elevated green. The putting surface is two-tiered, small and experiences extreme runoff areas.
Hole #15 - Par-Four - 510 Yards
Stop me if you have heard this before...a downhill blind tee shot that features open fairways and the second-largest green from back to front. It is also the deepest green at 40 yards, so while the 15th hole is the longest par-four, I wouldn't say it is the most challenging.
Hole #16 - Par-Three - 202 Yards
The hole can play as much as 33 yards longer off the tee because of the multiple tee-off areas. Deep bunkers and substantial rough surround the surface.
Hole #17 - Par-Four - 373 Yards
Numerous routes can be taken with your first shot. Bunkers to the left and rough to the right will shrink the landing zone, and we run into another 72-foot tree that blocks the right side of the putting surface. More back-to-front slope mixed with the smallest green of the 18 will make this two-tiered setup more complicated than it would have otherwise been for the competitors. Still, though, consider this a birdie chance.
Hole #18 - Par-Four - 451 Yards
There are bunkers to the left that were repositioned during the restoration, and deep sand traps near the surface of the green that will make iron control critical.
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
- Weighted Tee To Green (22.5%) - I usually don't build this specific statistic in such a rudimentary fashion since I like recalculating these totals to 100% mimic the course on hand, but with the outside-the-box narratives I took in other areas, I decided to play things safe for a venue we have no long-term data on for the week. I still ran my numbers to include a two-year baseline in the projection output, but 50% went towards approach, 25% off the tee and the final 25% around the green. I figured that provided me with my best chance to pinpoint the golfers with extended levels of consistency, not to mention that I then mixed in just the last 24 rounds separately to see any risers in the field.
- Strokes Gained Total Difficult Courses (10%) - Consider this a by-the-book category that goes hand-in-hand with a U.S. Open test. Players that can handle challenging conditions will be at an advantage, and the 10% weight should help highlight those names.
- Weighted Strokes Gained Total Poa/Bent (10%) - Eighty-five percent of that calculation came from a tee-to-green aspect on Poa and Bent courses over the past 50 rounds, where the final 15% marginally added in putting on those same green complexes. As everyone knows by now, I am not a person who looks much into putting, but infusing the splits into the data is a way to make the research unique.
- Weighted Around The Green + Sand Save Percentage + Bogey Avoidance (17.5%) - It is a wordy title to say I am looking for players that will be able to limit mistakes. I separated the three categories individually before combining them into one sortable answer, with each metric receiving 33.33% of the importance.
- Weighted Total Driving (12.5%) - I looked at the results from prolonged, arduous tracks over the years and then siphoned in the distance totals as a secondary metric to the mix.
- Greens In Regulation Mixed With Long Iron (17.5%) - With 13 holes requiring a long iron for the first or second shot, it will be of the utmost importance to pinpoint quality approach play from 175+ yards. The thick rough and deep bunkers are not to be messed with because of the difficulty they possess, and golfers that can find the putting surface will be at a massive advantage.
- Proximity From 175+ Yards + Total Driving (10%) - Consider this a double-down of the two most critical factors. If you can find the player that will best complete the 1-2 step of hitting the fairway and then the green, you will discover who is walking out of Brookline with the trophy.
I will take a deeper dive into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are six players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
One of the things you will hear throughout the industry this week is how soft pricing is for major championship events. There is no arguing that stance since users can freely stack the top of the board without suffering the ramifications down beneath when "lineup fillers" are more like mid-end options for a typical tournament. But if everyone in the space is saying the same thing, don't we start to run ourselves into a situation where lineups are being overly duplicated, especially when you consider that ownership tends to condense in similar spots?
These are the sort of game theory questions you always need to ask yourself when putting together your builds for the week. Cash-game and single-entry contests don't fit into this narrative since ownership is an afterthought to construction, but I am speaking more about GPP builds for those trying to take down this week's "Milly Maker" on DraftKings. None of that indicates that any singular player should be viewed as an off-limit choice since separating a build is never more than one outlier pick away from being unique, but it does imply that the chalkier you find yourself up top, the more of a variation you will need to create in other areas. That answer can come from multiple scenarios, including leaving extra money on the table, but let's see if we can't decipher the board in front of us for the U.S. Open.
The two potential pivot selections in the $10,000 range are Cameron Smith ($10,200) and Collin Morikawa ($10,000). It just so happens that my model agrees with the general public that the duo is overpriced because of the red flags that they bring to the table, so my version of getting unique will likely have to come elsewhere. Smith's success at contests like the Masters has been aided at times because of the wide-open nature of the facility, which in turn creates less of a red flag for the baseline projection my model has that suggests him to be the 95th-ranked player in this tournament when it comes to total driving, and as everyone knows by now, a U.S. Open test does the opposite and demands off-the-tee acumen.
As far as it goes for Morikawa, he does possess more intrigue because of his ability to get hot with his irons and hit a ton of fairways, but the short game might have more question marks than answers - evident by him placing 122nd in this field when it comes to my reweighed category that includes around the green, sand save and bogey avoidance numbers. If he can find fairways and greens, the upside is there for another top-10 run at this tournament, but there is more implosion potential because of the shaky short game.
And then that leaves us with Scottie Scheffler ($11,300), Justin Thomas ($10,900), Jon Rahm ($10,800) and Rory McIlroy ($10,500). I don't believe it is necessary to start in this range since pricing has pushed a ton of stars down into the $9,000 section, but it is hard to envision Scheffler, Thomas and McIlroy not being near the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday. The three are ranked inside the top-four golfers in the field when running this event for upside over the past 24 rounds, and the overall safety that each brings to the table should highlight them as some of the better cash-game targets for the week.
Rahm, on the other hand, isn't as lucky when projecting this tournament versus his fellow competitors. The Spaniard is ranking as a negative trajectory in all the metrics I ran over the past 24 rounds, including a problematic 74th-place grade when looking into golfers that should avoid mistakes, and the fiery attitude that he brings to the table could be on full display if the iron play doesn't bail him out. I usually don't have any issues with taking a chance on the second-ranked player in the world since we know the upside can always equate to a victory, but his 14% ownership mark feels like it is playing with fire.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
There is a ton to like in the $9,000s - both from a reduction standpoint and an outlier point of view.
Xander Schauffele ($9,600) has a tournament history that reads like an intoxicating romance novel, where it is going to stimulate your curiosity, but it never quite gets the job done in the fashion that you would have hoped. Five straight top-seven finishes at the event will give us the second-best tournament history mark on my sheet, but the main difference comes into play when we look at Brooks Koepka ($8,700), who turned two of those close calls into wins. Schauffele's form and history have propelled him towards being the second-highest projected player in terms of popularity on the board, but he eventually needs to finish the job when he gets close because there is only so much fantasizing we can do.
With all the hatred taking place towards players that departed for LIV, Dustin Johnson ($9,400) will likely turn into the lowest owned golfer from $8,000 or above. There are some concerns with how the metrics shake out from top-to-bottom, but the high-end results in specific categories show why he is not only a past winner of this tournament but also a golfer that has provided additional top-six showings since 2018. Johnson ranks second in this field when looking into how a golfer has performed on challenging courses that offer thick rough, and he is also the top-ranked producer for the U.S. Open when we combine long iron play with the driving statistics. The short game is a concern, but the lack of ownership gives us an option to consider that will be entirely under the radar.
To round out this group, we have a mixture of public intrigue to discuss between Will Zalatoris ($9,300), Hideki Matsuyama ($9,100) and Shane Lowry ($9,000). Zalatoris has been an enigma for me in the past since I always wait for the short game to bite him when push comes to shove, but the ball-striking tends to place him near the first page of the leaderboard - a result good enough at his weekly salary cost to warrant consideration. My one concern is that the American has been boom-or-bust lately, suggesting that if the wrong version of him shows up that 17% of users could be in trouble, but it is hard to ignore the weighted tee-to-green metric on my model that places him second in this field.
Our last memory of Hideki Matsuyama took place at the Memorial - a tournament he was disqualified because of an improper marking on the club, but let's not have a manufacturer malfunction take away from what the 13th-ranked player in the world has accomplished over the past season. Matsuyama has won two of his last 10 completed tournaments, and the five consecutive top-26 finishes at the U.S. Open should only heighten the intrigue for a golfer the public seems to be looking the other way to start the week.
And what else is there to say about Shane Lowry at this point? Yes, he will be popular on DFS sites, but 13 consecutive made cuts, to go along with nine of those results coming inside the top-15, is about as safe as you can get for a professional golfer. For 'One and Done' contests and things of that nature, I probably prefer saving the Irishman for the Open Championship if you still have him at your disposal, but his top-five marks historically at difficult courses and overall scrambling numbers should give us a player with a higher floor than most.
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
Joaquin Niemann ($8,900) has provided back-to-back top-31 results over his last two U.S. Open appearances, and the current form looks impressive when we dive into his four straight top-25s on tour. The popularity of the Chilean will be worth monitoring since 16.2% places him seventh as of Monday afternoon, but if we are comparing him directly versus Cameron Young ($8,800) at 13.2%, I am much more inclined to remove Young from my player pool over Niemann for a few reasons. For starters, I incorrectly faded Young at the PGA Championship for every explanation I am about to mention again, but at what point is the volatility too much for what is frankly an over-owned golfer? We know that at his best, the American is a top-five machine that churns out fantasy points in bunches, but the 12-over 84 round at the Memorial is what can come into play when the bad creeps through the curtains. The short-term numbers highlight the potential we all know he has, but I am fine making Young beat me in the DFS market and trying to get my exposure elsewhere.
And then we find ourselves with some extremely challenging decisions to be made at the bottom of this group. Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,500), Sam Burns ($8,300), Tony Finau ($8,200) and Max Homa ($8,100) are all values when comparing my model to their DFS price, and we see those totals increase even more than that when looking directly at Fitzpatrick and Homa over only the past 24 rounds. Each of the two golfers grades inside the top-eight in one of the two iterations between upside and safety during that specific timeframe, and I don't believe it is that far-fetched to try and stack a portion of the group together into a build and round-out some lineups from there. You will need to be cognizant of collective ownership since all are trending above 13%, but it is a way to get unique in various variations of that process.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)
The image above shows a handful of the players I am considering early in the week, but let me rapid-fire off some takes on a few of those choices to provide more insight into the process.
Corey Conners ($7,900) - Both the short-term and the long-term form from
Conners is pushing him into GPP consideration, thanks to his roughly 10 percent projection. The Canadian has yet to find any success in the U.S. Open throughout his career, but I think it might be time for him to change that tune around because of the pristine ball-striking numbers that place him 14th over his past 24 rounds when combining long iron play and total driving.
Aaron Wise ($7,800) - I want to make sure to lean on golfers in the $7,000 section that will garner two-year success in my model to go along with recent form, and Wise fits that bill to a TEE. While I promise that is the last golf pun I will be making in this article, the intelligent choice of putting Wise into your player pool is something that you should consider. The upside he possesses (13th overall) over his past 24 rounds exceeds his 16th-place rank over my two-year running sample size.
Mito Pereira ($7,800) - How will Mito Pereira handle his first major since the terrible collapse on the 72nd hole at the PGA Championship? Only time will tell, but Pereira continues to trend towards being a staple of my top-10 on most models I have built over the past few months.
Sungjae Im ($7,700) - DraftKings made a mess of this price by placing Im at $7,700 and not $8,700. Expect the South Korean to go off as the most popular play on the board, albeit rightfully so.
Sebastian Munoz ($7,400) - A steady climber for me when I condense the sample size to a smaller version, Munoz ranks 17 spots better than expected in my recalculated timeframe with his driver and long iron play.
Harold Varner III ($7,300) - If we just used a statistical fit for Brookline, there might not be a better value than Varner. The American places 21st overall in my model over the past two years, and we see him jump to an impressive 13th when running this for upside over the last 24 rounds.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
No names were removed from Kurt Kitayama down to Stewart Cink in the $6,000 section when we are talking about the players that graded best. Everyone else found themselves outside the top 70 golfers in the field, and I mostly would try to avoid this range if I could. In my opinion, not only does the win equity shrink to around zero, but the upside is also greatly diminished.
Win Big With RotoBaller
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